海角大神

A meme circulating on social media features a portrait of Ecuador鈥檚 controversial president, Rafael Correa, winking at the camera. The image is split down the middle, with one half reading "before"听and the other "after."听

In the before section, he鈥檚 quoted in November 2007, soon after he was first elected, saying,听鈥渋ndefinite reelections are absurd, because democracy requires a rotation in leadership.鈥�

But on the听"after" side is a quote from a speech he gave in June 2014: 鈥淩otation of leadership is a bourgeois discourse that no one believes anymore. It鈥檚 a myth.鈥�

A recent vote from Ecuador鈥檚 Constitutional Court partially cleared Correa鈥檚 path for indefinite reelection, and it appears he鈥檚 poised to stay in power beyond 2016.听The National Assembly has until October 2015 to decide whether the issue should go up for a vote, or whether it can be resolved through a constitutional听amendment 鈥� a contentious subject that it is expected to debate this week. Correa鈥檚 seven years of social spending have won him an听approval rating that hovers between an unprecedented 70 and听80 percent, making him Latin America鈥檚听most popular leader. But some worry the charismatic president is taking constitutional changes too far, threatening Ecuador鈥檚 robust democracy.

鈥淰oters should have the option of electing their government leaders indefinitely,鈥� said Correa in May, arguing that indefinite reelections do not translate to听power-grabbing.听鈥淭he Ecuadorean people should have the freedom to decide whether they want continuity or a rotation in leadership.鈥�

Lasting legacy

Correa first took office in 2007, the same year his late friend Hugo Ch谩vez of Venezuela pushed for a referendum to amend Venezuela鈥檚 Constitution to lift election limits. Reform was needed, then-President Ch谩vez argued, to implement his听socialist听revolution.

Correa is framing indefinite reelection in a similar way, calling it an opportunity to continue his social programs. Since taking office, he鈥檚 aggressively tried to build a lasting legacy听鈥� using Ecuador鈥檚 oil profits to fund new infrastructure (he's built more than 5,000 miles of new roads), to invest in scientific and technological research through Latin America鈥檚 largest technological park, as well as to subsidize a massive overhaul of educational institutions and teacher training.

At least 113,000 new jobs have been added to the public sector since 2007, and a running joke here hints at the need for a new ministry that can bring the nation鈥檚 bulging bureaucracy under control.听Ecuador has 28 ministries, compared with an average of 19 government ministries in South American countries.

According to government figures,听poverty rates in Ecuador have gone down considerably under Correa's leadership: From 37 percent of the population living听on less than a dollar a day in 2007 to 24 percent today.

But for Correa鈥檚 critics, his legacy doesn鈥檛 just translate to expanded state investment and control over the economy. Maria Paula Romo, a law professor at the International University of Ecuador and a former member of Correa鈥檚 leftist coalition in the National Assembly, accuses Correa of becoming increasingly authoritarian.

鈥淪ince his first constitutional reforms in 2011, he keeps influencing the courts, law enforcement, and the media,鈥澨齅s.听Romo says. She says that he has reorganized the police to听centralize听them and purge any likely dissenters, created a law that听regulates media content while expanding the state media apparatus, and听reshuffled the courts throughout the country, appointing new judges to his liking.听

An uphill battle?

Ecuadorean economist and听political analyst听Gabriela Calder贸n says the national economy has blossomed under Correa听鈥� but that his social programs would not have been possible without a boom in oil prices that peaked in 2006. 听

With falling oil prices, Ms. Calder贸n says public investment may have to drop, too.听鈥淣ext year鈥檚 government deficit is expected to be as big as its spending,鈥澨鼵alder贸n says.

Despite the president's overall popularity, a recent national poll found that 73 percent of Ecuadoreans believe Correa鈥檚 reelection should be settled by a popular vote instead of a constitutional amendment.

Guillermo Lasso, a businessman and politician听with the political听party听Movimiento CREO, is expected to run against Correa for the second time in 2017, and he believes the reelection issue is controversial enough to make it to the polls.听

Mr. Lasso and his allies have to gather nearly 600,000 signatures to challenge the recent ruling that partially paves the way for indefinite reelection. They have an uphill battle ahead of them: 100 out of 120 members of Ecuador鈥檚 national assembly are aligned with Correa鈥檚 party.听That means that even if they rally the signatures, the assembly could push the听amendment through nonetheless.听