海角大神

鈥�A version of this post first appeared on the blog Africa in Transition. The views expressed are the author's own.聽

Very little coherent information is currently coming out of the parts of northern Nigeria under a聽state of emergency. What information is available indicates that activity and violence continue under the cover of the media silence, though it is difficult to judge its degree.

In May,聽cell phones and satellite phones did not operate聽in the affected areas. Those services are only聽slowly being restored.聽Foreign media聽are almost entirely absent, and domestic media appear to be highly restricted. Foreign diplomats do not travel there.聽Information seems to move from the Nigerian military and police Joint Task Force (JTF) to the civilian government in Abuja, and from there to the international media.

But there are numerous signs of incoherent churning. Abubakar Shekau, the leader of the group Boko Haram, earlier was reported to have been聽shot聽and聽deposed聽by his followers because he opposes the government鈥檚 offer of amnesty for his organization.聽However, he has now聽released a video聽reasserting his leadership and he claims responsibility for numerous recent attacks in聽Borno聽state,聽including those in the towns of聽Mallam Fatori,聽Konduga, and聽Bama, that altogether have killed about 100 people.

In this聽latest video, Mr. Shekau claims the military is lying in their claims of success against his movement. He has also ramped up the anti-American rhetoric, alluding to Boko Haram鈥檚 readiness to move from the "near" enemy to the "far" enemy.

There are聽plausible suggestions聽in the media that the latest Boko Haram killings are reprisals against those cooperating with the security forces and the so-called 鈥淐ivilian JTF" 鈥撀燼 vigilante justice group operating against Boko Haram in the country's north 鈥撀爋r that they target mosques and imams who have聽previously been critical of Boko Haram.聽The "Civilian JTF" is mostly unarmed civilian groups that denounce suspected Boko Haram operatives to the security services.聽

While the Civilian JTF groups have the support of the government, they appear to operate as independent vigilantes.聽Some observers suggest that the Civilian JTF includes young men imprisoned by the security services who are offered release in return for signing up. Others suggest that they are the nucleus of private militias that Nigerian politicians often form before elections, which are due in late 2014.

Others are said to be trying to rid their communities of Boko Haram, thereby deflecting attention from the security services. Still others claim that they lost their jobs and or family and friends because of Boko Haram and fight them to restore normalcy. Of course,聽the Civilian JTF could include all these motivations, and others besides.

The Nigeria media recently carried an all but incoherent聽interview with an ex-militant聽who claimed that there were many groups similar to but separate from Shekau鈥檚 Boko Haram, including his own. His particular group鈥檚 focus was killing 海角大神s, while Shekau鈥檚 victims have usually had links to the government or to critical mosques. But this militant also claims links with Iran. He also describes practices 鈥� drinking the blood of his victims to prevent being haunted by their ghosts and consumption of 鈥渟piritual water鈥� that engenders visions 鈥� that are far from Salafi Islam and are anathema to Shekau鈥檚 Boko Haram.

It is important to keep a perspective.聽The 鈥渟haria鈥� states in the north may have seventy million people, while taken altogether 鈥淏oko Haram鈥� and similar or associated groups and cults may number only in the hundreds, though those who support or acquiesce to what they do is doubtlessly larger. Nevertheless, it is also worth remembering that the聽Irish Republican Army聽and its splinters had probably no more than four hundred active service members at the height of its 1970s and 1980s insurgency against British rule in Northern Ireland. Yet they were able to tie down substantial British military resources, and relative peace was restored only through a political process.