海角大神

Ameet Mandal stands by a row of plastic-covered stools,聽surveying his latest venture: a trendy eatery that he had hoped would become as successful as his family鈥檚 other businesses.聽

His is among a cadre of prominent Burundi-Indian families that have for decades been entrepreneurial forces in the central African country, running businesses in sectors like healthcare, hospitality, retail 鈥� and keeping the economy afloat.

But Mr. Mandal's restaurant's launch was put on hold last spring after聽President Pierre Nkurunziza鈥檚 bid for a third term sparked a deadly political crisis that has wrecked the capital's economy. Peace talks have floundered and Mr.聽Nkurunziza has dug in his heels, leading the UN to warn of a risk of another civil war, a decade after the last war ended.聽

Now Mandal 鈥� not his real name 鈥� says he and other families are reconsidering their investments in Burundi and looking at more stable neighboring countries.聽At a certain point, he adds "we鈥檒l need to decide if we鈥檒l stay open鈥�if we鈥檒l need to look outside Burundi.鈥澛�

Mandal's grandfather arrived here in the 1940s, part of a wave of Indian migrants setting up shop in East Africa. Two generations later, after a tumultuous independence from Belgium in 1962 and two civil wars, the business outlook is grim. Last week, the African Union said it would聽not deploy a peacekeeping force to Burundi聽without Mr. Nkurunziza鈥檚 support.聽

鈥淭he first few months of the crisis were really, really bad鈥� a whole mess,鈥� says Mandal. 鈥�2015 started very well. But then we started feeling the political situation. Since then, it鈥檚 been the worst year since we opened.鈥澛�

'Things are at a standstill'聽

Business is down all around Bujumbura.聽At the central market, vendors complain that the cost of beans and potatoes, dietary staples here, have doubled in price. Other sellers have abandoned their stalls. And earlier this week, students across several campuses of the University of Burundi protested the implementation of a new 鈥渘o breakfast鈥� policy to cut costs.

The International Monetary Fund聽estimates that Burundi's economy shrank last year by 7 percent. And according聽to data provided by Burundi鈥檚 revenue services, tax collection has collapsed; revenues in the year to June 2015 shrank by more than a third from a year earlier.聽The government has blamed the slowdown on tax evasion, but analysts say it is more likely due to the weak economy and the flight of聽the middle and upper classes from Bujumbura.聽

鈥淏ujumbura is the heart of the Burundian economy. All the banks, the airport, the commerce is here,鈥澛爏ays Jean聽Bosco Nzosaba of Observatoire de L鈥橝ction Gouvernementale, a public finance advocacy group. 聽鈥淲hen the situation in Bujumbura is bad, the Burundian economy is bad."

And while the situation in the capital is dicey, 鈥渨e don鈥檛 know how rural markets have been affected,鈥� says Cara Jones, an assistant professor of political science at Mary Baldwin College in Staunton, Va., who expects things could be worse in the countryside.

Daniel聽Waraich, another business owner from a well-connected Burundi-Indian family who does a lot of business with the government and has yet to be affected, but the picture remains grim.聽鈥淲e don鈥檛 hear of new projects. It鈥檚 very visible that no new businesses are being created. Things are at a standstill.鈥�

Business is political

For Mandal, doing business in Burundi means remaining above the political fray as his family has done for generations. It is why they still call Burundi home, despite the instability.聽

But politics and the economy are strongly tied here. Moreover, over 40 percent of Burundi's budget聽comes from international donors, many of whom the government has alienated in recent months. Former colonial power Belgium has suspended direct aid to Burundi while continuing to fund nongovernmental programs.聽

Joblessness and poverty fueled last May's youth-led protests; many complained that jobs were handed out based on political affiliations.聽

鈥淚 have friends on both sides [of the political divide],鈥� Mandal says, a fact that forces him not to get involved. He asked that his name be changed for this article because he wants to remain politically neutral.聽鈥淲e have clients from opposition, we have clients from the government. We don鈥檛 get involved.鈥�

He says some of his businesses have seen their profits cut in half during the political crisis, making it聽difficult to pay salaries and rent, he says. Also, his employees have fled.

For now, he hopes this conflict, like the last two, will fade away before he is forced to relocate to another country like neighboring Kenya and Rwanda.