海角大神

Last summer, Atlanta Police Department Capt. Ralph Woolfolk accepted a devastating truth: Far too many Atlantans were killing each other, and they weren鈥檛 letting up.聽聽

As murder rates spiked in 2020 and remained at levels not seen since the early 1990s, Captain Woolfolk, the head of the city鈥檚 homicide division, hatched a plan.

On an early July 2022 evening, a new task force fanned out across the city for the first time. The mission of Operation Heatwave was to use crime data and word on the street not just to identify trouble spots but also to pinpoint residents at particular risk of engaging in gun violence.

Spanning various agencies, the unit had a dual purpose: a hard line on 鈥済uns, gangs, and drugs,鈥� but a gentler side, too. On every corner, the word went out: If you are not participating in the drug and gun trade, you will not be a target of stepped-up police activities. The central goal was to build trust 鈥� working with the community to lessen fear and improve life.

Nearly a year later, police here say Operation Heatwave has played a part in a historic drop in the city鈥檚 murder rate 鈥� 29% year over year, with nonfatal shootings down dramatically as well.

The new policing tactic is not the only cause 鈥� or even the major cause, some analysts say. Factors like an easing of the pandemic and political upheaval may play important roles. But Operation Heatwave鈥檚 early success fits into an encouraging trend: In big cities across the United States, murder rates have dropped dramatically in the last 12 months.

Reporting in The Atlantic, crime data researcher Jeff Asher has called it one of the largest annual percentage shifts in murder ever recorded. While up in some places and down in others, murders have declined 12.5%,聽on average, in 99聽U.S. cities that have released updated 2023 data, according to his analysis. New York鈥檚 murder rate is down by 13%, and shootings in the city are down by 26%. Jackson, Mississippi; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and Little Rock, Arkansas, are among the cities that have seen 30% decreases in murder.

Trends from early in the year often don鈥檛 hold up, Mr. Asher notes in another online post. But the development bears watching. It comes amid a broader聽evolution of policing in the post-George Floyd era as departments rethink tactics, attitudes, and even parts of their mission. In Atlanta, Operation Heatwave is offering early evidence that changes in policing can have a balming effect not just on police and community relations, but on levels of violence.

鈥淐rime going up ... was more than a gentle reminder that there is a place where we need armed guardianship in America and in our world,鈥� says Thaddeus Johnson, a criminologist at Georgia State University and a former Memphis police officer. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really about putting officers in positions where we don鈥檛 force them to be adversaries.鈥�

鈥淚t humanizes the officers for the public, and it reminds officers that it鈥檚 not us versus them,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚t makes them engage the public differently. We鈥檙e all human beings.鈥�

View from Atlanta

In Atlanta, the new policing strategy has led to more intelligence bubbling up from neighborhoods, breaking through a 鈥渘o snitches鈥� culture, police say. The result is a virtuous cycle that, residents say, has rebuilt some of the trust lost over years of conflict between police and African American communities, much of which came to a head in 2020.

鈥淚 tried to engineer processes that were focused on blending hot-spot policing with target-based policing 鈥� that鈥檚 the premise for Operation Heatwave,鈥� says Captain Woolfolk.

Once targets have been identified, often through street intelligence, the department deploys undercover and special teams in a 1,200-foot radius, focusing on those who have been deemed the most potentially dangerous individuals.

鈥淲e鈥檙e not taking people selling dope or doing nuisance [crimes]. And we have seen an impact as a result of that,鈥� he adds. 鈥淐ultivating our relationship with the community remains a top priority for us at all times. Our mission is to save the kids we can, move them toward the right resources and tools, and the ones that are adamant about doing criminal street gang activity and violence鈥� will be arrested.

Criminologists are quick to note that there are many potential explanations for the drop in murders nationwide. Throughout U.S. history, times of political upheaval and public distrust have led to spikes in murder. A slow return to normal after the pandemic may have brought back traditional restraints on lawlessness.

For example, declines are also happening in cities that have not added police officers or shifted strategies. Jeffrey Fagan, a crime expert at Columbia Law School, likens the rise and fall of the murder rate to 鈥渁n epidemic, and [it] behaves as such,鈥� he says in an email. 鈥淧olice and incarceration are minor actors in these episodes.鈥�

But new research on focused deterrence 鈥� the strategy heart of Operation Heatwave 鈥� suggests that focusing aggressive policing only on the most at-risk individuals while promoting community-led violence prevention can be effective.

鈥淔ocused deterrence works because it focuses us on the right people, and that鈥檚 not looking at people鈥檚 race or ethnicity or things like that, you look at the data,鈥� says David Harris, a police expert at the University of Pittsburgh School of Law. Analyzing data correctly and vigorously 鈥渃an identify for us the several hundred people ... in any large city who may end up on either end of a gun. Then the question is: What do you do?鈥�

Like many cities, Atlanta has struggled with that question. The city was rocked by violence during the 2020 social justice protests. Police shot an unarmed man, sparking more retribution and fear. Individual police officers struggled with questions of how to do their jobs.

鈥淓veryone was afraid, so how can you police in that climate?鈥� says Professor Johnson, a senior fellow at the Council on Criminal Justice. 鈥淗ow do you approach a traffic stop? How do you continue to police, even if you鈥檙e doing it the right way? How do you make room for mistakes in a job? Now, these departments are learning how to do more with less officers while keeping them safer. That鈥檚 what it should be about.鈥�

Across the U.S., demands to defund the police gradually gave way to police departments using pandemic funds to hire more officers to address rising crime. But many departments appear to be learning lessons.

鈥淧olice can鈥檛 be everywhere all the time. They don鈥檛 see everything, they don鈥檛 know everything,鈥� says Professor Harris, author of 鈥淕ood Cops: The Case for Preventive Policing.鈥� 鈥淭hat means you must have the cooperation of the people you are trying to serve.鈥�

鈥淵ou don鈥檛 get cooperation and information without having some trust built up. That is a difficult thing to do, it takes time,鈥� he adds. 鈥淏ut for the police departments that are putting in the work, they are getting to the point where the community is out there for them.鈥�

Gloria Leonard鈥檚 doorbell

Atlanta resident Gloria Leonard still sees too much crime. She became the president of a local neighborhood association when the previous president was shot and killed in his front yard.

鈥淭here is a lot of murdering going on,鈥� she says.

Her relationship with the police has often not been good. 鈥淪ometimes [officers] want to act bad and talk to you in any kind of way, and I think, 鈥業鈥檓 not talking to you like that, so hold up.鈥欌��

But when Ms. Leonard recently reported that her doorbell camera had captured footage of a car break-in, an officer quickly responded. After seeing the video, he said, 鈥淚鈥檒l be right back; I think I just saw that guy.鈥�

His quick search of the area failed to find the suspect, but Ms. Leonard was still impressed. The officer鈥檚 posture was friendly and attentive. And another request she made 鈥� to have cops cruise through the neighborhood at different times of the day 鈥� was granted.

鈥淵ou are our eyes and ears out here,鈥� she recalls the officer saying. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 do this without you.鈥�