Five ways the IRS scandal will change Washington
Whatever comes of the investigations into the IRS's targeting of conservative groups, the scandal promises to have broad repercussions in Washington, potentially through the 2014 midterms.
Whatever comes of the investigations into the IRS's targeting of conservative groups, the scandal promises to have broad repercussions in Washington, potentially through the 2014 midterms.
Toss a pebble into a lake and the ripples spread far and wide. Lob a scandal, in which the anti-tax tea party is under attack by its nemesis, the Internal Revenue Service, into the shark-infested waters of Washington, and well, the political ramifications are huge.
Whatever comes of the investigations into the IRS鈥檚 inappropriate targeting of conservative groups in the 2012 election cycle, this much appears certain: the scandal will unite conservatives, invigorate the tea party, and potentially affect the 2014 midterm elections.
Here are five ways the IRS scandal will change Washington:
1) Invigorate the tea party and its small-government movement
For thousands of tea party members across the nation, it鈥檚 an 鈥淚 told you so鈥� moment. You have to admit the scandal is perfectly scripted. Big government, and taxes in particular, are the movement鈥檚 central grievance. Heck, the group even takes its name from the Boston Tea Party, the iconic historical protest against unfair taxation.
How perfect, then, that the latest scandal to hit Washington confirms the tea party鈥檚 anti-big government, anti-tax, anti-IRS crusade. What鈥檚 more, it confirms countless complaints by tea party groups and allegations by right-leaning websites like The Blaze that the IRS was going after conservative groups.
In Washington, the tea party had been losing its luster almost ever since the shining glory of the 2010 midterms. The IRS scandal could be the rallying cry of a reinvigorated movement.
2) Unite conservatives
The GOP鈥檚 2012 election square dance 鈥� two steps to the right in the primary, one step to the left in the general election 鈥� exposed a rift between the Republican Party and its conservative base, one that鈥檚 only widened as the party is forced to reconsider issues like gay marriage and immigration.
Yet, as every tactician knows, nothing unites like a common enemy. As such, the IRS scandal unleashed a golden opportunity for conservatives.
鈥淭he accusations of IRS abuse are sure to fuel an effort that appears to be uniting dispirited Republicans and their conservative political base: investigating Mr. Obama and his administration,鈥� The New York Times reported Monday. 鈥淩epublicans are pushing a portrayal of an administration overreaching its authority and punishing its enemies.鈥�
Enemies that are sure to leverage the situation to their advantage.
3) Impact midterm elections
Yes, believe it or not, it鈥檚 true. If conservatives can sustain, even strengthen, that unity, and launch a big-government attack on Democrats, the IRS scandal could influence the 2014 midterm elections.
In a recent column, political polling guru Nate Silver predicts the IRS debacle 鈥渃ould have a substantial political impact,鈥� and has 鈥渢he potential to harm Democrats鈥� performance in next years鈥� midterm elections, partly by motivating a strong turnout from the Republican base.鈥�
He uses a five-point test to argue that the scandal 鈥渉as legs鈥�: it can be described in one sentence, cuts to the core of a candidate or party鈥檚 brand, and reinforces a negative perception about a candidate, among other points.
Expect reverberations in 2014.
4) Invigorate the tax code reform movement
For years advocacy groups and lawmakers from both sides of the aisle 鈥� from Democratic Sen. Max Baucus of Montana to libertarian Rep. Ron Paul of Texas to Republican Gov. Rick Perry of Texas 鈥� have advocated for tax reform. It鈥檚 an uphill, if not vertiginous, climb and a goal that has remained elusive for decades.
If they鈥檙e smart, lawmakers and tax advocacy groups will use the IRS scandal 鈥� and its revelations about tax code loopholes (recall that 501(c)(4)s are often used by political groups to avoid paying taxes and to hide donors) 鈥� to invigorate their cause.
A case in point: For the first time in more than 25 years, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Baucus wants to launch the first full-scale rewrite of the 5,600-page US tax code.
Ambitious? Yes. But given the current climate in Washington, the timing couldn鈥檛 be better.
5) Derail bipartisan cooperation
Alas, as if partisan bickering and congressional gridlock weren鈥檛 enough, the IRS fiasco throws another wrench into legislative wrangling on issues like gun control, immigration, and the debt ceiling debate.
President Obama鈥檚 chummy dinners and golf games with Republicans? All for naught, as Politico explains.
鈥淭he IRS developments couldn鈥檛 come at a worse time for the White House, which has spent months courting GOP support for everything from gun control to an overhaul of immigration laws,鈥� it reported. 鈥淚f the administration鈥檚 recent GOP charm offensive bought any goodwill, it seems to be on short supply now.鈥�
Or, as the Washington Post said, 鈥淲e aren鈥檛 likely to see Republicans and Democrats in Congress join hands and sing Kumbaya any time soon.鈥�