海角大神

After the public relations disaster of the rollout of the Affordable Care Act last October, a situation that wasn鈥檛 fully resolved until sometime in December, which was quickly followed by the numerous reports of people who were losing health insurance coverage that they had had for years, seeing their premiums skyrocket, and otherwise running into difficulties even signing up for insurance through the state or federal exchanges. Given all this news, there were many on the right who believed that, once again, Obamacare would be an issue that they could exploit in the upcoming midterms while many Democratic candidates, especially those vulnerable Democratic senators in red states, shied away from the issue or sought to distance themselves from the president鈥檚 health-care plan. As the election year has gone on, though,聽it has become apparent that the president鈥檚 health-care law is not going to be the issue that either side thought it would be for voters,聽and that鈥檚 causing both of them to change their emphasis:

To no small degree, the fact that the PPACA has faded as a campaign issue is likely due to the fact that, while the law鈥檚 initial rollout and inaugural signup period were indeed disastrous, there has been very little bad news, in fact very little news at all, about the law since open enrollment ended in March. There have been reports here and there about the possibility of increased premiums in the future, of course, and as the聽闯辞耻谤苍补濒听notes in the linked article, it鈥檚 possible that the law may reenter the news in October, when open enrollment begins again and we start dealing with the issue of employers trying to sign up for approved plans. For the most part, though, the PPACA has largely faded from public attention, while other issues have arisen in the news. Additionally, the administration has done a fairly decent job of highlighting what they believe the positive aspects of the law are, including what seems to be small reductions in both the number of uninsured and signs that health-care costs might be going down, although it鈥檚 far too early to say with any certainty whether either of these will be lasting phenomena. Regardless of whether that鈥檚 the case or not, though, there is as much 鈥済ood鈥� news about the PPACA out there for Democrats to point to as there is 鈥渂ad鈥� news for Republicans to point to so, in some sense, it ends up becoming a wash and neither party can really benefit from the issue.

More important than how well the law is doing right now, though, is the simple fact that it doesn鈥檛 appear to be a very high priority for the voters that are likely to decide the close elections this year. Clearly, it鈥檚 an issue that will motivate base issues in both party, especially in the GOP, to come to the polls, but when you look at polling around the country it becomes clear rather quickly that voters don鈥檛 consider the health care law to be a high priority. This isn鈥檛 entirely surprising. Even back in 2010, when Republicans rode a tea party wave to victory,聽exit polling聽indicated that health care was seen as the most important issue by just 18% of voters. Additionally, voters that year were nearly equally divided on whether the PPACA should be repealed (48%) or whether it should be expanded or left as it is (47%). 聽As it has been in past elections,聽the most important issue for voters that year was the economy, and that鈥檚 likely to be true this year as well. To be sure,聽polling still shows that the law is unpopular, but as was the case in 2010 and 2012, there鈥檚 simply no evidence that it is going to play a significant role in voters choices at the polls this year.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/