Expanding Democratic field reflects jitters over Trump 鈥� and the unknown
Deval Patrick鈥檚 last-minute entry may say less about other 2020 contenders than about President Trump鈥檚 potential ability to expand the electorate.
Deval Patrick鈥檚 last-minute entry may say less about other 2020 contenders than about President Trump鈥檚 potential ability to expand the electorate.
Dear reader:
On Capitol Hill Wednesday, two State Department officials spoke publicly about President Donald Trump鈥檚 efforts to get Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son 鈥撀爐estimony Democrats clearly believe was damaging to the president.
Yet if you look at what鈥檚 happening right now in the 2020 campaign, Democrats don鈥檛 seem at all confident they鈥檙e going to beat him.
Today, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick announced聽he鈥檚 entering the race. Last week, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg聽signaled聽he may also get in. There have been聽rumors聽about former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder. Even Hillary Clinton recently聽offered up聽something conspicuously coyer than a 鈥渘o.鈥�
The common explanation for this last-minute flurry of would-be contenders is that many Democrats see the current field as weak: Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are too far left to win a general election, the thinking goes; Mr. Biden has been an unsteady performer in debates and on the stump; South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg is too young and inexperienced.
But late entries almost聽never succeed. And Democrats鈥� nervousness may have less to do with their own candidates鈥� flaws than with a fear of Mr. Trump 鈥� and the unknown.
While the president has energized Democratic voters and appears to have pushed many Republicans in the suburbs into the Democratic column, there are also signs he could expand his own vote total in 2020. The question is by how much.
In a piece last month from Wisconsin 鈥� a state the Clinton campaign was confident it would win, but which went narrowly went for Mr. Trump in 2016 鈥� Bloomberg鈥檚 Francis Wilkinson聽wrote: 鈥淪ome Democrats fear that Trump has the equivalent of reserve troops 鈥� non-college-educated white males who didn鈥檛 vote in 2016 but who, after four years of Trump鈥檚 domination of media, political culture and the very oxygen we all breathe, might turn out in 2020.鈥�
Likewise, The New York Times鈥檚 Nate Cohn聽notes聽that recent polling from battleground states suggests 鈥渢here are plenty of people who haven鈥檛 voted recently who support the president. And those people seem fairly likely to vote.鈥�
If 2016 taught Democrats anything, it鈥檚 that they don鈥檛 know what they don鈥檛 know. The electorate in 2020 may look like it did in 2016 鈥� or it may look markedly different. And that鈥檚 hard to plan for.
Let us know what you鈥檙e thinking at聽csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.