海角大神

After government troops overran his camp in June, opposition fighter John Tap fled to his village. But when he arrived, it was burned to ashes. Three of his children were dead.

Realizing he could not survive there, he gathered his remaining family and sought shelter at a United Nations base in Bentiu, the capital of Unity state. He joined around 76,000 civilians, as of聽the most recent count in April.聽

鈥淭he whole village was destroyed. No shelter, no grain, they had taken it all,鈥� says Mr. Tap, whose name has been changed. 鈥淓very family is coming [to the UN] because they don鈥檛 have anything to eat.鈥�

Rebels are on the run in Unity, an oil-rich state where South Sudan鈥檚 18-month civil war has burned hottest as its oil reserves make it a prize for either side. But unlike the past, when defeated rebels could easily melt back into their communities, they now find their villages empty.

The Sudan People's Liberation Army (SLPA) is accused of starving out tens of thousands of civilians in order to depopulate the armed opposition鈥檚 base.聽This campaign marks a new and potentially more lethal strategy in a conflict already replete with horrific atrocities committed by both sides.聽Survivors at the UN camp point to systematic and deliberate destruction of their villages, grain stocks, and cattle.聽

鈥淭he suffering it has caused civilians is just absolutely outrageous. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced. Their houses have been burned. Food has been burned in their houses. An astounding amount of cattle has been stolen,鈥� said Human Rights Watch researcher Skye Wheeler, speaking to the Monitor in Bentiu last week. 鈥淭he end game is to make it impossible for the [armed opposition] to exist.鈥�

The SPLA has denied any such strategy. But in Bentiu, the impact is apparent: some 500 people arrive daily at the UN camp, one of several in South Sudan providing shelter to civilians. Last week the state鈥檚 deputy governor declared victory over the opposition at a small ceremony in Bentiu.聽

Yet any success by government forces may be pyrrhic. By allegedly attacking civilians and their food sources on such a massive scale, the government may trigger famine in highly contested territories. And that, say peace activists, would further divide the two warring factions and potentially seed a more protracted conflict.聽

Livelihoods at risk

The government鈥檚 campaign has used two main tactics, according to interviews with survivors and human rights researchers. First are outright attacks on civilians as documented in a UN human rights report released last week that accuses the government of gang-raping women, murdering children, and burning people alive in their huts.

But it鈥檚 the second tactic that appears to be the bedrock of the campaign: mass looting of cattle, and destruction of grain stocks. Livestock and small-scale agriculture are the basis for livelihoods of nearly all civilians in Unity, despite its oil reserves.聽There are about twice as many cows as people; cows are both sustenance and an asset during hard times.

Destruction of such food sources is a direct aim at people鈥檚 livelihoods, says Nywao Dieu, a single mother of six waiting at the UN camp to register.聽鈥淧eople live on cattle and grain, and the cattle are taken and the grain is burned,鈥� she says.聽

Since the SPLA-led offensive began in late April,聽28,000 people like Ms. Dieu have arrived at the base, according to UN figures through mid-June. Thousands are arriving each week, and new arrivals all speak of similar attacks on their villages.聽

鈥淭here鈥檚 a very clear pattern that we鈥檝e picked up of village after village being attacked in the same way,鈥� says Ms. Wheeler, the human rights researcher. Yet these 28,000 are a fraction of the more than 100,000 people that the UN says have been displaced by the SPLA attacks. Most are living in聽swamps with little food or humanitarian relief, which is restricted by bureaucracy and violence.聽

Famine ahead

The ultimate outcome of the campaign may be famine. The USAID-funded Famine Early Warnings Systems Network聽predicted last week that starvation is 鈥渓ikely鈥� in parts of southern Unity.聽

South Sudan鈥檚 military spokesperson Col. Philip Aguer denied using a depopulation strategy.聽鈥淲hat you are saying is a strategy that has been used by Khartoum and Janjawid,鈥� he said from Juba, referring to the government of Sudan and its notorious cavalry which is accused of committing crimes against humanity in Darfur.

What is indisputable is that the offensive has ripped apart Unity鈥檚 communities. The fighting has pitted different clans of the Nuer tribe against each other, with the SPLA arming a pro-government faction to fight those aligned with the rebels.

鈥淭his is a terrible mistake,鈥� says local peace activist Reverend James Ninrew. He believes the government was dangerously short-sighted in arming militias and pitting them against rebels.

鈥淓ven if peace comes, whenever these [rebel-aligned] communities get an opportunity of getting arms they are feeling like they want to get revenge.鈥澛�