海角大神

The current stand off between Sudan and a newly independent South Sudan made me recall an anecdote told by Henry听Kissinger, after a series of negotiations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's father, the late听President Hafez al-Assad.

I will leave it to you to calculate who might be Hafez: South Sudan's President Salva Kiir or Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir? Or both?

South Sudan's top negotiator,听Pagan Amum told reporters in Addis Ababa Saturday: "Tomorrow the [oil] shutdown will be complete and what will be remaining to be done the听day after is finishing the cleaning and flushing of facilities." South听Sudan is shutting down its oil production, last put by officials at听350,000 barrels per day in November. Approximately 99 percent of the new state's income听is from the sale of oil.听

Earlier in the week, South Sudan's Information Minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin announced听that South Sudan and Kenya had signed a memorandum of understanding to听build an oil pipeline to the Kenyan port of Lamu. Construction of the听pipeline will begin 鈥渁s soon as sources of funding are made听available,鈥� which should take about a month, he said.

Minister Benjamin is reckoning that the pipeline could be completed in听10 months. That's a bullish call. The biggest problem is surely the sky-high risk of asymmetric guerrilla-type sabotage. I would think it's听highly likely. Therefore, insurance for the pipeline might well prove听punitive. However, the point remains that we in Kenya have an embedded geopolitical advantage in this region, that being the route to the sea. It is like the jugular vein for many of our East African neighbors.

Neither Juba or Khartoum are ranked AAA by credit rating agencies. Khartoum has lost a great chunk of their revenues. The South, meanwhile, can hardly afford to lose the cash flow that comes from the sale of its 350,000 barrels per day. And听that's why I started with Henry Kissinger's description, "I had even听known negotiators who put one foot over the edge, in effect听threatening their own suicide."

Now, there is a back story to this. You see, through 2011, Sudan听provided China with 5 percent of its total oil imports. You will recall that听35,000 Chinese workers were evacuated out of Libya in nine days last听year and China was rolled back and right out of Libya. Not so long听ago, President Obama authorized the deployment to Uganda of听approximately 100 combat-equipped US forces to help regional forces听ostensibly to 鈥渞emove from the battlefield鈥� 鈥� meaning capture or kill听鈥� Lord鈥檚 Resistance Army leader Joseph Kony.

Then in January this year,听President Barack Obama issued this memorandum.

It seems to me Sudan has become the epicenter of the US and听China's collision in Africa and that we are watching a 21st-century, high-stakes proxy war. I have to surmise that the US is underwriting听Salva's overdraft, what with all these demobilized soldiers roaming听around Juba, it would be suicide to have them unpaid for any length of听time. I wonder who is underwriting Bashir? Maybe, he is calling in听favors in Libya?

Aly-Khan听Satchu听is the CEO of the East African financial portal听http://www.rich.co.ke听and can be followed on Twitter @alykhansatchu

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