Will Somalia's Al Shabab hang together under new leadership?
The US airstrike that killed Ahmed Abdi Godane last week took out the mastermind of last year's Westgate Mall attack. The new leader of the Somali militant group is largely unknown and may struggle to hold it together.
The US airstrike that killed Ahmed Abdi Godane last week took out the mastermind of last year's Westgate Mall attack. The new leader of the Somali militant group is largely unknown and may struggle to hold it together.
US airstrikes in Somalia that killed the head of Al Qaeda鈥檚 East Africa affiliate, Al Shabab, could trigger a collapse of the terror group, analysts say. But in the short term the elimination of Ahmed Abdi Godane raises the risk of major new attacks.
The Pentagon confirmed聽Friday聽that Hellfire missiles and laser-guided bombs had killed Mr. Godane, one of Washington鈥檚 eight 鈥渨orld鈥檚 most wanted鈥� terror leaders.聽鈥淩emoving Godane from the battlefield is a major symbolic and operational loss to Al Shabab,鈥� Rear Admiral John Kirby, the Pentagon鈥檚 press secretary, said in a statement.
Under his guidance, Al Shabab, which started as a Somalia-based group seeking to impose聽sharia law in Somalia, adopted a more globalist agenda that culminated in the terror siege of a upscale Nairobi shopping mall in 2013.
Now that Godane is dead, opinions are divided on whether his successor, the little-known Sheikh Ahmed Umar Abu Ubaida, will 鈥� or even can 鈥� continue to lead the group and stage more spectacular terrorist operations.
鈥淕odane鈥檚 death leaves Al Shabab exposed and extremely vulnerable, and there is a serious possibility of its gradual disintegration,鈥� says Abdi Aynte, director of the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies, a think tank based in Mogadishu.
鈥淗e had spent the last three years consolidating his power to such an extent that he eliminated all rivals, and the checks and balances within the organization were completely overruled by his dictatorial tendencies,鈥� he says, adding that the group could splinter into rival factions, mostly with a nationalist rather than internationalist outlook.
US airstrikes in 2008 killed Aden Hashi Ayro, Godane鈥檚 immediate predecessor, raising hopes the group would collapse at that time. In fact, the opposite happened.聽
A collapse scenario represents an unexpected and significant shift, with implications for security policy across East Africa.聽In recent years, dozens 鈥� perhaps hundreds 鈥� of young foreign men have traveled to Somalia to join the group, in part because of a formal affiliation with Al Qaeda that Godane engineered in early 2012.
A group of four men from at least three different countries 鈥� Somalia, Norway and Sudan 鈥� carried out the Westgate mall attack last September, killing more than 70 people in what remains Al Shabab鈥檚 highest profile strike.
Three years earlier, another cell set off simultaneous suicide bombs in two bars in Kampala, Uganda鈥檚 capital, killing close to 80 people watching the soccer World Cup final in South Africa.
Intimidation strategy
Dozens of smaller strikes, mostly in Kenya, have since been blamed on Al Shabab. Analysts say Godane鈥檚 strategy of staging attacks outside Somalia is designed to intimidate East African peacekeepers, primarily Kenyan.聽
Abu Ubaida, Godane鈥檚 successor, is weak and carries little influence among the battle-hardened fighters of the Amniyat, Al Shabab鈥檚 commando unit.
鈥淚 can imagine he is going to want to stamp his authority on the group very soon, to show it is still relevant,鈥� Andrews Atta-Asamoah, regional security analyst at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, South Africa, who monitors Al Shabab, says.
鈥淭hat would best be done by going to the Amniyat to ask for a big, spectacular attack, or series of attacks, both in Somalia and in the neighboring countries. The risk of that is very high now.鈥�