海角大神

Jack Shafer聽has a shrewd take on why 鈥�Team Clinton will beat the press 鈥� again.鈥�

That鈥檚 exactly right. The Clintons have been remarkably good at riding out scandals, real and otherwise, and turning them into 鈥渙ld news.鈥�

But Hillary Clinton lacks something that her husband does not: likability. She鈥檚 at least as talented a policy wonk as Bill and is certainly much more disciplined. But he possesses a legendary ability to charm all but the most hardened opponents while she leaves even supporters cold.聽Because of that, she鈥檚 much less able than him at overcoming the nagging sense of shadiness.

After losing the nomination to Barack Obama in 2008, she enjoyed an amazing surge of popularity during her tenure as secretary of State. She immersed herself in the job and was simultaneously a loyal servant of the president and the most visibly competent member of the administration. Her favorability ratings surged into the low 60s and stayed in the high 50s for some time. About two years ago, they began to plummet and her unfavorability ratings began to surge. She鈥檚 currently at 46.9% favorable and 46.1% unfavorable in the聽HuffPo average.

Now, it鈥檚 true that she鈥檚 not only the runaway favorite to win the Democratic nomination but has a solid lead over any potential Republican rival. But here鈥檚 the thing: She and Joe Biden are the only truly known quantities in the race. A Gallup survey taken last July showed a full聽91% having an opinion聽about her. The next closest was Biden, who registered 80%. 聽Most of the Republicans were polling in the 30s and 40s. Only Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, both coming in at 65%, had very high recognition 鈥� and that鈥檚 just a 鈥渇amiliarity鈥� rating. Clinton has been in the national spotlight continuously since the 1992 primaries 鈥� a full 23 years. None of the others comes anywhere close.

James Joyner is editor of the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/.