海角大神

With less than two months to go before Brazil鈥檚聽Oct. 5聽presidential election,聽the death of candidate Eduardo Campos聽in a plane crash today is expected to jolt many young, urban voters into action and shift momentum in favor of the political opposition.

Top officials in Mr. Campos' socialist party say his running mate, Marina Silva, will now likely move to the top of the ticket. Ms. Silva, a former environment minister who placed third in the 2010 presidential election with 20 million votes, is seen as more able to rally undecided voters and directly challenge President Dilma Rousseff of the Workers' Party. Campos was seen as a more business-friendly alternative to Ms. Rousseff, whereas Silva is known as a staunch defender of the Amazon and broke away from the Workers' Party in protest of harmful development projects.聽

"This will add emotional weight to this campaign,鈥� says Thiago de Arag茫o of Bras铆lia-based political advisory firm Arko Advice, which is in close contact with all of Brazil's mainstream political parties. 鈥淏razilians are superstitious," says Mr. Arag茫o. "Voters could feel that his death had a symbolism [occurring on the 13th of the month] ... and perhaps be moved to vote differently."

Brazilian election law says that if a presidential candidate is incapable of running for office due to extraordinary circumstances, anyone affiliated with the party or another coalition party can assume the nomination, according to Arag茫o.

Sources inside Campos鈥� Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) told Arag茫o that party leaders will meet in coming days to formally nominate Silva. A decision must be finalized in 10 days, according to Adelaide Ribeiro, a communications official in the state government of Pernambuco, where Campos served as governor from 2007 until April of this year.

Recent polls showed Campos with about 10 percent support, behind 36 support for聽Rousseff and the 20 percent support for A茅cio Neves of the centrist Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB). In聽a second-round runoff, which will happen if no candidate wins more than half of all votes cast in October, polls show Rousseff and Neves in a dead-heat.

Now, Silva鈥檚 appeal with younger, urban voters is expected to siphon votes away from Rousseff and help ensure the election will go to a second round, according to Nomura Securities analyst Tony Volpon.聽In 2010 most of Silva鈥檚 supporters shifted their support the the opposition PSDB candidate in the second round.

鈥淣ow it鈥檚 likely that Neves could see even more votes coming from supporters of Silva after the first round,鈥� says Arag茫o. 鈥淭he campaign will now be harder for Dilma, increase chances for Neves, and add a heavy emotional characteristic in the voting process.鈥�

Rousseff has seen a recent bump in popularity thanks to her government鈥檚 successful hosting of the World Cup, although her polling numbers are still well below where they stood a year ago before nationwide demonstrations calling for better public services and less corruption. High inflation and low economic growth have also played a role in her declining approval rates and flagging support from the business sector.聽

The closest precedent to the political maneuvering that is expected to take place following today's events was in 1985 when president-elect Tancredo Neves fell ill before inauguration and his vice president Jos茅 Sarney assumed the presidency.