Could Paul Ryan be the dark horse GOP presidential nominee?
That's the talk in Washington this week: Paul Ryan rides in to win a brokered convention. It kind of makes sense, but only if you don't analyze it too closely.聽
That's the talk in Washington this week: Paul Ryan rides in to win a brokered convention. It kind of makes sense, but only if you don't analyze it too closely.聽
Is House Speaker Paul Ryan going to emerge from a contested GOP convention as the party鈥檚 nominee for president?
That鈥檚 the prediction made by insider Republican sources in Politico on Monday. One calculates that there鈥檚 a 60 percent chance of a convention deadlock, and a 90 percent chance that delegates will then turn to Mr. Ryan 鈥� not Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, or Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Ryan is more ambitious than he lets on and realizes that denying he wants the nomination is the only way to get it, in this view.
鈥淚f he was seen to be angling for it, he鈥檇 be stained and disqualified by the current mess,鈥� writes Politico鈥檚 star tipsheet author Mike Allen.
That鈥檚 why he keeps saying he鈥檚 not seeking the office. Ryan did that again on Monday, telling Hugh Hewitt in an interview that 鈥淚鈥檓 not running for president period, end of story.鈥�
Hmmm. Is this plan so crazy it just might work? If it really is a plan.
After all, Ryan is the one guy who appears able to unite Republicans. He鈥檚 acceptable to the establishment types and the hard-core conservatives. He鈥檚 already been vetted due to his spot on Mitt Romney鈥檚 2012 ticket.
Plus, he鈥檚 done the deny-then-accept thing before. After Speaker John Boehner quit, Ryan 鈥� then chairman of the Ways and Means Committee 鈥� said he was happy where he was. He said he did not want the hassles and workload of being speaker.
He鈥檚 young. He鈥檚 rested. He鈥檚 (maybe) ready. To those members of the party elite who are desperately searching for a way to stop Trump, it all seems to make sense.
Except, we tend to take Ryan at his word on this one. While the idea kind of makes sense if you squint and look at it quickly, further perusal with open eyes lessens its appeal.
For one thing, it would rip the party asunder. Trump supporters would be outraged. So would Cruz supporters. In a contested convention, would delegates really bypass the two top vote-getters of primary season in favor of someone who didn鈥檛 even run?
After all, many GOP voters appear to be angry with their own party establishment, which they feel ignores them. A Ryan nomination might prove their point.
鈥淭his Paul Ryan boomlet is cray-cray. 65% of Rs have voted for 2 cands 鈥� Trump & Cruz 鈥� who rail agsnt establishment &DC. Not happening,鈥� tweeted Amy Walter, national editor of the Cook Political Report, on Monday.
Also, if Ryan really is an ambitious, canny politician, he shouldn鈥檛 want the nomination under such contested circumstances. Trump could well go third party, and even if he doesn鈥檛, many of his voters would likely stay home in disgust. It seems like a good way for the Republican candidate, whoever they are, to lose.
Staying speaker is the better choice. You鈥檝e got a national platform and a good chance to influence the nation鈥檚 fiscal direction.
Unless nominee Trump craters so badly that the GOP loses the House and you鈥檙e not Speaker anymore. Hmmm....