海角大神

A new study confirms something that we鈥檝e known for quite some time, namely that Republicans have huge problems with female voters and it doesn鈥檛 seem like they鈥檙e doing much of anything to solve them:

None of this is new, of course. The so-called 鈥済ender gap鈥� has been a fact of American political life for decades now and has played a large role in deciding everything from the election of Bill Clinton in 1992 to Terry McAuliffe鈥檚 narrower than expected victory over Ken Cuccinelli in the 2013 Virginia governor鈥檚 race. During the 2012 presidential election, we saw it play a role in the battle for control of the Senate, thanks in no small part to exceedingly stupid comments by people like Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock in their effort to justify what seems to any normal person like the heartless position that even a woman who has been raped should be denied the right to an abortion. We鈥檝e seen it as Democrats have capitalized on the efforts by Republican-controlled state legislatures to even further restrict the right to abortion and to push personhood amendments that would have the effect of banning some forms of contraception and, potentially, IVF procedures as well. More recently, of course, the right鈥檚 reaction to the Affordable Care Act's contraceptive mandate has helped to further alienate it from female voters.

As far as solutions go, what the study proposes is pretty straightforward:

On paper, I suppose, it sounds good. Certainly, the fact that polling indicates that economic issues remain of primary concern to female voters, notwithstanding the fact that the GOP鈥檚 long association with extremist social conservatives would seem to indicate that concentrating on so-called 鈥減ocketbook鈥� issues would be the smart way for the GOP to deal with its problems with female voters. It doesn鈥檛 mean that we鈥檒l see a day any time soon when women start flocking to the GOP in large numbers, of course, but if it helps to cut down the so-called 鈥済ender gap,鈥� then it would make a difference on the margins that could tip the balance in an election. This would be especially true, it seems, in the so-called 鈥減urple鈥� states and among suburban female voters in areas like Northern Virginia. It鈥檚 also worth noting that the 鈥済ender gap鈥� almost completely disappears if you look at the voting patterns of married men and married women, which means that the real problem that the Republican Party has isn鈥檛 among female voters聽per se so much as it is with single female voters. Given that this is a growing part of the population, and that these women are likely to carry their voting attitudes over into their married lives when that time comes, of course, this doesn鈥檛 mean the problem isn鈥檛 serious. However, it isn鈥檛 insurmountable either.

The problem that the Republican Party has in this regard, of course, is two-fold. First of all, it will be next to impossible for the party to tone down the social conservative rhetoric that this survey and others indicates are so off-putting to female voters for the simple fact that social conservatives are such a substantial part of the GOP and among the most activist members of the party鈥檚 base. Not only does this mean that the party cannot afford to put them off by taking positions on issues like abortion and marriage equality that they are opposed to, but it also means that they can鈥檛 afford to ignore them in the manner that the survey鈥檚 recommendations suggest. The best example of that can be found in the recommendation a few years back from former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) that the GOP needed to declare a 鈥渢ruce鈥� a social issues and concentrate on economic issues, especially for the then-upcoming 2012 elections. The reaction to Daniels鈥� comments from activist social conservatives was overwhelmingly negative. Anti-abortion groups and prominent Republican social conservatives attacked him for what they perceived as an abandonment of principles. Others called it聽鈥渁n affront to the millions of conservatives who believe that social issues such as abortion and traditional marriage are non-negotiable.鈥澛燨bviously, if the GOP tried to do the same thing again, we鈥檇 see a similar reaction.

The party鈥檚 second problem, though, is one that the survey recognizes and one that is not easily fixed. Namely, it鈥檚 the simple fact that Republicans seem to not be able to understand how to communicate with female voters, and that鈥檚 a problem that even seems to extend to female Republican politicians. Until they fix that, no amount of change is going to amount to much of anything.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/.