Why unchecked Ebola outbreak could crash West Africa's economy
The World Bank estimates that if the epidemic spreads throughout West Africa it could set back the regional economy by as much as $32.5 billion in direct and indirect costs. The US recorded its first Ebola fatality today.
The World Bank estimates that if the epidemic spreads throughout West Africa it could set back the regional economy by as much as $32.5 billion in direct and indirect costs. The US recorded its first Ebola fatality today.
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa could cost the region鈥檚 economies $32.5 billion by the end of 2015 if the epidemic isn鈥檛 quickly contained, the World Bank said Wednesday. An effective containment that prevents its spread throughout the region, however, would have a much lower economic impact.聽
The three worst affected countries 鈥撀燝uinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone 鈥� are already feeling the strain, and not just from the costs of combating the disease. Economists warn that in an age of聽globalization, nearby countries also face economic pressures of their own, even if they鈥檙e able to prevent the disease from crossing their borders.
David Evans, a senior economist at the World Bank, told the Associated Press that the epidemic has already聽forced mining operations to halt, businesses to close, and farming and investment to slow in West Africa. Prices of staple goods are shooting up while food supplies are dwindling across the region, the New York Times reports. Economic growth rates are projected to plummet as a result.
Most African countries have cancelled flights and closed their borders to Ebola-affected countries. Several international airlines, including British Airways, have also suspended flights to and from affected countries, further limiting international trade and business.
Given the fragile state of most West African economies, Forbes contributor Tim Worstall wrote in an opinion article that, 鈥渋t鈥檚 entirely possible that the economic effects of Ebola will kill more than the disease itself.鈥�
The World Bank said Ebola鈥檚 trajectory was highly uncertain, but that failing to prevent its spread to neighboring nations could be economically catastrophic. Even if the disease is rapidly contained, the bank estimates the economic impact at over $9 billion. To put this in context, the combined GDP of the three worst affected countries in 2013 was $13.1 billion, according to the World Bank.聽
"The international community must find ways to get past logistical roadblocks and bring in more doctors and trained medical staff, more hospital beds and more health and development support to help stop Ebola in its tracks," said World Bank President Jim Yong Kim in a statement.
National Public Radio reports that the epidemic聽threatens economic interdependence across Africa:
Five months into the epidemic, Ebola has killed more than 3,400 people and infected at least twice as many in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the World Health Organization estimates. The Centers for Disease Control estimated last month that the disease could infect 1.4 million people within four months, a worst-case projection.聽
The first Ebola patient diagnosed in the US died in a Dallas hospital Wednesday, the AP reports.