海角大神

The Republican candidate was certain his party鈥檚 national convention would nominate him for president. So were his many committed and vociferous supporters. Hadn鈥檛 he won the most delegate votes? Wasn鈥檛 he the most famous of all the contenders for the political crown?

But Republican insiders were worried about the candidate鈥檚 electability. His positions on major issues 鈥� including race and immigration 鈥� were out of step with major swing states. Down-ballot candidates didn鈥檛 want to lose due to a weak ticket leader.

The result was a hotly contested convention. On the first two ballots, no candidate received a majority of delegate votes. Then on the third, the contest dramatically ended, as support shifted to a dark horse candidate 鈥� someone who studied and prepared for just such a convention struggle.

Abraham Lincoln.

Yes, the Republican Convention of 1860 isn鈥檛 an exact analogy for the present day. Defeated front-runner William Seward was no Donald Trump. He was a sitting senator from New York and a giant of the then-young party. His views on race and immigration were too radical for some Republicans.

But the anecdote shows that brokered, or contested, or divided conventions have a long and colorful history in American politics. They鈥檝e occurred periodically into the modern era. Both Democratic and Republican conventions were last truly contested in 1952.

Nor have they resulted in certain defeat due to a split party. Lincoln 鈥� well, no more need be said. And in 1952 Gen. Dwight Eisenhower won the presidency after defeating conservative favorite Sen. Robert Taft of Ohio at a bitter GOP Chicago convention.

鈥淪ix of the GOP鈥檚 ten brokered conventions have produced a nominee who went on to become president, with five of them winning the popular vote,鈥� writes Trey Mayfield at the conservative website The Federalist.

The Republican National Convention of 2016 in Cleveland may not be a new chapter in this rich history. Donald Trump may well win the 1,237 delegates needed for nomination before primary season.

To do so he will need to maintain his voter support at his current percentage, and win key states, particularly California. California awards 172 Republican delegates and could well put Trump over the top. It votes on June 7 鈥� primary season鈥檚 last day.

But it is also quite possible Trump will fall short. (Neither Ted Cruz nor John Kasich have a realistic path to winning a delegate majority outright.) In that case the nomination fight would go into overtime, all the way to the convention.

Trump has made clear he believes he should win the nomination if he enters the convention with a plurality of delegates and a big lead over his rivals in numbers of votes and states won. Anything else would constitute 鈥渄isenfranchising鈥� his voters, he says.

If the party tried to block him 鈥測ou鈥檇 have riots鈥�, Trump said during a CNN interview March 16.

But anti-Trump forces say that a contested convention should be just that 鈥� contested. Since 1860 the party has required a majority of delegates to win the convention. If no nominee has a majority of delegates, delegates quickly become free agents, meaning they can vote for whichever candidate they please, not just the one that won their state.

Rules are rules in this case.

鈥淚f Trump doesn鈥檛 get the delegates and doesn鈥檛 win at the convention no one would be TAKING anything from him. That would be 鈥榣osing鈥�,鈥� tweeted Politico chief economic correspondent Ben White on March 16.

Let鈥檚 look back at 1952 to see how this worked. Back then Dwight Eisenhower was a political neophyte. Like Trump, he鈥檇 never been elected to political office. Unlike Trump, he had contributed greatly to the winning of World War II.

Ike didn鈥檛 know much about how the GOP鈥檚 rules worked. At the Chicago convention, his advisors were shocked to discover that he had no idea presidential candidates got to pick their running mates. He thought the delegates chose vice presidential nominees.

He figured things out pretty quickly. Eisenhower entered the convention in a close race with Senator Taft, a respected party elder making his third try for the office once held by his father, William Howard Taft. At the end of the first ballot, Ike led by 595 votes to 500. He needed only nine votes to reach 604, and a majority.

But the first ballot had a second act. Minnesota had voted for a favorite son candidate, former Gov. Harold Stassen. (Favorite sons were essentially placeholders, popular local or regional figures expected to eventually broker their state鈥檚 votes.) Before voting was closed, Stassen stepped up and changed Minnesota鈥檚 votes to 鈥淓isenhower.鈥� In that moment, Ike won.

He knew that despite this victory the convention remained deeply divided and that he needed to close that breach and unite the party if the Republicans were to have any chance of ending the Democrats鈥� 20-year hold on the White House.

鈥淭o that end, General Eisenhower鈥檚 first act, after he knew he had won, was to call on Senator Taft to ask 鈥� and receive 鈥� from him assurances that the Ohioan would campaign actively for the Eisenhower-Nixon ticket,鈥� wrote The New York Times in its convention dispatch.

Historically, the role of US political conventions has been to choose the presidential contender who best represents the party.

In cases where there is a clear majority winner, that鈥檚 easy 鈥� they ratify the voters鈥� choice. But if the vote is split among a number of contenders the question of who has the most delegates becomes subordinate to the 鈥渂est represents鈥� question, writes The Federalist鈥檚 Mayfield.

The Republican Party has had 10 conventions where no candidate had a majority of delegates prior to the first ballot. In seven of those, the candidate who entered the convention with a plurality, or the most delegates, lost.

Gambling magnate Trump thus might face long odds in a contested convention, historically speaking.

Of course, Trump and his advisers may not be much worried. If he鈥檚 demonstrated anything this primary season it is that he is masterful at rousing his supporters. And history, he might point out, is yesterday, by definition. A very long time ago. Who cares about the convention of 1952, much less that of 1860?

The nation鈥檚 cultural and political context is much different today. Post-Watergate reforms have opened up the whole nominee-choosing process. It鈥檚 much more about the people鈥檚 choice, and less about backroom deals.

The vast majority of US elections are decided by the simple question of who got the most votes. No fancy ranked-choice voting here, where voters list a number of candidates in order of preference. That鈥檚 for loser countries like Australia. Sad!

That鈥檚 how Trump might put it, anyway. US voters just aren鈥檛 used to contested conventions anymore and might see them as odd and undemocratic.

鈥淧erhaps the most powerful force working against the stop-Trump movement is the widely-accepted norm of democratic legitimacy awarded to the leading candidate in an electoral competition. Even the recipient of a mere plurality can claim to be the people鈥檚 choice, at least in comparison to any other single individual, and Trump, as a near-certainty to place first in the delegate count, will surely do so with no little vehemence,鈥� writes Boston College political scientist David A. Hopkins on his "Honest Graft" blog.