海角大神

A new poll suggests that聽female voters are not very interested in supporting politicians who agree with the聽Hobby Lobby聽decision:

This isn鈥檛 particularly surprising, of course. Republicans have long had issues with female voters, and in recent elections the gender gap has become something of a decisive factor. Here in Virginia, for example, support from both married and single female voters in the suburban communities in Northern Virginia was a large part of the reason that Terry McAuliffe was able to pull off a win against Ken Cuccinelli, and in that election women were largely motivated by Cuccinelli鈥檚 record on issues ranging from abortion rights to divorce and contraceptive coverage. The phenomenon is also quite apparent on the national level, as more recent polling has indicated. Republicans do recognize these problems, of course, but even a recent meeting on the issue that was headlined by some of the most prominent Republican women in Congress makes it clear that the GOP still doesn鈥檛 know how to talk to women.

The interesting question is whether or not this apparent gender split on the聽Hobby Lobby聽case will have an impact on any of the elections that will decide the balance of power in the Senate in November. As I have noted in my discussions of the Supreme Court decisions in that case, the fact that the decision is based entirely on an interpretation of a statute rather than the First Amendment means that, at least in theory, Congress could change the law to deal with the issues that the Court decided. Such a bill has been introduced in the Senate but, of course, it will go nowhere in that body and would have no chance in the House of Representatives. It could, however, serve as a tool for Democrats to get women to the polls in November in states like North Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, and Georgia where they could make a difference between defeat and victory. At the very least, I鈥檇 expect that we鈥檒l see Democrats in those states, as well as outside groups, target female voters in those states with messages that center on the聽Hobby Lobby decision and the general issues surrounding contraceptives and other social issues. Even if it only ends up being effective at the margins, it could be something that ends up being the difference between whether a Democrats or a Republican wins a particular race in those states, and that could be all that鈥檚 needed to decide who controls the Senate.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/.