Africa's baby-boom: Population to double by mid-century
A new report says 2.4 billion people will inhabit Africa by 2050. Growth will triple in some African nations.
A new report says 2.4 billion people will inhabit Africa by 2050. Growth will triple in some African nations.
Africa鈥檚 population is predicted to more than double to 2.4 billion people by 2050 according to a new study that also raises questions about whether efforts to lift the continent out of poverty may be in vain.
The 10 countries with the world鈥檚 highest fertility rates are all in sub-Saharan Africa, where mothers have an average of 5.2 children, according to a report released聽Thursday聽from the Washington DC-based Population Reference Bureau.
In Niger, which has the world's fastest population growth rate, women give birth to an average of 7.6 children, four times the US figure of 1.9.
鈥淩apid population growth makes it difficult for economies to create enough jobs to lift large numbers of people out of poverty,鈥� said Wendy Baldwin, the organization's president.
Seven of the 10 countries with the highest fertility rates also appear among the bottom 10 on the United Nations鈥� Human Development Index.
But Africa is also home to seven of the world鈥檚 fastest growing economies, points out Julia Sch眉nemann, director of the Africa Futures Project at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa.
鈥淩apid population growth is clearly going to increase pressure on Africa鈥檚 governments to deliver education, health care, security and, most importantly jobs,鈥� she says.
鈥淏ut it should be seen as an opportunity, too," Ms. Sch眉nemann adds. "African countries also have the world鈥檚 fastest economic growth rates. The question is, can those economies grow quickly enough to offset the demands of population growth. In general, I don鈥檛 think we should be too pessimistic.鈥�
International aid agencies are increasingly focusing efforts in Africa on family planning by advising governments how to increase access to contraceptives and helping women choose when to have children.
But this is unpopular in some countries, especially where religious doctrines that frown on contraception hold sway with government leaders.
Projections in the Population Reference Bureau study assume that 鈥渇amily planning will become widespread鈥� in Africa, says Carl Haub, co-author of the report.
鈥淚f not, Africa鈥檚 population will grow more rapidly, further constraining efforts to address poverty, create jobs, and protect the environment,鈥� he says.
By 2050, many African states will likely more than double in population. Kenya will rise from 44 million to 97 million people, and Nigeria from 174 million to 440 million.
Some nations will nearly triple their growth, the reports finds. Somalia will have 27 million people in 2050, up from an estimated 10 million today; the Democratic Republic of Congo鈥檚 71 million population is predicted to rise to 182 million.
The total number of people on the continent is predicted to rise from 1.1 billion to 2.4 billion.
The report gave 20 different indicators for more than 200 countries. It found that US mothers give birth to an average of 1.9 children. Bosnia-Herzegovina has the world鈥檚 lowest birth rate of 1.2 children.
The world鈥檚 population is forecast to increase from roughly 7.1 billion today to more than 9.7 billion in 2050, the report calculated.
India, currently the second most populous country in the world, will overtake China to become the most populous by 2030, it was estimated. By 2050, India鈥檚 population will be 1.6 billion and China鈥檚 1.3 billion.
The US population was estimated to rise from 316 million to 400 million over the same period.聽