海角大神

Breaking up is hard to do.

Neil Sedaka鈥檚 1962听lament has taken on new relevance for a pair of political divorcees 鈥� Britain and the 27-nation European Union. And their fraught separation has wider implications. Now that Britain鈥檚 withdrawal from the EU has moved from rhetoric to reality, it is dramatizing a key political struggle in today鈥檚 world: between assertive nationalism and international alliances.

The immediate flashpoint has been the pandemic. A major vaccine manufacturer, the Anglo-Swedish firm AstraZeneca, told the EU it would get millions fewer doses than expected this spring because of unexpected production bottlenecks. So late last month, the EU moved to limit deliveries to Britain from the European factories where many of the vaccines are made.

Brussels quickly rescinded that threat. But the row highlighted the starkly different paths that the EU and its recently departed partner have taken. Britain has approved, purchased, and begun distributing vaccines far more quickly and efficiently than the centralized EU.

That鈥檚 left advocates of a go-it-alone Britain feeling vindicated. It has also led to internal criticism of the EU authorities 鈥� one German weekly, Die Zeit, called the affair a perfect 鈥渁dvertisement for Brexit.鈥�

So does that mean the Brexit model works better? That the EU 鈥� with its pooled sovereignty and coordinated policy 鈥� is a relic of the now-tarnished idea of global connections and cooperation?

The jury is still out.

Major tests lie ahead for both sides, in their continuing response to the pandemic and the daunting task of post-pandemic recovery.

For Britain, one potential pitfall is the likely economic downdraft from Brexit.

More than half of British trade is with EU countries, and in the weeks since Brexit took effect in January, the new need to certify compliance with EU import regulations has led to complaints from companies of disruption, delays, and potentially prohibitive costs.

And an agreement on EU access for Britain鈥檚 services sector, the mainstay of its economy, has yet to be finalized.

Politically, the impact of all this has been overshadowed by the pandemic. And while Prime Minister Boris Johnson鈥檚 initial COVID-19 response was criticized as uneven and often confused, he has been far more successful in securing and distributing vaccines.

But a test of the popular mood is approaching. Elections are due in May, for local governments in England and the devolved parliaments of Wales and Scotland, the other nations of the United Kingdom. In Scotland, polls suggest that displeasure over both the pandemic response and Brexit 鈥� which most Scottish voters opposed 鈥� could mean a resounding victory for the Scottish National Party.

If that happens, the SNP has vowed to push for a new referendum on independence, and seek separately to rejoin the EU.

Yet the EU faces complex challenges too.

Brexit is not a big economic concern, since its main cost will fall on Britain. But as the vaccine dispute highlighted, the EU faces pressure to answer Brexit鈥檚 political argument: that countries are better off running their own affairs than relying on the union鈥檚 unwieldy and sometimes unresponsive centralized decision-makers.

Ironically, the president of the EU鈥檚 executive听branch made that point herself while defending her handling of the vaccine spat. 鈥淎 [single] country can be a speedboat,鈥� Ursula von der Leyen said. 鈥淭he EU is more like a tanker.鈥�

The tanker is listing.

Germany and France have been making the case that a shared European identity 鈥� and a distinct EU voice on the world stage 鈥� matter now more than ever. But some newer members have been charting a course at odds with the EU鈥檚 core ideals. Hungary and Poland have embraced 鈥渋lliberal democracy,鈥� reining in the media, curbing academic freedom, and limiting judicial independence.

The pandemic has also revealed wider tensions.

The EU鈥檚 initial response was anything but unified. Individual states scrambled last year to buy up needed protective equipment, every man for himself. The EU鈥檚 common, continent-wide vaccine strategy was meant to right that wrong. By bulk-purchasing vaccines, the EU wanted to avoid a situation in which wealthier countries bought up supplies while others waited.

But amid the slow roll-out, even Germany has made a separate arrangement with vaccine companies to supplement its EU allocation. Hungary has said it may start inoculating its population with Russia鈥檚 Sputnik V vaccine, which hasn鈥檛 been approved by the EU鈥檚 regulatory authority.

The tanker is listing, but it can still right itself by demonstrating a capacity to deliver the everyday benefits to EU citizens that derive from strength in numbers.

A key test, and opportunity, will come in the shape of the $900 billion fund it has earmarked for post-pandemic recovery, especially for EU states that have been hardest hit economically.

And the degree to which the EU succeeds 鈥� how well its efforts make the case for pulling together rather than going it alone 鈥� will matter beyond Europe.

Similar arguments are happening elsewhere. It was one defining difference between former U.S. President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, who has championed the importance of democracies working together.

He 鈥� unlike Mr. Trump 鈥� opposed Brexit. And now, he鈥檒l no doubt be hoping the EU manages to weather its new challenges.