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It looks like Paul Ryan is running for the post of Mr. Republican. Whether he hopes that involves winning the party鈥檚 presidential nomination 鈥� and when 鈥� is less clear. But he鈥檚 probably aiming at 2020, not 2016.

Those are our takeaways from Monday鈥檚 new chatter about the political future of the wunderkind speaker of the House, in any case.

The hallway talk we鈥檙e referring to is the result of a lengthy piece in Sunday鈥檚 New York Times that dubs Speaker Ryan the GOP鈥檚 鈥渕irage candidate.鈥� It doesn鈥檛 directly say that the Wisconsin member of Congress is positioning himself as a shiny savior for a deadlocked 2016 Republican National Convention. But it does imply that he鈥檚 aiming to market himself as the face of the party if Donald Trump or even Ted Cruz emerges as the Republican presidential nominee.

Ryan is drawing up a policy agenda that he鈥檒l roll out prior to the convention as a sort of shadow party platform, according to the Times. That will allegedly include a health plan to replace Obamacare and a new antipoverty program.

As the chairman of the convention he鈥檒l get a lot of airtime 鈥� and face time with delegates. If Trump emerges victorious he鈥檒l provide alternative party leadership for elected officials looking to hold onto their seats.

鈥淢r. Ryan is creating a personality and policy alternative to run alongside the presidential effort 鈥� one that provides a foundation to rebuild if Republicans splinter and lose in the fall,鈥� writes the Times鈥檚 Jennifer Steinhauer.

The key word there may be 鈥渓ose.鈥� Ryan, like many Republican lawmakers with ties to the donors, lobbyists and thinkfluencers who constitute the party elite, may well believe that 2016 is fast slipping away. If Mr. Trump wins the nomination, he鈥檒l get clobbered. If he loses it, Ted Cruz 鈥� or whoever else inherits the prize 鈥� will get clobbered as well, because Trump will split the party. Just imagine Trump鈥檚 call-ins to "Fox & Friends" and the talk about 鈥渟tealing.鈥�

That鈥檚 why we discount the talk about Ryan stepping in as the party鈥檚 savior at a contested convention in Cleveland. First, Ryan knows the prize might be damaged. Second, that鈥檚 unrealistic 鈥� not just Trump, but Senator Cruz and even Ohio Gov. John Kasich would fight hard to keep someone who never ran in the primaries from being entered into nomination.

Third, that鈥檚 not Ryan鈥檚 plan anyway. He鈥檚 got a different date in mind. We agree with Paul Waldman at The Week: Everything Ryan is doing adds up to someone who has already decided to run in 2020 in the wake of an epic Trump disaster.

鈥淩yan is running for president. Just not this year,鈥� writes Waldman.

That鈥檚 why Ryan just traveled to Israel for a high-profile visit to build his foreign policy credentials, even as he can鈥檛 get his own budget passed in the House at home. (The same conservatives that made John Boehner鈥檚 life a living heck are blocking the Ryan-promoted budget because they think it spends too much.)

That鈥檚 why he鈥檚 promoting a soon-to-arrive Obamacare replacement plan. Of course, he鈥檚 been promising that for years, and it hasn鈥檛 happened yet. Maybe this time is the charm.

Or maybe we鈥檙e wrong, and Ryan is set to gavel in the convention, watch chaos unfold, and then deftly wrest the prize from Trump鈥檚 commodious hands. We鈥檝e got a lobbyist friend who thinks we鈥檙e naive to believe Ryan has little chance this time around.

Hmm. A consummate insider who believes in immigration reform of some type and free trade pacts, winning the party nomination in a year when a majority of GOP voters have backed anti-immigration outsiders? Nope. Still don鈥檛 see it happening.