海角大神

The Monitor's "Senate elections 101" series looks at the specific issues that will be driving voters in each of the 10 tossup races.

The dominant theme of an unpredictable Colorado Senate race has been reproductive rights 鈥� an issue that was the focus of Sen. Mark Udall鈥檚 very first campaign ad back in April.

Senator Udall, the Democratic incumbent, has painted his Republican rival, Rep. Cory Gardner, as an extreme conservative who would roll back reproductive rights. Congressman Gardner has fought to moderate his positions, opposing a 鈥減ersonhood鈥� initiative on the ballot in Colorado this year 鈥� though he supported similar initiatives twice before 鈥� and writing an opinion article that calls for over-the-counter sale of contraceptives.

Udall鈥檚 focus on reproductive rights, almost to the exclusion of other issues, may have backfired, and while current polls give him an advantage among women, the gender gap isn't the size he likely needs to win the election.

鈥淭his is Udall鈥檚 gamble,鈥� says Seth Masket, a political scientist at the University of Denver. 鈥淭his is this nice wedge issue that is designed to peel off moderate-to-conservative women who nonetheless consider themselves pro-choice. It鈥檚 something where Democrats have had some success in Colorado, and he鈥檚 going all in on that strategy.鈥�

Udall had a slight edge for a while this summer, but recent polls have given that edge to Gardner. Most are still within the margin of error, and voter turnout and a good ground game 鈥� historically a strength for Democrats in the state 鈥� could play a big role in determining the outcome.

Perhaps surprisingly, almost no other issue has come into play in Colorado in a significant way. Issues that were expected to figure prominently 鈥撀爄mmigration, energy, and the Affordable Care Act 鈥� have largely been a nonentity. Most voters still list the economy as their top issue, but it鈥檚 not clear which candidate that鈥檚 benefiting.

鈥淭o the extent they think the economy is improving, they鈥檙e leaning more Democratic in their votes, but a fair number of voters are just not satisfied with the level of improvement,鈥� says Professor Masket.

As many other tossup states, this election may well come down largely to an issue outside of the candidates鈥� control: how voters feel about President Obama.

鈥淭he Democrats believed that the issue that would get them through this was reproductive rights, and they really poured money into it, probably too much,鈥� says Denver-based pollster Floyd Ciruli. 鈥淭he Republicans really have just one message: [Udall] votes 99 percent with the president.鈥�

Please read our other entries in this series:

• Louisiana is a referendum on Mary Landrieu
• Colorado could come down to women's issues
• Kentucky聽conflicted about Mitch McConnell
• Iowa聽split between two very different candidates
• Georgia could turn on a David Purdue gaffe
• North Carolina wary of Tillis's tea party revolution
• Arkansas considers ending its blue-state legacy
• Alaska's remotest places could be crucial
• New Hampshire shapes up as carpetbagger vs. rubber stamp聽
• The big Kansas issue Pat Roberts isn't talking about