海角大神

When the coffin's procession through the streets of Caracas ended, Hugo Ch谩vez returned to a familiar place: the military academy where his career began.聽

Draped with the red, yellow, and blue of the Venezuelan flag, colors that Mr. Ch谩vez often donned in life, the academy provided more than a subtle reminder of the role the armed forces have played in Venezuelan politics.

Ch谩vez, who rose through the ranks of the military, was able to control the armed forces largely by stacking it with party loyalists. But his successor, whether it is front-runner Vice President Nicol谩s Maduro or opposition leader Henrique Capriles 鈥� neither of whom has military experience 鈥� may find it difficult to control the factions within the institution, observers say.

鈥淭he main problem for whoever is elected will be leading the armed forces. Maduro does not have the standing with the Army leadership that Ch谩vez had,鈥� says Francisco Us贸n, a retired Army general who was imprisoned in 2004 for making critical remarks on national television. 鈥淚 think it will be very difficult for the next president to maintain control.鈥�

No one is expecting a coup. In fact, after Ch谩vez's death, the defense minister called for "unity, tranquility, and understanding."聽But keeping the institution unified in the absence of a strong leader who was viewed as an insider will no doubt be a challenge for the next president.

'Revolutionary' military

The military became highly politicized in recent years, despite a constitutional mandate that it remain neutral. Ch谩vez nominated 11 ex-military officers for governorships last year and gave the military important political powers. He believed the armed forces were meant to follow in the footsteps of his hero Simon Bolivar's liberation armies.

Defense leaders pledged their continued support of Chavismo on the heels of Ch谩vez's death, something some interpret as a thinly veiled warning of intervention if the Chavista candidate doesn't win. And yesterday, Minister of Defense Diego Molero Bellavia called the armed forces 鈥渞evolutionary, anti-imperialist, socialist, and Chavista,鈥� according to the information ministry.

'贰迟别谤苍补濒濒测'听

But it wasn鈥檛 just the military that pledged allegiance to聽El Comandante, or The Commander. In Ch谩vez鈥檚 death, the world is reminded of the deep loyalty many Venezuelans felt for their outspoken and extroverted leader.

On Thursday, thousands waited in line for hours to pay homage before today's funeral.

鈥淚鈥檓 exhausted,鈥� says Valmore Alcala, an accountant who drove six hours to Caracas and had been waiting in line for 12 hours. Mr. Alcala expected to wait three more hours to enter the military academy building.

鈥淔or a chance to see him a last time, it鈥檚 worth it,鈥� Alcala says. 鈥淗e formed us. He taught us how to love our fatherland.鈥�

Mr. Maduro set a state funeral for today at 11 a.m., and announced to supporters that Ch谩vez will lie in state for seven more days to give Venezuelans a chance to visit. He will then be聽embalmed and placed under glass so he could be seen "eternally."聽

鈥淚 have one objective,鈥� says Josefa Gretesol, a middle-aged journalist who waited 12 hours in line Thursday, 鈥渁nd that鈥檚 to see my president.鈥�

'Jockeying for power'

"Ch谩vez was the glue that united a whole people, from radical Marxists and socialists, to centrists and social democrats, and different factions in the military,鈥� says Mark Jones, political science professor at Rice University in Houston.

Under the next president, the military 鈥渨ill be one of many actors jockeying for power and influence,鈥� Mr. Jones says.聽聽"The military is the one institution that has the ability to project force in the country, so there's always a potential for its involvement."

Like many leaders in a region known for military coups, Ch谩vez both took advantage of and was victimized by the political tendencies of the armed forces.

He rose through the ranks of the institution to become a paratrooper lieutenant colonel by 1992, the year he led a coup attempt against then-President Carlos Andr茅s P茅rez. A decade later, Ch谩vez himself was the target of a failed coup attempt.

Following the 2002 coup that very briefly unseated him, Ch谩vez 鈥渞ecast the politics of the military,鈥� says Miguel Tinker Salas, author of聽鈥淭he Enduring Legacy: Oil, Culture and Society in Venezuela.鈥�

鈥淎fter the [2002] coup attempt, he summarily dismissed many who participated,鈥� Mr. Tinker Salas says. 鈥淭his is not your father鈥檚 South American military,鈥� he says, referring to the conservative Latin American militaries that often toppled progressive leaders.

Although both attempts failed, they were examples of how the 125,000-member military 鈥� mainly its 8,500 officers 鈥� can throw Venezuelan politics into crisis.

'More united than ever'

Ch谩vez鈥檚 heavy-handed involvement may have kept the military in line, but it also created divisions within the institution.

For example, he brought in hundreds of Cuban military advisers, including some influential officers who work at the most important military complex, a move that not all officers were comfortable with.聽

If Maduro is elected, as recent polling data project, the staunch leftist and ally of the Castro brothers could be faced with the potential tension of balancing his domestic policy interests with Cuban interests, says Mr. Us贸n,聽such as a continuing flow of Venezuelan petrodollars.

鈥淎nd then within the military, there is a strong rejection of the Cuban presence,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat will be difficult for him to manage if he is elected president.鈥�

Observers agree that the one man who would be perhaps best suited to control the military is not running for office.

Diosdado Cabello, a former military leader and current president of the National Assembly, has the experience and the personality to win the military鈥檚 respect.聽聽

鈥淒iosdado would have more influence,鈥� says Us贸n. Ch谩vez tapped Maduro as his successor, however, sidelining any expectations that Mr. Cabello might run.

For now, the armed forces are 鈥渕ore united than ever,鈥� says Maj. Gen. Wilmer Barrientos, chief of the Operational Strategic Command.聽

And last night, as military men dressed in their Navy blues and simple Army greens saluted proudly in the military academy before the coffin, it was clear that it is Ch谩vez who remains their commander-in-chief.

鈥� Whitney Eulich contributed reporting from Boston.