Trump's position in polls isn't pretty 鈥� but a small electoral map could help
The president is further behind his likely challengers than any incumbent in modern history. But the small number of competitive states may benefit him.
The president is further behind his likely challengers than any incumbent in modern history. But the small number of competitive states may benefit him.
Dear reader:
鈥淚n the pre-Trump era, any incumbent with his current math would be treated like a dead man walking.鈥� That鈥檚 Axios鈥檚 Mike Allen,聽pointing to聽an array of warning signs for the president 鈥� from a 41% approval rating, to polls showing him trailing all of his top Democratic opponents, to the fact that disapproval of his performance outweighs approval in key swing states.
In fact, President Trump鈥檚 position is unprecedented in modern history. 鈥淣o incumbent president has ever聽polled this poorly聽against his likely challengers at this point in the campaign,鈥� writes CNN鈥檚 Harry Enten.聽Looking at聽incumbents going back to World War II, he finds that 9 of 11 presidents led their prospective challengers at this point in time, while the two who trailed 鈥� Presidents Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama 鈥� were behind by just four and one points, respectively. By contrast, recent polls show Mr. Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by double digits.
And yet, despite all this, many journalists and political observers seem to think the president may win. Mr. Allen chalks it up to fighting 鈥渢he last war鈥� 鈥� the chattering class got burned by underestimating Mr. Trump鈥檚 strength during the 2016 campaign, the thinking goes, so they鈥檙e overestimating it now.
But there鈥檚 another factor at work: the Electoral College. After all, Mr. Trump lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million ballots last time around, but won the White House because of narrow victories in a handful of key Rust Belt states. The political analysts sketching out possible Trump victories aren鈥檛 ignoring his poll numbers 鈥� indeed, some suggest he might lose the popular vote by an聽even larger margin. But as The Washington Post鈥檚 Dan Balz recently聽put it, the entire election may once again come down to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida. And there are reasons to believe that Mr. Trump could pull off victories in all of those states, where the electorate tends to be a little older and a little whiter than the nation as a whole.
To be sure, the 2020 election is still more than a year away, and there are a number of factors 鈥� from the economy to foreign affairs to things we can鈥檛 foresee 鈥� that could upend the calculus. But it鈥檚 easy to envision a historically weak president benefitting from a historically tiny electoral battleground.
Let us know what you鈥檙e thinking at聽csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.