海角大神

No sooner had The Gambia鈥檚 outgoing president Yahya Jammeh had left the country聽Saturday聽evening, sealing the country鈥檚 first transition of power in more than two decades, than a hashtag began trending on Twitter in much of Africa: #LessonsfromGambia.聽

鈥淭ime is up for dictators in Africa #LessonsfromGambia,鈥� wrote one user.聽鈥淭he Power of the People Is Greater Than the People in Power #LessonsfromGambia,鈥� wrote another.聽

But if the departure of Mr. Jammeh 鈥� who had ruled the tiny country buried inside Senegal since taking office in a 1994 military coup 鈥� provoked many congratulations, equally exciting for Africa鈥檚 Twitterati was how it had happened.

The Gambia鈥檚 transition had been made possible in large part by the deft intervention of its neighbors in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), who over the past two months have shuffled between negotiations and the threat of military intervention to convince an often recalcitrant Jammeh that he had no choice but to go.

On a continent where regional bodies have often failed 鈥� by accident and by design 鈥� to shelter democracy, that seemed for many here a watershed moment.

"#ECOWAS set the blueprint that #Africa's affairs can be solve[d] within #Africa, without unfavourable western conditions #LessonsFromGambia,鈥� commented one Twitter observer. 鈥淚f regional blocks in #Africa take the same lead as #ECOWAS did in #Gambia, dictatorships will become a thing of the past.鈥澛�

Those tweets also speak to the outsized symbolic significance of The Gambia鈥檚 transition, which has felt to many in Africa like something far bigger than a changing of the presidential guard in the continent鈥檚 smallest mainland country. It聽seemed at times a warning for other longstanding dictators on the continent, which is home to seven of the world鈥檚 10 longest-serving rulers.

鈥淲e don鈥檛 live in isolation anymore, and the age of impunity is slowly coming to a halt,鈥� says Jeggan Grey-Johnson, coordinator for communication and advocacy with the Open Society Foundation鈥檚 Africa Regional Office in Johannesburg and a Gambian political analyst. 鈥淭he lesson here 鈥� and I think other long-serving heads of state will stand up and take note 鈥� is that with people power, combined with adequate response from the regional communities, democracy on the continent will be consolidated.鈥� 聽

Let us help you step down

ECOWAS took an early and energetic interest in The Gambia鈥檚 transition. In December, just days after Jammeh first conceded the election 鈥� then abruptly retracted his admission of defeat 鈥� a high-level delegation touched down in Banjul to talk the president down from his political precipice.

The team spanned a wide range of perspectives. It included the leader of regional powerhouse Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari 鈥� who had himself been part of his country鈥檚 first democratic transfer of power two years before 鈥� alongside presidents of two countries that had experienced violent political conflict and military intervention: Liberia鈥檚 Ellen Sirleaf Johnson and Sierra Leone鈥檚 Ernest Bai Koroma. Also present was one newly ousted president, John Mahama of Ghana, to show 鈥渢here鈥檚 life after losing the vote,鈥� says Paulin Maurice Toupane, a researcher with the Institute for Security Studies in Dakar, Senegal.

That initial negotiation fell through, but the message was clear: the region was watching.

鈥淚t helped very much that those regional actors presented a united front and a common understanding of the situation 鈥� that [Adama] Barrow was the victor and Jammeh must go,鈥� Mr. Toupane says. 鈥淚t meant they could speak as one voice and also helped them to earn the support of international bodies like the UN and [African Union] as well.鈥�

Seven thousand ECOWAS troops entered the country聽Thursday, where they met no resistance from a Gambian military thought to have an active fighting force of approximately 1,000 soldiers. The troops are still in the country indefinitely to secure the transition.聽

In southern and eastern Africa, many observers watched those dynamics with a mix of admiration and frustration.

鈥淲e need an ECOWAS in Southern Africa: neighbours who care and insist on the right thing being done on principle,鈥� tweeted Zimbabwean lawyer Fadzayi Mahere, alluding to the failure of southern Africa鈥檚 own regional body 鈥� the Southern African Development Community 鈥� to intervene after an obviously rigged election in her country in 2008.聽

But as Mr. Grey-Johnson notes, what worked in The Gambia can not simply be sutured onto the political situation of another region.

Southern Africa鈥檚 political leaders, for instance, are still largely former liberation fighters 鈥渨ho were together in the trenches and now stand beside one another on their political platform,鈥� he says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 great personal affinity and loyalty that would be very hard to disentangle.鈥�

Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe may be a despot, in other words, but he is also a comrade.

There are also other reasons why The Gambia may not be the simplest continental model.

The popularity factor

For one thing, Jammeh 鈥� a man of manic pronouncements and intense ego who appeared at times to be a creation straight out of dictator central casting 鈥� was unpopular in the region, and so had few political allies.

For another, his country is quite literally penned in by Senegal 鈥� a banana in the bigger country鈥檚 mouth, as many in the region joke.聽That made regional military intervention, when it became necessary last week, an unusually straightforward prospect.

Still, The Gambia could well become an example for the region going forward in another way, says Amnesty International West Africa researcher Sabrina Mahtani 鈥� 聽as a country that rebuilt a commitment to human rights and the rule of law after a long era of political repression.

鈥淏ut for that to happen, ECOWAS and the international community will have to continue to engage and support The Gambia going forward,鈥� she says. 鈥淭his struggle is not quite over yet.鈥�