海角大神

Several weeks of political turmoil revolving around Brazil鈥檚 Senate cumulated in its president, Renan Calheiros, being indicted on corruption charges on Monday, adding him to the list of politicians accused in Operation Car Wash,聽the country鈥檚 largest ever corruption investigation.

The new allegations are likely to make Senator Calheiros lose his mandate and came after a clash between Brazil鈥檚 legislative and judiciary branches, where Calheiros鈥檚 role has been central.

Politicians and citizens alike are holding their breath amid the threat of a constitutional crisis, raising questions about Brazil鈥檚 political future and the long-term legacy of the anticorruption crusade. With more prosecutions to come and presidential and congressional elections not scheduled until late 2018, Brazilian politics may be plagued with instability not seen in the young democracy since the years around the fall of the dictatorship in 1985.

But while the future is up for grabs, one thing has changed: Corrupt politicians, who for decades avoided prosecution with impunity, are going to prison because of wide-ranging judicial and police investigations.聽

鈥淲e鈥檙e getting to a point where people are saying, 鈥楾his thing doesn鈥檛 work, destroy it all,鈥欌�� says Heni Ozi Cukier, a political scientist at the School聽of Advertising and Marketing (ESPM) in S茫o Paulo. Brazilians鈥� dissatisfaction parallels a worldwide disgust with the political establishment, he says, citing Donald Trump鈥檚 election in the United States.

Delicate balance for court聽

The battle between the Senate president and the Supreme Court infuriated the nation last week. After being indicted by the Supreme Court on charges that a construction company was paying for Calheiros鈥檚 child support from an extramarital affair, a single judge ordered his removal from office. But Calheiros defied the order, causing the full Supreme Court to put it to a vote. The court voted to keep him in his position.聽

鈥淭he overall perception was that Renan [Calheiros] got away,鈥� says Professor Cukier. 鈥淭he Supreme Court was left with a very complicated choice 鈥� either fulfill the wishes of the masses [and remove him from power], or do their best to guarantee minimal institutional instability,鈥� he says.

Then on Monday, Brazil鈥檚 prosecutor general announced Calheiros would be indicted in Car Wash, a separate charge.

Car Wash has become a take-no-prisoners investigation, dismantling a decades-old kickback scheme between the state-owned oil company, Petrobras, and construction giants. The investigation has resulted in the imprisonment of some of the nation鈥檚 wealthiest businessmen and high-ranking politicians.

Calheiros and a federal deputy from his party were accused of corruption and laundering $240,000, which originated from Petrobras, in exchange for political support to maintain a company director in his post.

Car Wash has prompted pushback from lawmakers in the form of political maneuvers, crafting legislation to undermine prosecutors鈥� and judges鈥� authority. The conflict between sectors of government have strained checks and balances and highlighted Brazil鈥檚 weakening institutions.

The build-up of charges against Calheiros comes at a politically charged moment. On Tuesday, the Senate passed controversial austerity measures, known at PEC-55, which will cap government spending for 20 years. The legislation is key for President Michel Temer, who took power six months ago when Dilma Rousseff was impeached. Without Calheiros at the helm, the legislation could have been derailed.

Calheiros denies the allegations brought against him in Car Wash and lashed out at the prosecutor general on Tuesday morning, saying he is being 鈥渧indictive,鈥� acting 鈥渁gainst the Senate,鈥� and that his actions are 鈥減urely political.鈥�

Experts say Calheiros is not likely to escape prosecution much longer.

After Tuesday鈥檚 vote on the austerity measures, which sparked protests around the nation, 鈥淩enan will be gone into oblivion,鈥� says David Fleischer, a professor emeritus at the University of Bras铆lia.

Brazilians in awe聽

For Sandro Costa, who has participated in anticorruption protests over the past two years, the political maneuvers are indeed worrying for the success of the investigation. Nevertheless, the sight of top politicians and wealthy businessmen in jail was unthinkable until recently.

鈥淚鈥檓 left with my mouth wide open,鈥� says Mr. Costa, an engineer in Rio de Janeiro. 鈥淚 never, ever imagined I would see something like this. This means Brazil is on its way to being a better country, even if it鈥檚 still in the long term.鈥�

鈥淲hat has happened with Car Wash is irreversible,鈥� says Cukier, the political scientist in S茫o Paulo. 鈥淧oliticians will be afraid to pull anything corrupt or illegal people they know the federal police will be after them.鈥�

Operation Car Wash and Brazil鈥檚 political crisis have a long road ahead. The nation awaits plea bargains from executives of the construction company at the center of the investigations, Odebrecht. On Monday, details of one of the 77 plea bargains were leaked to the press. In exchange for a lesser sentence, a company official cited more than 50 politicians in his deposition of criminal activity at Oderbrecht. This includes President Temer, who was listed for soliciting $3 million in illegal campaign donations. [Editor's note: This paragraph was corrected to show the criminal activity was linked to Oderbrecht.]

Many observers have already started to speculate about how the corruption investigations will affect the 2018 elections. Strong support from the public for the investigation has come hand-in-hand with an ever-growing rejection of the political establishment.

鈥淭he public is so disillusioned about everything, they might fall for crazy speeches and crazy narratives,鈥� Cukier says. 鈥淏razil can be victim to this worldwide trend [of political rejection], but our institutions don鈥檛 have the ability to absorb the shock. Nothing is impossible, it鈥檚 totally unpredictable.鈥�