海角大神

On a gusty afternoon, dozens of moored fishing boats rock in the surf as their captains play dominoes in the shade of palms.

The fishermen have been largely out of work since November, when the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague redrew the maritime border around this Colombian island in the Caribbean, extending聽Nicaragua鈥檚 exclusive economic zone north and south of San Andr茅s by about 30,000 square miles.

This means that fishing waters have been slashed for Colombian fisherman, says Denny Fox Biscaino, treasurer of the Artisanal Fisherman's Collective of San Andr茅s. But security experts in both countries agree that the ruling could have an unintended consequence: increasing drug trafficking in these blue-green seas.

鈥淣icaragua doesn鈥檛 have the resources, and we are going to see a surge in drug trafficking,鈥� says John Marulanda, a Colombia-based defense consultant.

Nicaragua has one of the smallest and most antiquated naval fleets in Latin America, and it may have been granted more ocean than it can manage or police.

鈥淭here is a possibility that [fishermen will] mix with the narcos, or in the movement of guns,鈥� now that some of the best fishing is beyond the reach of islanders, Mr. Biscaino says.聽鈥淭hey possibly could if they don鈥檛 see any other way.鈥�

'Limited' and 'outdated' fleet

The dispute leading to the ICJ鈥檚 decision dates back to 1928, when Nicaragua signed聽a treaty agreeing to Colombia鈥檚 claims over an archipelago that includes San Andr茅s. Nicaragua argued that the treaty was invalid because it had been signed during a period of United States military intervention. The court responded with a compromise, confirming聽Colombia鈥檚 claim to the archipelago but nearly doubling Nicaragua鈥檚 sea zone to extend well beyond the 82nd meridian, the historical limit of Colombian waters.

The ICJ鈥檚 ruling could be a boon for drug smugglers because Colombia鈥檚 large naval fleet will be replaced by Nicaragua鈥檚, which the security publication Jane鈥檚 has called 鈥渓imited鈥� and 鈥渙utdated,鈥� with many assets that are not functioning.

The Nicaraguan Navy has three speedy patrol boats聽that can guard the shores but cannot patrol the deep sea, says Roberto Cajina, a security consultant in Nicaragua. Colombia, by contrast, can claim a fleet of frigates, submarines, and approximately 100 patrol boats.

To combat the traffickers, Nicaragua鈥檚 government will have to seek military assistance from other nations. But Mr. Cajina says that Nicaragua has few options.

鈥淣icaragua鈥檚 friends in ideology 鈥� Venezuela, Iran, and Russia 鈥� have not responded鈥� to its requests for support, he says.

Nicaragua has invited Colombia to participate in joint patrols, but these haven鈥檛 happened, and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos continues to oppose the ICJ鈥檚 ruling.聽Last week, Santos ordered the Colombian Navy to boost its presence on the maritime border to protect the San Andr茅s fishermen, while Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega countered with an offer to create a special zone for them 鈥� but his plan was short on details.

Cajina says that Nicaragua鈥檚 best 鈥� and likely only 鈥� option is to ask for more assistance from the United States, which has given the Central American nation about $30 million in military and police aid since 2008,聽according to the website Just The Facts, which tracks spending in Latin America.

But the relationship has become strained recently as Nicaragua has accepted large sums of money from Venezuela. Yet, even without outside support, Nicaragua鈥檚 military does not bear total responsibility for stopping drug trafficking in the Caribbean, Cajina says. 鈥淔rom where do the boats leave? They leave from Venezuela and Colombia.鈥�

'What can I do?'

Down the road from the headquarters of the Colombian Navy's special command on San Andr茅s, a young fisherman who calls himself Leon茅l displays three red snappers, two yellowtails, and a heavy-lipped black grouper for sale.

It鈥檚 a poor catch for four days鈥� fishing, Leon茅l says. Filleting a red snapper, he complains of being unable to go near the 82nd meridian, where fish are more abundant, and he is worried about supporting his younger brothers, sisters, and 3-year-old daughter. 鈥淚f I can鈥檛 fish, what can I do? I never studied, I just started fishing,鈥� he says.

Many of his fellow fishermen face the same problem.

鈥淭he narcos pay the fishermen to bring gasoline, food, whatever they want,鈥� says one, who asks not to be identified discussing drug trafficking, for safety reasons. 鈥淎nd right now there is no money in fishing.鈥�

A favored route

In the 1980s, the Caribbean was a favored route for Colombian cartels, which used desolate islands to fill boats and airplanes with cocaine destined for Florida.

Today, sea smuggling routes include stops along the coastline of Central America 鈥� a bridge on the trail between South America鈥檚 cocaine producers, Mexico鈥檚 traffickers, and the large US market of consumers.聽Of the 850 metric tons of cocaine headed to the United States, about 90 percent now passes through Central America, according to the Defense Department, and a third of that through the Caribbean, according to the State Department.

San Andr茅s and its surrounding islands, 400 miles from the Colombian mainland and only 140 miles from Nicaragua, have long served as a collection point for drugs, which are then distributed among go-fast boats that shuttle them to Central America, or in some cases all the way to Mexico and the United States, says naval Capt. Lu铆s Hern谩n Espejo Segura, commander of the Colombian Navy鈥檚 special command in San Andr茅s.

Seizures of cocaine in the waters around San Andr茅s more than doubled from 7.3 metric tons in 2011 to 20.8 tons last year, says Mr. Espejo, who calls the archipelago 鈥渁n extremely critical zone.鈥澛�

'A reality'

Espejo says the smugglers鈥� go-fast boats have up to four outboard motors and are piloted by young islanders who 鈥渒now the behavior of the sea during different seasons and don鈥檛 fear covering thousands of miles in difficult conditions.鈥� The island鈥檚 fishermen have also at times moved drugs in their vessels, but more often act as surveillance or relay gasoline to the go-fast boats, he says.

Two former San Andr茅s fishermen, known locally as the Cassandra twins, started out shuttling gasoline but eventually came to own a聽fleet of drug smuggling boats. San Andr茅s was hit with a wave of crime and murders after the brothers partnered with a well-known Colombian crime syndicate,聽Los Rastrojos, in 2010, fighting a rival gang for control of the island鈥檚 trafficking routes, according to local media reports.

The brothers fled the island a year ago, and Espejo says trafficking-related violence has dramatically decreased in San Andr茅s since their departure.聽In January, the brothers were captured in Honduras and Panama, but the influence of crime syndicates in the archipelago, northern Colombia, and Central America 鈥渋s a reality,鈥� says Marulanda, the Colombian security analyst.

Both Colombia and Nicaragua need to recognize the threat they face from trafficking syndicates and gangs, Marulanda says.

鈥淭his should be the main focus of the security forces of the Latin American states.鈥�