海角大神

Unlike pretty much every other polling analyst out there 鈥� ranging from Nate Silver to聽The New York Times鈥檚 Upworthy to more traditional analysts, like Larry Sabato, Charles Cook, and Stuart Rothenberg 鈥� Sam Wang believes that the Democrats are likely to hold on to the Senate this year, indeed he currently gives them a 72 percent chance of holding on to the Senate.聽While this is certainly a contrarian point of view at the moment, it鈥檚 worth noting that Mr. Wang did accurately predict the outcome of every Senate election in 2012 and, while he hasn鈥檛 gotten the same press that people like Nate Silver have, his conclusions are at least worth paying attention to as we head into the final six weeks of the midterms.

A Princeton University professor specializing in biophysics and neuroscience, Wang has also branched out into politics, particularly in developing a 2004 Meta-Analysis of campaign contributions that acts as a useful tool in tracking races.

Here are a few of the reasons why Wang thinks many of the analysts are underestimating the Democrats this year:

Some of what Wang talks about here is similar to the points I raised in my recent post on the lack of evidence for a Republican wave in 2014. If you look at the polling right now, there is simply no evidence for the kind of strongly pro-Republican electoral movement that we would expect to see if November is, in fact, going to result in a Republican take over of the Senate. One criticism of that point, of course, is the fact that we are still looking at pre-Labor Day polls and that, traditionally at least, the 鈥渞eal campaign鈥� doesn鈥檛 start until early September, when voters have returned from summer vacation. While this is true to some extent, it鈥檚 a mistake to discount pre-Labor Day polling or to argue that the situation on the ground, as we begin the final six-week sprint, doesn鈥檛 matter in trying to figure out how the campaign is going to unfold. Four years ago, for example, Republicans had a 10 point lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot, suggesting huge Republican gains in the fall. Today, the RealClearPolitics average has the Democrats with a 1.5 point lead in the Generic Ballot.聽At this point four years ago, both Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato were noting signs of a growing Republican wave in 2010. This year, there鈥檚 no real talk of a wave, and Sabato is noting that 2014 is looking at this point like it is going to be quite different from what we saw in 2006, 2008, and 2010 in the Senate.聽By early September 2010, there were signs that Democrats were abandoning races that it was clear they could not win. This time, there鈥檚 no evidence of that, and, given how close the polls are in the states where the battle for control of the Senate is likely to be decided, it鈥檚 unlikely that will happen. In short, while there鈥檚 still a lot of time left between now and Election Day, the fact that the battle for the Senate is as close as it is suggests strongly that this is how things will remain for the rest of the election. In that kind of environment, it鈥檚 not beyond credulity to suggest that Democrats are likely to hold on to the Senate.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/.