海角大神

Whether diplomacy may yet ease the spiraling tensions on the Korean peninsula, amid increasingly provocative steps by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, hangs on two key factors: neighboring China鈥檚 assessment of the situation and Mr. Kim鈥檚 internal standing.

Both are difficult for US diplomats to gauge, though Secretary of State John Kerry will be in Seoul, Beijing, and Tokyo later this week, in part to try to enlist China鈥檚 help in bringing the tense military stare-down to a nonviolent end.

First, say some experts on the region, Mr. Kerry will need to ascertain whether China is worried enough about the potential effects of Kim鈥檚 fiery threats to lay aside its suspicions about long-term US intentions in the region 鈥� heightened by President Obama鈥檚 announced intent to 鈥減ivot鈥� to Asia. (On Tuesday, North Korea repeated an old pledge to engulf Seoul, South Korea鈥檚 capital, in a 鈥渢hermo-nuclear inferno鈥� and warned foreigners to flee.)

As for the second factor, Kim himself, the question is whether North Korea鈥檚 young leader has, by ratcheting up tensions, reinforced his hold on domestic power to the point that he can pull back from his aggressive posture.

鈥淚 do think we鈥檙e going to see some action鈥� from Kim 鈥� perhaps another missile test in the coming days 鈥� 鈥渁nd then some dialing back,鈥� says Andrew Scobell, a senior political scientist focusing on US-China relations at the RAND Corp. in Arlington, Va. 鈥淗e鈥檚 got to be concerned about his internal control.鈥�

The US, for its part, is looking to China to put the brakes on its troublesome ally 鈥� hence Kerry鈥檚 upcoming stop in Beijing Saturday and Mr. Obama鈥檚 phone call last week with China鈥檚 new leader, President Xi Jinping. China, though, is reluctant to pressure Pyongyang in ways that might benefit the US standing in the region, Mr. Scobell says.

Successive administrations come into the White House thinking China is the key to 鈥渟olving鈥� the North Korean problem, he says, but so far they have mostly been disappointed over how far Beijing has been willing to go to rein in the North.

鈥淭he Chinese are more worried about what the US might do than what the North Koreans might do,鈥� says Scobell, co-author of the book, 鈥淐hina鈥檚 Search for Security.鈥� China is 鈥渨orried about what North Korea is doing,鈥� he says, but is 鈥渃oncerned the alternative to this might be even worse.鈥�

What's worse, in China's view? "A nuclear-armed unified Korea aligned with the US," says David Shlapak, Scobell鈥檚 colleague at RAND.

In the heat of the North Korean crisis, Beijing has not forgotten its concerns over Obama鈥檚 鈥渞ebalancing鈥� of US assets and priorities toward Asia, some regional analysts say. Indeed, Scobell believes that Beijing doesn鈥檛 see this latest rise in tensions as a crisis 鈥� even though China was concerned enough by North Korea鈥檚 missile launch and nuclear test this year to support a new round of international sanctions against the North.

But in the US, hopes persist that China will be willing to use its leverage as the North's dominant trade partner and lifeline. Some administration officials and analysts point to China鈥檚 Security Council vote for economic sanctions, as well as recent comments by Chinese officials, including President Xi, as evidence that Beijing has become more exasperated by Kim's destabilizing antics.

Kerry will probe such theories while in Beijing.

But even if Beijing is willing to apply pressure to Pyongyang, its influence may matter less to Kim than his own intent to consolidate his position among North Korea's elites 鈥� primarily the military.聽Some reports out of Pyongyang suggest that additional international sanctions, approved by the UN Security Council last month, are being felt, especially by the elites whom Kim needs behind him. The sanctions include measures against the North鈥檚 main foreign exchange bank, and bans on exporting to the North the luxury goods the regime uses to keep the elites of the country鈥檚 power structure happy.

鈥淲e do see some evidence that Chinese goods are being stopped at the border,鈥� says Bruce Bennett, a RAND security analyst specializing in North and South Korea. If blockages of such goods destined for the North continue, that could eventually help to undermine Kim, Mr. Bennett says. But right now, he adds, 鈥渋t is hard to know where the overlap is鈥� between the effect of sanctions and 鈥渏ust poor [economic] performance in North Korea.鈥澛�

In the eyes of some analysts, Kim may be acting to firm up his support among the country鈥檚 elites in anticipation that sanctions will pinch harder in the near future. 鈥淎nything that negatively impacts their benefits could affect their allegiance to鈥� Kim, says Scobell.

Interpreting Kim鈥檚 actions that way may also help explain why China, thought perhaps concerned about rising tensions, does not see the situation as a 鈥渃risis鈥� requiring a tough diplomatic offensive.

As for how much new pressure Kerry is likely to get Beijing to apply to Kim, Scobell says, 鈥減robably not much.鈥�