海角大神

Dear reader:

Throughout the Trump era, there have been periodic news events that the D.C. chattering class 鈥� often on both sides of the aisle 鈥� sees as game-changing. So big, so unusual, so BREAKING NEWS IN ALL CAPS, that everyone agrees it will have a significant impact.

And then, in short order, it becomes clear that it isn鈥檛 going to change anything at all.

It鈥檚 too early to know if today鈥檚 testimony by Gordon Sondland, the ambassador to the European Union, will turn out to be another one of those days 鈥� or will actually become a bona fide turning point.

Appearing before the House Intelligence Committee, Mr. Sondland said there was indeed 鈥渁 quid pro quo鈥� 鈥� a White House meeting made conditional on Ukraine鈥檚 president launching specific investigations. He said President Donald Trump鈥檚 personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani 鈥渆mphasized that the President wanted a public statement鈥� about investigations into the 2016 election and Burisma, the Ukrainian company where Hunter Biden, Vice President Joe Biden鈥檚 son, served on the board. Mr. Sondland also said this was not a secret: 鈥淓veryone was in the loop.鈥�

Mr. Sondland said he was never told why U.S. aid to Ukraine had been held up. But he said he 鈥渃ame to the conclusion鈥� that if Ukraine demonstrated 鈥渁 serious intention鈥� to open those investigations, 鈥渢he hold on military aid would be lifted.鈥�

To many, Ambassador Sondland鈥檚 testimony represented 鈥渙ne of those bombshell days,鈥� as Ken Starr, the independent counsel whose investigation led to the Clinton impeachment, put it on Fox News.聽鈥淭his is the smoking gun,鈥� Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich.,聽told Politico.聽

Yet almost immediately, President Trump鈥檚 allies began insisting it was all a nothing burger. 鈥淲hat this 鈥榖ombshell鈥� hearing is amounting to: Another witness who never heard anything from the president,鈥澛爐weeted聽Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C. 鈥淪ondland SPECULATED why there was a hold on aid,鈥澛爐weeted聽Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y. 鈥淧OTUS told Sondland 鈥榥o quid pro quo鈥� & the aid was released w/out any new investigations.鈥�

Bottom line: Republican lawmakers are highly unlikely to abandon Mr. Trump聽unless their voters do. And as FiveThirtyEight聽pointed out聽earlier this week, there鈥檚 been very little movement in the polling on impeachment. Notably, according to a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll, nearly two-thirds of Republicans believe Mr. Trump did ask Ukraine to investigate the Bidens 鈥� but the vast majority don鈥檛 see it as an impeachable offense.

Will today鈥檚 testimony move the needle? Perhaps. But it seems unlikely.

Let us know what you鈥檙e thinking at聽csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.