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The Democratic nominee in Kansas has dropped out of the race for United States Senate, and there are several analysts who believe that this may actually end up helping Democrats:

Ordinarily, of course, the prospect of a Democratic nominee dropping out of a race with less than eight weeks left before Election Day would seem to be good news for a Republican like Roberts, who seemed as though he was heading for an easy victory after holding off a challenge from Tea Party-backed candidate Milton Wolf last month. These are not ordinary times in Kansas, though, In addition to the presence of what seems like a strong independent candidate on the ballot in the Senate race, we are also seeing the Republican Party in the very Republican Sunflower State being ripped apart. To some degree, this is happening because of the same establishment v. Tea Party battles that we鈥檝e seen elsewhere in the country, and which played out in the Roberts v. Wolf GOP primary campaign. In addition to that, however, the rather ineffective tenure of Republican Gov. Sam Brownback has caused a rift in the party, as well as damaging the reputation of the party nationwide. Governor Brownback鈥檚 tenure has been marked more notably by deep tax cuts that have left the state with serious budget problems, and that has led many Republicans to endorse his Democratic opponent and others to just stay out of the race completely. Indeed, at the moment, it looks as though Brownback is going to lose his reelection bid. To some degree at least, it would seem as though Orman, in his independent bid for the Senate, has capitalized on the frustration with the state Republican Party, and has even managed to snag endorsements from state and local party officials.

As the polling has shown Orman drawing a significant share of the vote in the weeks since the GOP primary, there have been reports that state Democratic leaders were considering the possibility of abandoning their own nominee and backing the independent candidate on the theory that he may have a better chance of picking up what otherwise would be a safe Republican seat. This wouldn鈥檛 be an unprecedented move since it is essentially what the party did two years ago in Maine when national Democrats were openly backing independent Angus King over the nominee of the Maine Democratic Party, and state party officials essentially sat out the race. In this case, while Taylor has been slightly ahead of Orman in the polls, the assessment has apparently been that the independent candidate would have a better chance of winning in November given the fact that Kansas hasn鈥檛 sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s and Orman鈥檚 campaign today has been drawing support almost equally from Democrats and disaffected Republicans. With Taylor out and Orman the sole significant opponent to Roberts in the race, the logic seems to be that the combination of the dissatisfaction with the GOP that Brownback seems to have helped created with Orman鈥檚 populist appeal would be enough to deny the GOP a win in a state that nobody was expecting.

There is one crucial element to this entire plan, of course. So far at least, Orman has not indicated which party he would caucus with if he managed to get elected to the Senate. The closest he鈥檚 come are comments where he has said that he doesn鈥檛 think that he could vote for either Harry Reid or Mitch McConnell as Senate majority leader, instead suggesting that he鈥檇 prefer to see someone like North Dakota Democrat Kristi Noem or Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski in that position. Since that isn鈥檛 going to happen, though, one suspects that reporters will press Orman to be clearer on what his intentions might be should he win the election. In that regard, it would likely be wise for him to follow the lead of Angus King, who said two years ago when he was faced with the same questions that he would base his decision on which party to caucus with on what was best for his constituents. That鈥檚 not exactly a complete answer, but it leaves the candidate with enough wiggle room to avoid having to answer the question over and over again on the campaign trail.

Prior to yesterday鈥檚 withdrawal, Roberts was leading the Senate race, but by a far smaller margin than you might have expected from a long-term incumbent such as himself. The PollTracker聽average, for example, has Roberts at 35.3%, Taylor at 29.7%, and Orman at 21%. A fourth candidate, Libertarian Party nominee Randall Batson is averaging 3.7%. With Taylor now out of the race, we鈥檒l have to wait at least a week or more to see the first polling of a Roberts-Orman matchup, but one suspects that it will be Orman that will see the biggest jump in the polls. Obviously, if you add the numbers for Taylor and Orman together, that would suggest that Orman could end up being in the lead. While this may end up being the case, what is unclear at the moment is how many of the Republicans who may have been backing Orman will stick with him now that we鈥檝e got a two-man race against the Republican nominee. At the very least, this is going to be an interesting one to watch and, if Kansas becomes a seat that the GOP has to worry about defending, then it is going to have a huge impact on the race for the Senate as a whole.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/