海角大神

As Wallace Stegner, 鈥渢he dean of Western writers,鈥� once observed, California is like the rest of America, only more so. It鈥檚 a reference to the state鈥檚 character, but it could just as easily apply to its weather.

Extreme wildfires. Prolonged drought. And now, massive rain and flooding. In a surprise pummeling, along with the new year has come an unusually large number of powerful, back-to-back atmospheric rivers: narrow bands through the atmosphere that carry water vapor. They have flowed the length of the state 鈥� and blown destruction eastward across the United States. In the Golden State, they鈥檙e dumping rainfall that鈥檚 400% to 600% above average in some places, forcing mass evacuations, closing highways, shutting down power, and killing 19 people.

鈥淐alifornia is a land of extremes,鈥� says Julie Kalansky, deputy director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. It stands out for having the greatest annual variation between wet and dry years in the continental U.S. Drought sets up conditions for intense wildfire, which sets up conditions for dangerous mudslides and flooding when heavy rain falls. Such cascading events make more extreme weather events possible, she says.

And yet, California is 鈥渧ery forward-thinking鈥� as it transitions to greater preparedness for extreme weather and climate change, observes Dr. Kalansky. That鈥檚 no easy task considering the variety of weather challenges, the size and geographic variation of the state, and its 40 million residents 鈥� the largest state population in the country. 鈥淭hey have to plan for all these different extremes,鈥� she says. 鈥淏ut it is very complex to be able to do that聽all at the same time.鈥�

Emergency prep: 鈥渞ecord investments鈥澛犅�

Brian Ferguson, deputy director of crisis communication at the California Office of Emergency Services, says the state has made 鈥渞ecord investments鈥欌�� in emergency management over the past four years, with more planes, helicopters, and firetrucks than at any point in California鈥檚 history. The effort includes more first responders, law enforcement, and technology, too, he says. 鈥淲e鈥檙e better prepared for these disasters because of that.鈥�

Some of the investments do double duty. New planes with infrared capability to detect wildfires and their spread are also being used to fly over this year鈥檚 floods and identify the most dangerous areas.

The damage estimate from this season鈥檚 atmospheric rivers runs into the billions 鈥� a level that now could be typical alongside other disaster costs for the state, says Paul Ullrich, professor of regional and global climate modeling at the University of California, Davis. 鈥淲e鈥檝e been seeing ... billion-dollar disasters every year that have major socioeconomic repercussions associated with them, and we鈥檙e seeing no slowing down of the kinds of extreme weather events that we鈥檙e experiencing here.鈥澛�

But preparedness efforts have made a difference, Professor Ullrich adds. Major floods have occurred throughout California history, he explains. Climate change has exacerbated them 鈥渁 little bit,鈥� but 鈥渙verall, California is just inherently an extreme place.鈥� Because of its history with floods, 鈥渨e know what to do to some degree.鈥�

鈥淚 know many places are still flooded. Nonetheless, I think that the damages are much less than they would have been maybe even 15, 20 years ago because of efforts put into building levees and water-management infrastructure that can deal with this level of rainfall.鈥� He points specifically to reservoir management that, in conjunction with weather forecasting, controls reservoir levels when there鈥檚 major rain like this.

Long-term challenges聽

On the other hand, the state鈥檚 drought preparedness 鈥渋s a major problem,鈥� he says, primarily because of its economic reliance on agriculture, which accounts for 80% of water use. While the rainfall is helping with the drought in the short term by replenishing depleted reservoirs and adding significantly to the snowpack, it won鈥檛 do much for the long term, Professor Ullrich and others say, because of continued aridification of the West.聽

Mounting weather challenges put pressure on the state and individuals to better prepare, says Mr. Ferguson of the state鈥檚 emergency management office. Californians are well attuned after successive intense wildfire seasons to the dangers of fire, but they need to recover their muscle memory when it comes to excessive rain and flooding. After three years of drought, it鈥檚 鈥渨eather whiplash鈥� to encounter this ongoing series of storms.

People underestimate the dangers posed by water, according to Mr. Ferguson, although the state鈥檚 deadliest disasters come from flooding. Many of the fatalities from these storms were preventable, he says, either by people evacuating or not driving through flooded areas. Just 12 inches of water can cause a driver to lose control of a vehicle.

Despite the state鈥檚 investment in emergency management, 鈥渢here鈥檚 no amount of money that can keep up with the pace that our world is changing around us,鈥� says Mr. Ferguson. That鈥檚 why local communities and neighbor-to-neighbor help are so important during dangerous events, he emphasizes.

Surviving fire, mudslide, and flood聽

Last Sunday night, as rain was pouring down and the worst of the storms was developing, two sheriff鈥檚 deputies came to the door of Dana and Corby Fisher in coastal Montecito, telling them of an evacuation order. It applied to the entire town of more than 8,000 people.聽

The Fishers live 100 yards from where, five years ago, the state鈥檚 deadliest mudslide killed 23 people and destroyed more than 100 homes. It followed on the heels of the massive Thomas Fire, which stripped the mountains above Montecito of their vegetation, leaving soil vulnerable when heavy rains arrived. The Fishers had just completed a kitchen remodel at the time. Their demolition container simply disappeared from the street and their car ended up in a neighbor鈥檚 yard. It took them a year and a half to restore their property.

Mr. Fisher is 鈥渋mpressed鈥� with the sheriffs who came to their door in torrential rain, walking in the same spot where people had been swept away in January 2018. 鈥淔or them to have that dedication is amazing,鈥� he says, explaining that it鈥檚 why his son became a firefighter.

But the Fishers decided to shelter in place. Since the Thomas mudslide, his house is now surrounded by three concrete walls 鈥� two built by neighbors and one formed by the Fishers鈥� concrete planters. To protect themselves, they fortified their property with sandbags 鈥� and with prayer. 鈥淲hat you have to use is your God and your common sense,鈥� he says in a phone interview.

The community has also taken steps over the last five years, expanding catch basins and building an additional one, as well as putting up steel-ring nets in canyons. Mr. Fisher believes much effort and cost could be saved with regular, prescribed burns. In any case, this time, there was no river of water and no mud coming down his street. 鈥淭he water stayed in the creek, so our neighborhood was fine.鈥�