海角大神

A new Gallup poll seems to indicate that聽a significant number of Americans don鈥檛 care very much about who controls Congress:

As this survey shows, these numbers generally have not changed much in the past several election cycles, although there has been a significant drop among Republican voters from the levels they were at in 2010:

The fact that Republican voters are saying that they don鈥檛 care nearly as much as they did in 2010 about who ends up controlling Congress is, obviously, the most interesting in the poll. To some extent, I suppose, you could say that it is due to the fact that the GOP already has control of the House and is聽in no danger at all of losing that chamber this year.聽Beyond that, though, I鈥檇 speculate that after 2010, Republican voters, which include much more than just the tea party base that has been the most vocal over the past four years, discovered that the enthusiasm of 2010 was somewhat misplaced. Notwithstanding the GOP鈥檚 huge victory that year, the party has largely failed to get its agenda adopted on a national level, thanks to the fact that there鈥檚 a Democrat in the White House and that Democrats still control the Senate. Winning the Senate in November would give the GOP some additional leverage over legislation, but in the end their ability to accomplish much of anything will be limited by the fact that there is a Democrat in the White House at least until 2017, which means that there will have to be compromises made and deals struck in order to accomplish even the most basic tasks that Congress is responsible for, such as budgeting.

This means, of course, that 2016 is likely to be another closely fought ideological battle inside the GOP among Republicans on both sides of the 鈥渆stablishment v. tea party鈥� divide for the Republican nomination. Indeed, given the fact that the GOP has lost four out of the last six presidential elections, and lost the popular vote in five out of the last six, it鈥檚 likely that all parties of interest in the GOP are going to be highly interested in trying to win the White House back after eight years in the wilderness. As far as 2014 goes, though, Republicans don鈥檛 seem to be any more concerned about who controls Congress, and that suggests that while we鈥檙e likely to see Republican gains this year they will probably fall short of the wave we saw in 2010.

As for Americans as a whole, it鈥檚 not all that hard to understand why the partisan battle over congressional control doesn鈥檛 grab the attention of the general public very much. Poll after poll over the past several years has shown that Congress has some of the lowest job approval numbers in its history. Going back to the Bush Administration, the institution has excelled at little more than partisan vitriol and gridlock, and that鈥檚 been with both parties controlling one or both chambers. It鈥檚 no surprise that they鈥檇 believe that it really doesn鈥檛 matter whose in charge in the current political climate, and, in at least some sense, they鈥檙e absolutely right.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/