海角大神

Hugo Ch谩vez won a fourth term as president of Venezuela in October, and tomorrow, Jan. 10, was his scheduled inauguration. But the leader, who has been in office since 1999, is unable to appear before the nation to assume office. He has been in Cuba since his December cancer surgery there, and is facing a recovery deemed 鈥渃omplicated鈥� by his government. Venezuela has been thrown into uncertainty as government allies and opposition figures face off over who should become president on Thursday, what the Constitution dictates, and what is against the law.

Is it unconstitutional for the inauguration to be delayed?

Allies of President Ch谩vez say the inauguration can legally be delayed, arguing that the swearing-in is only a 鈥渇ormality.鈥� They argue that Ch谩vez maintains his post as president and will be sworn in later, in front of the nation's supreme court, when he is physically ready. The opposition earlier sent a letter to the Organization of American States (OAS) saying that his absence聽would be聽"a serious constitutional violation鈥� and that the supreme court should weigh in. The Roman Catholic Church also accused the government of bringing instability to the country. Critics say that, under the provisions of the Constitution, the president of the national assembly should take office temporarily if Ch谩vez聽does not appear Thursday. Simply maintaining 鈥渃ontinuity鈥� of the current administration is illegal, they say.聽

鈥淭here is one strict date that cannot be modified,鈥� says Luis Salamanca, a professor of constitutional law at the Central University of Venezuela in Caracas. 鈥淎 new period is ending, and another one is beginning.鈥� Mr. Salamanca says the swearing-in is more than just a formality.

It is the moment of the inauguration that 鈥淐havez would be granted the legal authority to be president,鈥� he says.

What exactly does the Constitution say?

There are three relevant articles of the Constitution that apply to this case. Article 231, translated by the BBC聽in English here, reads:

Article 233 defines the 鈥渁bsolute absence鈥� of the president as:

It goes on to say:

Finally, Article 234 says: 鈥淲hen the president is temporarily unable to serve, [he/she] shall be replaced by the executive vice-president for a period of up to 90 days, which may be extended by resolution of the National Assembly for an additional 90 days.鈥�

So why all of the divided views?

While the Constitution describes what should happen if the inauguration is missed, and what to do if a president is 鈥減ermanently absent,鈥� it does not define what to do in the case of a temporary absence in a moment of transition. As a microcosm of the polarization that has marked the Andean nation under Ch谩vez's leadership, the views of what should happen vary widely.聽Allies of Ch谩vez argue that the opposition is using his delicate health to take the presidency away from him, undermining the clear wishes of a citizenry who reelected Ch谩vez in Oct. 7 elections.

The opposition says that the Ch谩vez government is violating the Constitution for political purposes. Instead of naming the national assembly leader as temporary president, they have called for a rally on Thursday to underline the聽support for Ch谩vez. Part of the motive may be timing, Salamanca says, to give Vice President Nicolas Maduro, Ch谩vez's聽preferred successor and the person who is in charge while Ch谩vez is absent, a chance聽to become a more well-known political figure if new elections are eventually called.

It may also simply be a reflection of the inability to foresee a Venezuela without Ch谩vez at the helm. As Venezuela expert聽David Smilde points out in his blog,聽Venezuelan Politics and Human Rights, hosted by the Washington Office on Latin America, 鈥渢aking the聽plunge to start聽making moves for a chavismo without Ch谩vez is no small step."

Ironically, says Ricardo Sucre, a political analyst in Caracas, this goes against what Ch谩vez said in his last public appearance: That should Ch谩vez not be able to run the country, Mr. Maduro was his preferred candidate in new elections. 鈥淐h谩vez himself stuck to the letter of the Constitution,鈥� Mr. Sucre says.

Will condemning the Ch谩vez administration as unconstitutional backfire for the opposition?

The Ch谩vez administration is facing criticism for postponing the inauguration. Christopher Sabatini,聽editor in chief at Americas Quarterly, points out:聽鈥淩epeatedly this government has bent the Constitution in a way that may not violate the letter of the Constitution but does violate its spirit. This is no exception.鈥�

But聽the situation聽could also backfire for the opposition,聽especially its appeal to the OAS. As Mr. Smilde writes: 鈥淚n appealing to the OAS the opposition may run counter to public sentiment.鈥�

What happens after Jan. 10?

Lawmakers are also calling for immediate transparency in the health of Ch谩vez, to assess whether hs is "temporarily" absent from Venezuela or whether he is going to be "permanently" absent. He was diagnosed with cancer in the pelvic area in 2011 but the type, stage, and his prognosis have yet to be revealed. After declaring himself cured, Ch谩vez suffered a recurrence and went to Havana in December for a fourth surgery.聽

No one has heard from him since.

His government and family have sent conflicting reports: some saying that he is stable and recovering, others that his situation is precarious. 鈥淭he first thing that should happen is [that] the nation should have a discussion about why exactly Ch谩vez is absent, and whether this absence is temporary or permanent,鈥� says Sucre.

Freedom House echoed that sentiment.

鈥淭he people of Venezuela deserve a transparent explanation of the President鈥檚 state of health to determine if, and when, new elections are necessary. Prolonged uncertainty about who will be聽the next Venezuelan president is unacceptable,鈥� said David Kramer, president of Freedom House, in a statement.