海角大神

Venezuelan President聽Nicol谩s Maduro announced this week that if his government鈥檚聽鈥淏olivarian Revolution鈥� were ever threatened, his supporters would turn to weapons.

鈥淲hat we failed to achieve with votes, we would do with weapons,鈥� he said at a rally drumming up support for his plan to rewrite the Constitution.

The statement was a further blow to Venezuela鈥檚 struggling democracy.聽But it also spotlighted the inability of regional neighbors to agree on a resolution condemning the Andean nation鈥檚 humanitarian emergency and human rights abuses.聽

For several years, neighboring countries and international actors, even the pope, have tried to help stem Venezuela鈥檚 mounting crises. Most recently, Mexico has taken the reins, standing at the forefront of the Organization of American States (OAS) to call for a resolution.

鈥淢exico will not stop using all diplomatic channels, including the OAS, in order to have a constructive impact on achieving a peaceful solution to the restoration of democracy鈥� in Venezuela, Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray said at the University of Miami last month. 鈥淲e have a country that, in fact, is no longer a functional democracy.鈥�

It鈥檚 a somewhat unusual position for Mexico to take on. Geographically closer countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Panama arguably have more at stake, with tens of thousands of Venezuelans fleeing across the border. For decades, the United States 鈥� often controversially 鈥� has been at the helm when it comes to managing regional unrest. And there鈥檚 an irony in Mexico calling out rights abuses elsewhere when its own human rights record is under scrutiny.

Mexico has its reasons, analysts say. They range from the desire to lower the rising levels of government-backed violence in this overwhelmingly democratic region to a hope to position itself as a stronger regional leader, at a moment when many Latin American countries are tied up in their own聽political and economic crises.

But there鈥檚 an added, more local, benefit: Mexico鈥檚 2018 presidential race.

Perennial populist candidate Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador, who lost the 2006 presidential election by a hair and set up his own parallel government in protest, is considered a top contender. By highlighting Venezuela鈥檚 woes, and linking them to its leftist leadership, the ruling party in Mexico can send a message that it understands and knows how to fix 鈥渓eftist errors,鈥� analysts say.聽

鈥淢exican government officials have been 鈥� forewarning of a L贸pez Obrador presidency,鈥� says Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, senior fellow of the Mexico Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. 鈥淭hey have been blunt enough to say he would be Mexico鈥檚 Maduro; that this would be a Venezuela-like scenario unfolding.鈥�

Anti-establishment threat

It鈥檚 not the first time Venezuela has been pulled into Mexico鈥檚 national politics. In 2005, when running for president and leading in the polls, L贸pez Obrador was compared to Venezuela鈥檚 then-President Hugo Ch谩vez. 鈥淚 see聽authoritarianism in them both,鈥� said opponent Roberto Madrazo, candidate for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). (Both lost to Felipe Calder贸n, of the center-right National Action Party (PAN).聽

Back then, L贸pez Obrador was accused of taking campaign funding from Ch谩vez. More recently, he has been聽lampooned by public figures for not explicitly condemning the situation in Venezuela.

鈥淚t was definitely a scare tactic 鈥� a strategy [the two main political parties] used to instill fear in the electorate,鈥� Mr. Peshard-Sverdrup says of the 2006 election. 鈥淟贸pez Obrador kind of played into that, with his [populist] discourse,鈥� and by drawing attention to social benefits programming he implemented while mayor of Mexico City, such as stipends for single mothers, senior citizens, and people with disabilities.

But times have changed. Not only is L贸pez Obrador a different candidate, but the political environment has changed.

鈥淗e鈥檚 AMLO 2.0,鈥� says Peshard-Sverdrup, using L贸pez Obrador鈥檚 nickname. 鈥淭his is the AMLO that has tempered [himself], moderated his discourse, pacted with business elite by creating an advisory counsel, who鈥檚 been traveling to the US,鈥� he says.

And the Mexican electorate, like many voters around the world, are showing anti-establishment preferences. There鈥檚 a sense that Mexicans are growing disenchanted with the country鈥檚 main parties, including the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), PAN, and the ruling PRI.

The PRI, which was in power from 1929 until 2000, won the 2012 election on a promise that it had reinvented itself for modern Mexico. But it has been hit with multiple, high-profile corruption allegations over the past five years. It鈥檚 still reeling from a botched investigation into the disappearance of 43 teaching students in 2014, and the high-profile reforms passed early on in the administration, in areas like education and telecommunications, have largely fallen out of view. And a greater pall was cast by this month鈥檚 allegations that the government paid a private company for spyware that they used to illegally track the communications of individuals exposing corruption within the government or fighting for citizen rights.聽

International criticism聽

Mexico is not unique in using Venezuela as a local warning about the risks of voting for the left.

More 鈥済overnments and more people [are] repudiating everything that鈥檚 happening in Venezuela,鈥漵ays Dmitris Pantoulas, a political analyst and Venezuela expert. But many politicians in 鈥渃ountries where the left has a chance at winning elections鈥� are attacking Venezuela 鈥渇or internal reasons of the left versus the right,鈥� he adds.

He points to Spain: During last year鈥檚 general elections, news stories and campaign messaging聽emphasized alleged links between Venezuela鈥檚 leadership and Spain鈥檚 new, leftist Podemos party. Similar stories have been published about L贸pez Obrador, with headlines like, 鈥� 鈥楳essiah鈥� or 鈥楳exican Hugo Ch谩vez鈥�: Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador聽closer than ever to the presidency.鈥�

Regardless of the reasons for calling out聽Venezuela鈥檚 government, however, many say it鈥檚 the right thing to do.

鈥淭here is a genuine desire to see the Venezuelan crisis end, and to see a more favorable outcome for the Venezuelan people,鈥� says Andr茅s Rozental, Mexico鈥檚 former deputy foreign minister and the founding president of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations. 鈥淓very country has some issues regarding human rights, but that doesn鈥檛 disqualify them from looking at what鈥檚 going on around them.鈥�

鈥淚t may be the opposite,鈥� he says. Mexico 鈥渉aving a position on issues in the region or in the world strengthens, I think, the position of those who believe that things need to change in Mexico.鈥�