海角大神

To India, its decision last week to revoke a decades-old constitutional provision granting the Muslim-majority territory of Kashmir a degree of autonomy is no one else鈥檚 business.聽

Indeed, sensitivity to even a whiff of international interference shone through in a jab at a rather bland response from the Chinese government. India 鈥渄oes not comment on the internal affairs of other countries,鈥� the foreign ministry sniffed in a statement, 鈥渁nd similarly expects other countries to do likewise.鈥�

Despite such protestations, it seems clear that India knew such a unilateral move on an issue that has stoked regional tensions for decades would not simply slip by as if New Delhi had just raised the domestic price of rice. The action in effect nullified a 1972 agreement with Pakistan that any revision of the disputed territory鈥檚 status would be decided bilaterally between the two nuclear-armed archrivals.

The reality is that India made its move to revoke Kashmir鈥檚 autonomy 鈥� something the country鈥檚 Hindu nationalists have demanded since shortly after independence in 1947 鈥� at a particularly fortuitous moment in global politics.聽

A resurgence of respect for national sovereignty and waning interest in multilateral solutions for territorial disputes work in India鈥檚 favor. Western powers are less prone to defend the democratic rights of regional minorities than they might have been following the Cold War.聽At the same time, international sympathies for autonomy movements are nowhere near as robust as they once were聽鈥� especially if they harbor any element of terrorist ideology.

Moreover, a return of big-power competition to the world stage means that none of the heavyweights (the United States, China, and Russia), not to mention lesser powers, wants to do much of anything to alienate an emerging economic and security player in a critical geopolitical region.

The muted American response to the move is a case in point.

President Donald Trump caught India off guard when he chose a Washington visit last month by Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan to offer to mediate the Kashmir conflict.聽He said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently asked him to consider playing such a role聽鈥撀燼 claim Indian officials quickly denied.

But now, 鈥淭he United States is basically saying, 鈥楰ashmir is an issue for India and Pakistan to figure out, but it is not something for us to get involved in,鈥� says Sadanand Dhume, a resident fellow focusing on South Asia at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in Washington.

鈥淲hat that tells me is that India is gaining importance for the United States as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy and as one of the most important bulwarks against a rising China,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚t is not about to let an issue like Kashmir stand in the way of that priority.鈥澛�

And then there鈥檚 China.

In another era, India鈥檚 giant neighbor might have come down harder against unilateral action in a region where it, too, has a territorial dispute with India. And initially Beijing did issue statements supportive of Pakistan鈥檚 鈥渓egitimate rights and interests鈥� in Kashmir, to the satisfaction of Pakistani officials.聽

But China has its own issues with restive territories 鈥� look no further than the recent turmoil in Hong Kong 鈥� and is not inclined to condemn another country鈥檚 action to deal with such trouble spots, some regional analysts say.

鈥淭he all-weather friend of Pakistan 鈥� by which of course I mean China 鈥� might have been expected to come out more forcefully on this, but to use an expression from cricket, it also finds itself on the back foot,鈥� says Waheguru Pal Sidhu, a clinical associate professor at New York University鈥檚 Center for Global Affairs and an expert in the role of India and other emerging powers in an evolving global order.

鈥淐hina has the issue of Xinjiang [region], and even Hong Kong, so for it to become the champion against this kind of action by another country 鈥� its credibility would be incredibly low to say the least,鈥� says Dr. Sidhu.

Xinjiang is home to 10 million Muslim Uyghurs and, though to a lesser degree than Kashmir, harbors resistance to central-government efforts to fully integrate the province politically and culturally into the nation. Some 1 million residents of Xinjiang are believed to have been detained in guarded reeducation centers, though China claims most have been released.

Pakistan鈥檚 initial aim was to press for what experts describe as an 鈥渋nternationalization鈥� of the Kashmir issue, first by having it taken up in the United Nations Security Council. Lack of enthusiasm among council members initially made that step seem unlikely, but by Thursday a closed-door consultation on the issue was set for Friday morning. It would be the first council discussion of Kashmir in decades.

Dr. Sidhu notes that Russia, one of the Security Council鈥檚 five permanent members, has come out in support of India鈥檚 move in Kashmir 鈥� 鈥減ayback,鈥� he says, for India鈥檚 quiet response to Russia鈥檚 annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Even major Muslim countries have indicated either outright support for India鈥檚 action on Muslim-majority Kashmir, or have shown they do not intend to let it stand in the way of their relations with New Delhi.

Mr. Dhume of AEI points to Monday鈥檚 announcement by Saudi Arabia鈥檚 state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco of a $15 billion investment in one of India鈥檚 largest companies.

鈥淪audi Arabia has traditionally been close to Pakistan, but over the past several decades India and Pakistan have diverged economically to where India鈥檚 economy is now about eight times larger than Pakistan鈥檚,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he Saudis can鈥檛 ignore that鈥� for the sake of Kashmir.聽

New Delhi has experience braving international opposition, with some regional analysts noting that India weathered decades of harsh reaction to its nuclear program and nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, the muted responses to Kashmir can鈥檛 help but elicit a sigh of relief from India鈥檚 government, Mr. Dhume says.

鈥淩ound One of the diplomatic maneuvering on this has clearly gone India鈥檚 way,鈥� he says.

While that may be true, some say the real test of international tolerance will come over the coming months, as India shifts from the current lockdown to implementing Kashmir鈥檚 new status and relationship with the central government. One key element to watch: how India handles Kashmir鈥檚 transition as the anticipated U.S. withdrawal from nearby Afghanistan plays out.

While most experts concur that India鈥檚 decision to act now on Kashmir reflects domestic politics, such as Hindu nationalists鈥� victory in May elections, some believe advancing U.S. talks with the Taliban over U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan precipitated India鈥檚 action.

Pakistan could move to activate its proxies in Kashmir (and in Afghanistan) to disrupt any political transition in the territory, Dr. Sidhu says, but that would likely only reduce whatever sympathies India鈥檚 rival has mustered over Kashmir, and 鈥減rovide India justification for a much more muscular crackdown.鈥�

Editor鈥檚 note: This story has been updated to include new reports that the Security Council聽plans to discuss Kashmir.