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Will Thad Cochran, a six-term incumbent in the US Senate, be the next establishment Republican to lose his job to a tea-party insurgent?

That鈥檚 the burning question in Mississippi, the only state this election cycle where a tea party-backed candidate has a shot at taking out an incumbent senator in a Republican primary. The race has become a magnet for outside groups and money. It also presents a high-stakes test of tea party clout, as the movement fights claims that it is a waning force.

Republicans have seen this movie before. In 2012, long-serving Sen. Richard Lugar (R) of Indiana lost to a tea-party-backed candidate in the primary, who then lost to the Democrat in the general election.

Mississippi鈥檚 Republican establishment has rallied around Cochran to fend off state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R). At the center is the Barbour family. Henry Barbour, the state鈥檚 GOP national committeeman, co-founded a 鈥渟uper PAC鈥� to support Cochran with ads and counter Mr. McDaniel鈥檚 attacks. His brother, Austin Barbour, is a senior adviser to the Cochran campaign. Their uncle, former Gov. Haley Barbour, is wielding his considerable fundraising skills, both in Mississippi and in Washington, D.C.

In Senator McDaniel鈥檚 corner is the Mississippi tea party, with affiliated groups around the state that bring energy to the state senator鈥檚 ground game. From Washington, the conservative Club for Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund are backing McDaniel with TV ads, and FreedomWorks is helping Mississippi tea partyers with yard signs and door hangers. Turnout in primaries is typically low, and so motivating voters is key. 聽

鈥淢cDaniel supporters are fired up, and they鈥檙e working hard,鈥� says Henry Barbour, in an interview in his office in downtown Jackson. 鈥淐andidly, most of the Cochran voters are asleep. And that鈥檚 my biggest concern.鈥�

In February, a poll by the Mississippi Democratic Party showed McDaniel at 44 percent and Cochran at 43 percent. Now, two months before the June 3 primary, private polling shows Cochran ahead of McDaniel in the high single digits. A Rasmussen poll released March 31 showed that Cochran and McDaniel would each defeat the likely Democratic nominee, former Rep. Travis Childers, handily. (Cochran would win 48-31. McDaniel would win 47-35.)

But as the primary ramps up, many Mississippi voters still aren鈥檛 paying attention. And so the race is on to define the Republicans. The challenge for each is different. Cochran has been in Congress since McDaniel was a baby, first in the House for six years, then in the Senate for more than 35 years. His is a household name 鈥� one that appears on many public buildings around Mississippi.

During his decades in Washington, Cochran has made channeling federal funds to Mississippi a major focus, be it for hurricane Katrina relief, military bases, or farmers. If Republicans win back the Senate in November, Cochran would chair the Senate Appropriations Committee in 2015.

But apparently the second-longest-serving GOP senator in Washington hasn鈥檛 kept up much with internal Republican politics. He has said more than once that he doesn鈥檛 know much about the tea party 鈥� a sign that he鈥檚 not interested in their views, Mississippi tea party leaders say. 聽

Tea partyers are also concerned that if Cochran wins reelection, he won鈥檛 finish his term, allowing the governor to fill the seat with another establishment Republican.

The best way for Cochran to reassure Mississippians and defeat McDaniel, says Austin Barbour, is to get the senator back to Mississippi as much as possible.

鈥淲hat we need to do, and what we鈥檙e beginning to do, is make sure that when Senator Cochran is in the state, he goes and sees people,鈥� says Mr. Barbour, speaking in his office, one floor below his brother鈥檚. 鈥淗e needs to remind them of what he鈥檚 done and will continue to do. Unfortunately, he鈥檚 in D.C. a lot.鈥�

McDaniel 鈥� a six-year state senator, trial lawyer, and former nationally syndicated talk radio host 鈥� has mostly stuck to Mississippi, appearing at town halls, college campuses, and local Republican groups. His rhetoric centers on the tea party language of freedom, liberty, the Constitution, and Cochran鈥檚 less-than-hardline voting record.

He has also sat for numerous press interviews, at times inadvertently providing fodder for Cochran ads. In a comment to Politico in February, he appeared to hesitate over Katrina aid legislation in 2005, saying he 鈥減robably would have supported it,鈥� but didn鈥檛 know enough about it. An uproar ensued.

McDaniel says his comments were taken out of context. 鈥淎bsolutely, I鈥檓 for disaster relief for tragedies the magnitude of Katrina,鈥� he said, in an interview with the Monitor. 鈥淭hat is a core power of the central government.鈥�

On the larger question of why he would take on a long-serving senator guaranteed reelection in a solid red state, McDaniel said the people of Mississippi 鈥渦nderstand that the country is in trouble,鈥� and that Congress needs to be refreshed.

鈥淣ew courage, new blood, new ideas, it鈥檚 all very important and instrumental to a free people retaining control of their government,鈥� McDaniel said. 鈥淭hey understand that.鈥�

If elected, he says, his model would be tea party Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah, both in style and substance. Cochran is no firebrand, and his voting record puts him in the middle of the political pack. In National Journal鈥檚 rating, he鈥檚 the 34th聽most conservative senator. To hardline conservatives, that makes him a liberal.

When McDaniel announced he was running last October, he hit Cochran for taking part in the compromise that ended the federal government shutdown. 鈥淚鈥檝e got 17 trillion reasons not to compromise,鈥� he said, referring to the federal debt.

Aside from his comments on Katrina aid, McDaniel鈥檚 take on federal spending might be his toughest sell to his state鈥檚 voters. After all, Mississippi ranks consistently at or near the top of states that get the most federal money per capita. But political analysts say Mississippians aren鈥檛 bothered by that.

鈥淚t鈥檚 historically true of the South. You send them to Congress young, and keep them there to die of old age,鈥� says Joe Parker, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Southern Mississippi in Hattiesburg. 鈥淭hrough seniority, they bring home the bacon.鈥�

When asked whether Mississippi needs to become more self-reliant, McDaniel talks about the nation as a whole.

鈥淎ll 50 states have to become more self-reliant,鈥� McDaniel says. 鈥淯tah for example has some dependency. So does New Jersey.鈥�

Ask Henry Barbour what really scares him about McDaniel, and it鈥檚 more than just the possibility he could defeat Cochran. If nominated, McDaniel could lose the election in November, Barbour says.

Mr. Childers, the Democrat, is the strongest pick his party could have hoped for in a long-shot bid. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report ranks Cochran鈥檚 seat 鈥渓ikely Republican,鈥� one click less safe than 鈥渟olid Republican.鈥� 聽聽

Noel Fritsch, McDaniel鈥檚 communications director, says a McDaniel loss to Mr. Childers is 鈥渕etaphysically impossible.鈥� McDaniel himself points to the 2008 election, a big Democratic year, when former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) took on the state鈥檚 newly appointed senator, Roger Wicker (R). Mr. Musgrove lost by 10 points.

Still, Barbour worries the less-experienced McDaniel might slip up in the general, were he to win the nomination, just as other tea-party backed Republicans lost races the party could have won in 2010 and 2012. An improbable Republican loss in Mississippi would complicate the GOP鈥檚 drive to take control of the Senate.

If McDaniel gets the GOP nomination, Barbour says, 鈥淚 think it鈥檚 a 50-50 race at that point.鈥�

Barbour鈥檚 alarm bells may in part be aimed at donors. But as the old political saying goes, you鈥檙e either running unopposed or you鈥檙e running scared.聽