海角大神

After 12 years orchestrating his Bolivarian Revolution, Venezuelan President Hugo Ch谩vez is preparing to run for a fourth, six-year term in power. But a traditionally disjointed opposition has finally begun to work together to battle for his defeat in this year鈥檚 Presidential election.

To say Mr. Ch谩vez鈥檚 tenure has been eventful would be an understatement. He survived a coup attempt which deposed him for 48 hours, an oil strike that virtually stopped all production for more than two months, and 鈥� he fancifully claimed 鈥� Washington鈥檚 attempts to kill him last year by poisoning him with cancer. He also won a victory in overturning term limits, which means he is able to maintain power until defeated at the polls.聽

Ch谩vez is a formidable foe for the country鈥檚 political opposition. His approach to the Venezuelan economy is steeped in oil. He uses profits from the $110 per barrel resource to fund popular social programs, winning deserved favor with the poor. He also owes much of his success to his indelible public relations skills, which resonate with his core support among the poor, and in the early years of his presidency, appealed to the nation鈥檚 middle class.聽

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Living with 30 percent inflation, regular power outages, and one of the highest murder rates in the world, however, the middle class has since tired of Ch谩vez.聽A tough fight lies ahead. The candidate who will take on Ch谩vez in Venezeula鈥檚 October Presidential election will be chosen in primaries held on Feb. 12.

Young state governor Henrique Capriles Radonski is likely to take that mantle. He's less known outside the country than his former rival,聽Leopoldo L贸pez, who has spoken out against Ch谩vez on the world stage. Mr. L贸pez聽was set to be the opposition鈥檚 frontrunner until the government disqualified him from holding office under a law that many critics say was simply created to stifle those with a chance at challenging the president. Despite that, L贸pez was still high in the polls until a couple of weeks ago (Jan. 24) when he stepped out of the race, redirecting his considerable momentum to Mr. Capriles鈥� campaign. With the聽support of L贸pez, Capriles is expected to win the February primary.

Unlike L贸pez and other opposition candidates who are seen as wealthy outsiders by the country鈥檚 poor, Capriles has been courting the barrios of Venezuela rather than the boardrooms of the United States, appealing to Ch谩vez鈥檚 core support.

鈥淗e鈥檚 the only one who can penetrate the poor,鈥� says Carlos Romero, a political analyst at the Central University of Venezuela.

At a rally attended by hundreds of lively supporters in a barrio in the coastal state of Vargas, 19-year-old Luiselys Flores says she wants 鈥渁 change鈥� for her country. 鈥淐h谩vez is a president that believes too much in socialism,鈥� she says, dressed in a blue Capriles t-shirt and waving the candidate鈥檚 colorful flag. 鈥淐h谩vez doesn鈥檛 understand the reality of what鈥檚 happening in Venezuela.鈥�

Capriles believes a new politics is possible, whereby the poor aren鈥檛 sidelined yet the economy can grow with foreign investment. 鈥淚'm in a process of constructing a political change,鈥� Capriles told the Monitor from his campaign headquarters in Caracas. 鈥淚 don't represent the old establishment.鈥�

The economic crises of the '80s coupled with open corruption of oil wealth led to two coup attempts in the early '90s 鈥� one by Ch谩vez himself 鈥� brought on by huge disaffection with the government. This was the original source for Ch谩vez鈥檚 popularity.

Pablo P茅rez, another young candidate, is suffering from his association with that era. The contender has received backing from the Democratic Action party, in power at the time, which many claim is no longer relevant. 鈥淧茅rez represents a coalition of the past,鈥� says Mr. Romero.

Despite coming from a rich family that owns a chain of cinemas, Capriles has taken notes from Ch谩vez, both in terms of style and substance. He rides his motorbike into barrios, plays basketball with locals, and dresses without pomp. 鈥淚f you don't understand the social reality of this country, you're dead,鈥� Capriles says.

The former mayor and current governor of Venezuela鈥檚 second most populous state, Miranda, emulates more moderate Latin American leaders such as the hugely successful former Brazilian President Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva. 鈥淚 100 percent follow the model of Lula,鈥� Capriles says.

His style represents a broader shift in Latin America today, away from the extreme left like Cuba鈥檚 Fidel Castro and Ch谩vez, toward more US-friendly leadership that still focuses on pushing social policies to close the region鈥檚 extreme poverty gap.

Capriles鈥� calculated, steady campaign, which started two years ago, isn鈥檛 so much reaching a crescendo as it's pacing confidently along, largely ignoring Ch谩vez.

Capriles rarely mentions Ch谩vez by name, acutely aware that despite the president鈥檚 lack of popularity in the middle classes, many in the barrios were once 鈥� if not still 鈥� behind El Comandante, as he's known.

Back at the Capriles rally, 55-year-old Victor Arteaga drinks from a bottle of beer on the sidelines.聽 鈥淚鈥檓 100 percent Chavista,鈥� he says proudly. 鈥淐h谩vez is our president and our leader. Old people, young people, all of us have benefitted鈥�. Capriles has no chance.鈥�

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