海角大神

Fidel Castro spent much of his final decade planning for the survival of his 1959 Communist revolution once its towering psychological and ideological pillar 鈥� himself 鈥� passed on.

With Mr. Castro鈥檚 death Friday, 11 million Cubans, some 2 million Cuban-Americans, and the rest of the world are about to see how good a job he did.

Virtually no one foresees abrupt change for the Caribbean island nation, either politically or economically. But with the economy in crisis and failing to produce employment for vast numbers of Cubans, many regional analysts expect a scenario under which economic reform accelerates even as the one-party political system remains untouched.

鈥淚n Cuba they鈥檝e been thinking about transition and 鈥榯he day after鈥� for a long long time, but that debate has focused on to what degree to open up the economy and whether to go farther toward a Vietnam or China model,鈥� says Eduardo Gamarra, an expert in Latin American politics and democratization at Florida International University in Miami.

鈥淏ut there really has been no parallel attention to what political reforms might accompany the economic change,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭hey believe they have a political model that is going to withstand the test of time.鈥�

If anything, the year since Cuba and the United States normalized relations has witnessed a political crackdown, with stepped-up arrests of dissidents and snuffing out of fledgling expressions of political diversity 鈥� signaling a dual approach to opening up the economic and political systems.

鈥淔idel鈥檚 death will mean that a generation of economic reformists and moderates will now be able to emerge and push for the changes that the very tough economic realities may require,鈥� says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. 鈥淏ut the political side will be harder and will take much more time.鈥�

If anything, a renewed push for economic reforms is likely to mean even less openness to political change, Mr. Shifter says. 鈥淭he economic uncertainties mean that something has to change [on the economic side], but that raises the likelihood that the political transformation won鈥檛 happen for a while.鈥澛� 聽

The elements of this 鈥渆conomic reform, 蝉铆, political change, no!鈥� model have been on full display in recent years as Castro withdrew almost fully from Cuba鈥檚 public stage.

President Ra煤l Castro is in firm control, as he has been since his elder brother turned over the reins to him in 2006. Ra煤l Castro orchestrated the opening to the US that Fidel didn鈥檛 like, but he made sure that intolerance of internal political change accompanied the overtures to the US.

Forces for the status quo

Moreover, Cuba remains in the tight grips of a socialist bureaucracy that the elder Castro built up over five decades and which remains heavy on inertia and light on openness to change.

A key element of that state structure is a military with controlling interests in the state-run economy. Economists estimate that one military-controlled holding company, Gaesa, alone accounts for about 40 percent of the Cuban economy.

Another factor making political change unlikely is the flow of migration to the United States, which has accelerated in recent years to levels not seen in several decades.

鈥淭hey still have the safety-valve of migration to the US that relieves the tensions that might otherwise be there,鈥� says Dr. Gamarra. This year more than 44,000 Cubans will have migrated to the US by simply arriving at American shores or borders and under US law being immediately welcomed in. That鈥檚 in addition to the 20,000 Cuban immigrants the US accepts annually under accords signed with the Cuban government.

The Trump factor

The uncertainty of US policy toward Cuba under a President Trump is also bound to encourage caution on the part of an already change-averse regime.

During the presidential campaign, Mr. Trump lambasted President Obama鈥檚 opening to Cuba as a 鈥渂ad deal鈥� that gave the Cuban regime too much in exchange for too little in terms of human rights and religious freedoms. Trump pledged to reverse Obama鈥檚 actions, and since the election surrogates have echoed his words.

Trump鈥檚 chief-of-staff-in-waiting, Reince Priebus, said Sunday that the 鈥渂ad deal鈥� accepted by Obama wouldn鈥檛 stand under Trump and that the 鈥渙ne-way street鈥� of the US offering all the concessions while Cuba changed nothing was over.

But some analysts say the genie is already out of the bottle 鈥� the first commercial flights in 50 years between the US and Cuba start up this week, for example 鈥� and that Trump is unlikely to undo much of what Obama did, particularly in terms of bilateral commerce.

鈥淭rump is not an ideologue, he鈥檚 a business person, and I think he knows he鈥檇 face a lot of pressure from the business community if he tried to reverse some of the changes under Obama,鈥� says Shifter. 鈥淚t鈥檚 fair to assume he鈥檚 not going to try to lift the embargo, but as far as reversing some of the measures that the business community and agriculture have liked, I doubt he鈥檇 do that.鈥�

Such steps would likely be counterproductive, Shifter adds, unleashing more repression and hunkering down by the Cuban regime. 鈥淲e tried to pressure Cuba and to isolate Cuba,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t didn鈥檛 work then and it鈥檚 even less likely to work now.鈥�

Cuba鈥檚 task now will be 鈥渢o figure out where they fit in a globalized world,鈥� says Gamarra, adding that the options for formulating the island鈥檚 future are probably a bit broader now with Fidel gone.

After Ra煤l, another Castro?

But everyone agrees that while significant change 鈥� economic or political 鈥� is not imminent, the real key to Cuba鈥檚 future lies in the power transition that will take place after the 85-year-old Ra煤l Castro steps down. Mr. Castro has said he will relinquish the presidency in 2018 鈥� an eventuality that set off a flurry of speculation well before Fidel鈥檚 passing over whether the successor will be an economics-oriented technocrat or another Castro 鈥� perhaps Ra煤l鈥檚 son, or his powerful son-in-law, Gen. Lu铆s Alberto Rodriguez L贸pez-Callejas, president of the Gaesa holding company.

鈥淔idel鈥檚 death opens a path for the moderate and reform-minded factions to gain ground, but we also know that many in the Cuban-American community think the system will replace Ra煤l with another Castro 鈥� and continuity,鈥� says Shifter. 鈥淎bout the only thing we can say for sure is that there will be a power struggle within the government over the next president and the country鈥檚 direction.鈥�

What that may mean is that Cuba鈥檚 biggest transition will come as the country shifts in the months ahead from 鈥淲hat happens to Cuba after Fidel?鈥� to 鈥淲hat happens after Ra煤l?鈥�