海角大神

鈥� A version of this post ran on the author's blog, www.sahelblog.wordpress.com. The views expressed are the author's own.

Last spring, Burkina Faso experienced weeks of protests by trade unions and students, with an overlapping series of mutinies by soldiers and police. For a time it looked as though President Blaise Compaore, who has ruled the country since 1987, might be losing his grip on power. In June, a combination of personnel changes, policy reforms, and crackdowns on mutineers brought the nation鈥檚 intersecting uprisings to a close. But nearly a year later, Burkina Faso and its rulers are still sorting through the fallout of last year鈥檚 explosion 鈥� and looking ahead to 2015, the year of the next scheduled presidential elections.

The 2011 uprisings were back in the news last week when the government announced the firing of over 100 policemen聽accused of joining the mutinies. A list of the fired officers (in French) shows that most came from units in Ouagadougou, the political capital, and Bobo-Dioulasso, the economic capital. Both cities were centers of protest last year. Given earlier disciplinary firings of mutinous soldiers, the firing of mutinous police came as no surprise (French).

The firings suggest that last year鈥檚 uprisings are still on the government鈥檚 mind, but also that the government is feeling relatively strong. International actors seem to share that view of the Compaore regime鈥檚 strength. The US State Department鈥榮 conclusion regarding the 2011 uprisings is, 鈥淎s of late July, the government鈥檚 actions had produced greater calm and stability.鈥澛燭he IMF鈥檚 December review of loan programs to Burkina Faso makes no mention of the uprisings, but generally depicts the country as stable and making progress on the IMF鈥檚 desired reforms. The IMF does say, however, 鈥淚n view of the Burkinab猫 economy鈥檚 vulnerability to exogenous shocks that affect the most vulnerable in the population, the authorities need to place special emphasis on the preparation of a social safety net.鈥� This is noteworthy because two frequently cited drivers of the uprisings were the post-electoral crisis in neighboring Cote d鈥橧voire and increases in the price of basic foods.

The Africa Report adds more聽perspective on the regime鈥檚 new strategy and how it has been received internationally:

Many observers, then, agree that calm has been restored for the present. But those same observers are questioning whether stability can hold. The Africa Report wonders whether population growth will overwhelm economic growth. Morale among soldiers and police may have taken a hit from firings. And the shocks 鈥� particularly rapid increases in food prices 鈥� that contributed to crisis not only last year, but also in previous episodes, could return.

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Some uncertainty about Burkina Faso鈥檚 political future centers on the president and his intentions. In Jeune Afrique聽(in French),聽Marwane Ben Yahmed writes that Compaore is facing pressures (including from abroad) to step down when his term ends in 2015, but also getting encouragement (especially from his circle) to remain. Ben Yahmed writes (my translation) that Compaore already knows what he intends to do, but that 鈥渉e cannot commit himself to leave, at the risk of undermining his authority and launching a premature war of succession, just as he could not, evidently, announce that he will cling to power.鈥� The guessing game about the president鈥檚 intentions, which could run for over two years, will ensure that a hint of tension remains in Burkina Faso鈥檚 politics for some time to come.

鈥� Alex Thurston is a PhD student studying Islam in Africa at Northwestern University and blogs at Sahel Blog.