海角大神

As Congress dithers on passing a bill to deal with the border crisis and the House makes exceedingly clear that it has no intention of acting on immigration of any kind before the midterm elections at least, and possibly not any time before the president is out of office,聽Talking Points Memo鈥檚聽Erica Werner聽notes that the White House is contemplating broad executive action on the issue of immigration that will likely set up another confrontation with the Republicans in Congress:

Without knowing exactly what it is that the president might do here, it鈥檚 hard to evaluate whether or not the actions in question are something that is properly within his authority as president or whether they are an effort to improperly go around Congress to do something that ought to be the province of the legislature. As a general principle, of course, the president as chief law enforcement officer has some broad degree of discretion in the enforcement of laws such as the immigration laws. He has the authority, for example, to grant the kinds of administrative relief that he did last year for some children of illegal immigrants who were brought to the United States when they were younger by their parents. It鈥檚 worth noting, though, that the relief that was granted in that case is temporary and the 鈥渁mnesty,鈥� for lack of a better word at the moment, that was granted to this class of people under the Deferred Action For Childhood Arrivals program only lasts for two years and would expire if not renewed. While the deferrals will obviously be renewed as long as President Obama is in office, there is no guarantee that would be a permanent feature of the program. Moreover, the entire program could be ended by congressional action, although any such bill passed by Congress would have to be signed into law by the president. If the president tries to enact some kind of more permanent reform via executive action, it could rest on far more dubious legal grounds, although Politico鈥檚 Josh Gerstein notes that聽there may not be much that Congress could do about it:

Leaving aside the legal issues, though, it鈥檚 pretty easy to figure out what the political consequences of the kind of executive action being talked about right now would be. Just as has happened in response to the president鈥檚 actions with DACA and the various actions that the president has taken to extend deadlines or provide exemptions under the Affordable Care Act, it would lead to a profoundly negative reaction from the Republicans in Congress and from conservatives nationwide. Obviously, those parts of the GOP that are vehemently opposed to immigration reform and the idea of granting 鈥渁mnesty鈥� to people who are here illegally will be upset by these actions, as will those who have attacked the president over alleged executive branch overreach in recent years. If by chance the president takes this action prior to the midterm elections, which seems unlikely, it will become a political issue that the GOP will use in an effort to defeat incumbent Democratic senators both in red states and in states such as Michigan, Oregon, and Iowa where many people have discounted the probability of Republican victory. If the action is taken after the election, then it is likely to lead to increased pressure on House leadership to 鈥渄o something鈥� about the president鈥檚 alleged abuses of power.

As I noted Tuesday, while Republican leaders continue to dismiss the idea of impeaching the president, it remains to be seen whether they would be able to resist pressure from their base to go down this road if the political circumstances forced them into that position. If nothing else, a series of executive orders from the president that appear to be designed to enact immigration reform without congressional action would seem to be perfectly suited to being the impetus for the series of events that could force the leadership鈥檚 hand on impeachment. At that point, the question would become whether or not House Speaker Boehner, House majority whip Kevin McCarthy, Senate majority leader McConnell and the rest have the will and fortitude to resist the calls of the populist wing of their party as we head into what is likely to be the most vehemently partisan presidential election since, well, the last one.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/.