海角大神

Is it a problem for Mitt Romney that he speaks French? We mean that in the context of the presidential election, of course 鈥� not his ability to impress the cashiers at Au Bon Pain.

Newt Gingrich thinks Mr. Romney鈥檚 linguistic skills are a big deal, all right. The ex-speaker has a new ad up called, 鈥淭he French Connection,鈥� that does its best to link Romney to failed Democratic presidential candidates Mike Dukakis and John Kerry. One way in which it does this is to play the French theme, hard.

The ad鈥檚 background music is accordions, the kind of thing they use in the soundtrack of low-budget films to say 鈥淧aris at night.鈥� It puts up the famous clips of Michael Dukakis in a tank, looking like a chipmunk, and John Kerry windsurfing. (Is windsurfing a French sport?) It ends with this line: 鈥淢assachusetts moderate Mitt Romney will say anything to win, anything... And just like John Kerry, he speaks French too.鈥�

Then there鈥檚 a quick clip of Romney saying 鈥渂onjour,鈥� followed by him announcing his name in French.

First off, we鈥檒l say that if Romney speaks French, it鈥檚 only barely. In the ad it鈥檚 hard to tell if he鈥檚 saying his name or ordering a croque monsieur.

But European links indeed are a bad thing, at least to many in the GOP base. Europe is the home of European social democracies, which is what President Obama wants to turn the US into, which is why he鈥檚 a socialist. (We鈥檙e just repeating the argument.)

You鈥檒l hear 鈥淓urope鈥� and 鈥淔rance鈥� invoked as negatives by many speakers at the GOP convention later this year. Just wait.

Plus, to link a US politician to Europe is to say implicitly he鈥檚 not the sort of person you could sit down at a sports bar with and have a discussion about whether Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis should retire.

South Carolina has a much more conservative electorate than does New Hampshire. In 2008, 60 percent of South Carolina voters in the GOP primary described themselves as 鈥渆vangelicals.鈥� This year in New Hampshire, only 22 percent of primary voters described themselves as such.

So it is possible that the Palmetto State could respond to this negative ad. It is kind of pitched to their world view. But it鈥檚 also possible they won鈥檛, since negative ads about Romney don鈥檛 seem to be hurting him in South Carolina. At least, they aren鈥檛 hurting him yet. There鈥檚 been lots of talk about the ads funded by a pro-Gingrich super PAC that hit Romney for 鈥渉eartless鈥� behavior when he ran Bain Capital, but so far Romney鈥檚 polls are holding up OK.

A new Rasmussen survey has Romney in the lead in South Carolina, with 28 percent of the vote, compared to Gingrich鈥檚 21 percent. In the RealClearPolitics rolling average of major polls, Romney has dropped a couple of points in the state from his high, and Gingrich has turned up a bit, but Romney would still be rated a comfortable favorite.

But we did see today an interesting piece on another aspect of Romney, personally, that could be a problem for him down the line. That aspect is financial: He鈥檚 rich, and voters know it.

A long post at the polling blog, Monkey Cage, suggests that Romney is vulnerable to charges that he鈥檚 a member of what the Occupy folks call the one percent. Seventy-two percent of respondents to a poll conducted by George Washington University political scientist John Sides and UCLA鈥檚 Lynn Vavreck said the phrase 鈥減ersonally wealthy鈥� described Mitt Romney very well. (Some 45 percent said it described Barack Obama very well.) Furthermore, 89 percent said that the phrase 鈥渃ares about the wealthy鈥� also applied to Romney. (Fifty-five percent applied that phrase to Obama.)

Now, that would not be so much of a problem if voters also thought that Romney cared about people like them. But in the Sides poll, only 41 percent of respondents agreed with that statement.

So here is the problem that Romney confronts. Americans perceive him as personally wealthy more than they do Obama. They perceive him as caring more about the wealthy, but less about 鈥減eople like me鈥� and the middle class, than does Obama.

In part, it is due to polls such as these that many analysts believe that attacks on Romney鈥檚 record at Bain are just beginning, and will only accelerate if he wins the nomination and faces a well-funded and rested Obama machine in summer and fall.