海角大神

Like most Cubans鈥� apartments, Yanela Duran Noa鈥檚 four-bedroom went nearly unchanged for almost six decades. She didn鈥檛 have the income to upgrade the outdated fixtures or replace sagging furniture.

That changed last year, when the island saw an influx of US tourism. In 2012, Ms. Duran, had received government permission to rent one bedroom in her central Havana home; in 2016, she started booking through Airbnb, for $30 per night.

鈥淭he room was rented to capacity. Now, before a current month ends, the next month is already booked,鈥� she says from her home, which overlooks a hodgepodge of dirty concrete buildings interspersed with freshly painted ones in shades of blue and green. She finally has the money to remodel three bathrooms and three bedrooms, and has plans to apply for permission to rent two more rooms.

Across Havana, cracks in intricately painted tile floors, crooked window panes eroded by decades of hurricane seasons, and bedroom fans that buzz as loudly as prop planes but barely circulate the air are all part of the allure for many Americans, who envision Cuba as a land stuck in time. That image helped draw more than 600,000 US tourists last year, after former President Barack Obama loosened individual travel restrictions.

But the uncertainty surrounding President Trump鈥檚 executive order last Friday has Cubans in and outside the tourism sector concerned about what鈥檚 next. The new rules aren鈥檛 a total rollback to pre-Obama restrictions, but will once again limit individual US travel to Cuba, and aim to clamp down on money going to the Cuban military, which runs most hotels on the island. And, in a diplomatic relationship better known for its animosity than trust, the move has symbolic importance: not only in US politics, but for Cuba鈥檚 own internal reforms, analysts say.

鈥淐uban tourism isn鈥檛 solely dependent on the US market, but it鈥檚 an increasingly important market,鈥� says Michael Bustamante, an assistant professor of history at Florida International University. Even so, the policy change still 鈥渉as the potential to hurt people 鈥� the average people who rent a room or own a snack bar,鈥� he says.

鈥淵ou鈥檙e taking the sails out of a kind of momentum that was important for individual lives and had an important resonance in internal politics,鈥� Dr. Bustamante says. 鈥淐uba is in a delicate moment.鈥�

Human rights debate

One of the central reasons cited in Mr. Trump鈥檚 change in US-Cuba policy has to do with human rights, with the president announcing in Miami on Friday that he would 鈥渆xpose the crimes of the Castro regime and stand with the Cuban people in their struggle for freedom.鈥�

The government has a long track record of citizen repression, and critics of Obama鈥檚 rapprochement have pointed to the lack of improvement on political prisoners or press censorship since then as reasons to once again roll back US-citizen spending or business investment.

鈥淭he profits from investment and tourism flow directly to the military,鈥� Trump said Friday. 鈥淭he regime takes the money and owns the industry. The outcome of the last administration's executive action has only been more repression.鈥�

Some analysts, however, argue that the rollback will do little to improve Cubans鈥� rights. Jos茅 Miguel Vivanco, director of Human Rights Watch鈥檚 Americas division, argues that important changes in civil liberties and human rights took place in the lead-up to the diplomatic thaw and the subsequent two and a half years. This includes more space for human rights activists, academics, and bloggers to speak out and generate debate, he says.

鈥淭he unilateral sanctions over more than half a century imposed by Washington [have] been a total failure,鈥� Mr. Vivanco said on a call with the Atlantic Council in the lead up to Trump鈥檚 announcement last week, calling it 鈥渉ighly unrealistic鈥� to expect different results from Trump鈥檚 rollback.

Carlos Alzugaray Treto, a former Cuban ambassador and retired professor at the University of Havana, casts doubt on the administration鈥檚 human rights argument. Trump is catering to Cuban-Americans opposed to any interaction with the Castro government, he says, and human rights 鈥渁re simply used for justifying鈥� the change.

鈥淭he damage is going to be felt by Cubans more than the military, more than the government,鈥� he says.

New opportunities

The diplomatic thaw hasn鈥檛 transformed the country. But it has provided an important influx of money 鈥撎齛nd opportunity 鈥� on the island just 90 miles off the coast of Florida, many Cubans and analysts agree. And the timing was key: it provided a new lifeline to Cuba as the economy stuttered, and as it lost most help from a key benefactor, Venezuela, thanks to that country鈥檚 own economic and political crises.

President Ra煤l Castro took over from his brother, Fidel, in 2008, and attempted to revive the flailing economy through gradual reforms like allowing citizens to open their own businesses or buy and sell property. Today, there are an estimated 500,000 self-employed Cubans. Many work in tourism: setting up restaurants in their homes, driving tourists around town in their decades-old cars, or acting as translators or tour guides.

Loosened US restrictions 鈥渉elped some of the changes already in place [in Cuba鈥檚 economy] to a new degree,鈥� Bustamante says.

Duran says it鈥檚 not just the rental-room income that has benefitted her family, but the relationships she鈥檚 made with visitors, most of whom are from the United States.

鈥淭ourism in Cuba [today] is very different than years past,鈥� which she felt was defined by听foreigners seeking prostitutes or drugs, she says. 鈥淭oday, tourists are here because they want to know Cuba. They want to know firsthand what is happening here,鈥� she says.

Airbnb will remain a presence on the island, where roughly 22,000 properties are currently listed. As of April 2015, some $40 million听has been paid to Cubans renting their homes.

But even outside the tourism sector, the increase in visitors has made a small but palpable difference. Walking through the candy-colored building-flanked streets of Havana鈥檚 center, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, social communications graduate Katia Morfa says she thinks that the two-year thaw may not have delivered on Cubans鈥� high expectations, but that 鈥渢urning back will only harm citizens.鈥�

鈥淭he image of [Havana] has changed, the private sector is changing, and that means individual growth,鈥� Ms. Morfa says. 鈥淸These are] developments that were strengthened by the thaw.鈥�

Time of transition

It matters when it comes to internal politics as well, analysts say.

鈥淭o the extent that there are better international relations, more rapprochement, and normality with the US, the more possibility there is that those who want to see change in Cuba will have more opportunity to come into power,鈥� says human rights activist Miriam Luisa Leiva Viamonte, who previously worked for the Ministry of Exterior Relations.

Mr. Castro has announced plans to step down as head of state in 2018,听and the current first vice president, Miguel D铆az-Canel, is considered a likely successor.听Economically, it is also a time of change. Cuba鈥檚 gross domestic product shrank by about one percent last year, and the country is trying to make significant reforms, like changing its dual-currency system.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a delicate process of transition,鈥� says Bustamante, noting divides in the government between those who embrace further economic reforms and those who don鈥檛. Against that backdrop, any US changes Havana can interpret as 鈥渉ostile鈥� may affect Cuba鈥檚 鈥渄omestic process in a way that doesn鈥檛 serve the kind of ... gradual but sustained road to real reform that most Cubans would like to see.鈥澨�