Mitt Romney to announce 2016 plans today: Is he in?
Update: He's out!
Update: He's out!
After weeks of signaling another run for the presidency, Mitt Romney is set to make an announcement at 11 Eastern today. He鈥檚 almost certainly in.
AP聽(鈥淩eports: Romney To Announce He鈥檚 Running For President In 2016鈥�):
And that鈥檚 鈥淲hy Mitt Romney Has to Make Up His Mind Now,鈥� according 聽Chuck Todd聽and company:
Bloomberg鈥檚聽Mark Halperin聽explains 鈥�Why Mitt Romney Thinks He Can Win (and Jeb Bush Can鈥檛).鈥�
The early polling is mostly meaningless. It鈥檚 all name recognition at this point and Romney is easily the best known potential Republican candidate. One presumes he鈥檒l run again because, really, that鈥檚聽what he does聽and he does genuinely seem to believe it鈥檚 his destiny to be president. But it鈥檚 been a mighty long time since a party renominated a loser (the GOP did it with Nixon in 1968, eight years after his narrow loss to Kennedy in 1960. The Democrats ran Adlai Stevenson against Ike in 1952 and 1956; with the outcome certain, there wasn鈥檛 much downside). Al Gore would have been a likely contender in 2004 given the disputed nature of the 2000 contest. But Romney got drubbed and ran an awful campaign. Why the nominating electorate would give him a second shot escapes me.
That said, I haven鈥檛 the slightest clue who would beat him.
Jeb Bush has been out of the limelight a long time now. His biggest asset is that he鈥檚 generally thought of as competent and reasonable. His biggest liability is that his last name is 鈥淏ush.鈥�
Christie is simply too abrasive to survive a national run, especially in a contest where schmoozing people in Iowa and New Hampshire takes up the first year. Nor is there any obvious upside to him over Romney or Bush.
Kasich is competent but bland and has given no indication of fire in the belly. Walker is a virtual unknown nationally aside from the much-ballyhooed showdown with the teachers鈥� union; I don鈥檛 see how that propels him to the nomination.
I don鈥檛 think any of the more extreme candidates 鈥� Cruz, Huckabee, Rubio, Jindal, etc.鈥� have a shot.
[Update: He's out!]
James Joyner is editor of the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/.