海角大神

Democrats have long had an electoral advantage among women, particularly among single and suburban professional women, that has helped propel them to victory in elections both in presidential and non-presidential years. In 2008, for example, exit polling showed that聽President Obama won women by 56% to 49%;聽and in 2012,聽the breakdown was 55% to 44%.聽The reasons for the disparity in these elections, and in many others at the national, state, and local level, have been the subject of speculation for decades, ever since the so-called 鈥済ender gap鈥� was first noticed. Among the factors that have been cited has been the fact that women tend to have more 鈥渓iberal鈥� views on economic and pocketbook issues and tend to support a less aggressive foreign policy, although that last one doesn鈥檛 really apply to the Democratic Party in the age of Obama, and, of course, the fact that the Republican Parry鈥檚 stance on social issues, as well as debacles like 2012's comments by various candidates about abortion and rape and the comments of many on the right about birth control issues, have turned women off to the party as a whole. That doesn鈥檛 mean that Republicans can鈥檛 do well among women, of course. Ronald Reagan聽won the women鈥檚 vote quite handily in his 1984 landslide,聽for example, and聽聽George H.W. Bush won it narrowly in his smaller 1988 landslide.聽More recently, just last year, Chris Christie won the women鈥檚聽聽vote in deep blue New Jersey by twelve points. In 2010,聽Republicans won women by a narrow 1%聽on the way to taking control of the House. Now, as we head into a midterm that could hand control of the Senate,聽President Obama鈥檚 problems with women, which seem to have come out of nowhere, threaten to hurt his party:

Arguably, this loss of the advantage among female voters is a good part of the reason that Democratic candidates for the Senate are struggling this year and Republicans look likely to take control of the Senate with only two weeks to go until Election Day. In Alaska, for example,聽Dan Sullivan has a comfortable lead over Mark Begich聽in the RealClearPolitics average. Cory Gardner appears to be pulling ahead of Mark Udall in Colorado, with聽a 3.0 point lead in the average in that state.聽After a brief tizzy caused by a poll that appears now to be an outlier, Sen. Mitch McConnell appears headed for re-election over Alison Lundergan Grimes.聽In New Hampshire, there are at least some indications that聽Scott Brown is closing the gap with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, as is聽Thom Tillis in North Carolina聽in his race against Sen. Kay Hagan. Finally, Joni Ernst has led in pretty much every poll in Iowa this month and hasa 2.5 point lead over Bruce Braley聽and the Republican candidates in聽Arkansas聽and聽Louisiana聽also seem to be on track for victory in November.

Now, all of these races may not pan out for the GOP, but enough of them seem to be leaning in the Republican direction that, given the minimal amount of time left and the factors that are influencing the race, it seems a fair guess to say that most of them will, unless something drastic changes in the next two weeks. One of those factors that is clearly influencing the race is the president鈥檚 job approval rating, which remains聽quite low overall聽and on specific issues such as the聽economy聽and聽foreign policy.聽As the linked article notes, the drop in the president鈥檚 job approval applies regardless of gender, and it appears to be impacting the Senate races that will decide who controls the upper house of Congress. No doubt, with the campaign in crunch mode for the next 13 days, we will see Democrats try to turn the tide on the women鈥檚 vote in the close races noted above. Mark Udall鈥檚 focus on abortion, which has also been popping up in races in North Carolina, Louisiana, and Arkansas, is quite obviously aimed at both changing the minds of female voters who may be leaning toward the Republican candidate and mobilizing them to get out and vote. Whether that effort succeeds or fails may end up being the deciding factor in the battle for the Senate.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/.