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Where does Ron Paul go from here? The Texas libertarian didn鈥檛 win the Iowa caucuses, of course 鈥� he finished third, just behind winner Mitt Romney and virtual co-winner Rick Santorum.

But as the old pundit line goes, there are three tickets out of the Hawkeye State 鈥� and Representative Paul got one of them. So he鈥檒l continue to ride his anti-intervention, pro-drug legalization, Fed-bashing campaign as long as his money and volunteers hold out.

To hear the Paul people tell it, their guy is now the chief alternative to Mitt Romney. Mr. Santorum is 鈥渁 dead end,鈥� according to a piece posted on Paul鈥檚 national website. The former Pennsylvania Senator has struggled to raise money and establish an organization outside of Iowa.

鈥淭his is a now a two-way race between establishment candidate Mitt Romney and the candidate for real change, Ron Paul,鈥� says the story.

Well, nice try, but we don鈥檛 think so. Would this be a good time to point out that Paul is still running behind Newt Gingrich in national polls, with only 13 percent of the GOP vote? Or that he has yet to break single digits in surveys of some important upcoming primary states?

Yes, Paul鈥檚 doing better than he did last time, and he鈥檚 got lots of cash and committed followers. He could score big in caucus states such as Nevada. But his appeal to actual Republicans is limited. And he is running for the Republican nomination, after all.

鈥淚 think Ron Paul is going to be in it for a long time, but I don鈥檛 think he鈥檚 a viable national candidate,鈥� said Iowa鈥檚 veteran GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley on Wednesday during an appearance on CNBC鈥檚 鈥淪quawk Box.鈥�

Just look at the Iowa entrance polls conducted by a media consortium to see Paul鈥檚 promise and problems. On the one hand, he won a plurality of men in Iowa 鈥� taking 24 percent of the male vote. He was the overwhelming favorite of young voters, winning almost half the ballots cast by people aged 18 to 29.

But scroll down and you鈥檒l see that Paul garnered the support of only 14 percent of self-described Republicans at the caucuses. His vote total was powered by independents 鈥� he took 43 percent of the independent vote.

Similarly, his strongest ideological category was moderates. He took 40 percent of the vote of caucus-goers who described themselves as 鈥渕oderate or liberal鈥�.

Now, does this mean Paul would run well against President Obama in a general election campaign? Perhaps 鈥� but he鈥檚 got to get there first. And the theme of the GOP primaries so far has been that of a conservative slice of the party searching for an alternative to Mitt Romney, whom they believe to be a closet moderate himself. They are unlikely to coalesce around someone with Paul鈥檚 views, particularly his anti-interventionist, dovish foreign policy stance.

鈥淭he GOP nominee, whether Romney or Santorum, will be staunchly in favor of a military option, if needed, to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon ... He or she will be opposed to slashing defense,鈥� wrote conservative Jennifer Rubin on her Washington Post blog, Right Turn, in a piece titled, 鈥淐redit Santorum with sinking Ron Paul.鈥�

That said, Paul鈥檚 clearly going to remain a factor throughout the race, perhaps all the way to the GOP convention in Tampa, Fla. It鈥檚 possible he鈥檒l be a force shaping the GOP going forward. That鈥檚 his follower鈥檚 dream 鈥� and perhaps Mitt Romney鈥檚 (or Rick Santorum鈥檚, or Newt Gingrich鈥檚) nightmare.

鈥淚f Ron Paul comes to the convention with 100s of delegates 鈥� he can veto the veep pick, shape the platform, cause a ruckus in Tampa,鈥� tweeted ABC political reporter Terry Moran on Tuesday night.