海角大神

Over his past decade as the leading figure of America鈥檚 political right, President Donald Trump has succeeded largely through an ability to hold together an ideologically diverse group of voters. While some found themselves drawn to Mr. Trump on policy, others supported him because of a promise that he would singularly be able to expose wrongdoing among America鈥檚 social and political elites.

For those voters, one case became uniquely tied to Mr. Trump鈥檚 political identity, and it now threatens the big MAGA tent that he has thus far held together.

Since the disgraced financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein died by suicide in 2019 while in jail on federal charges of sex trafficking of minors, a subset of voters oriented their politics around the release of the 鈥淓pstein files鈥�: documents that purportedly show he was actually killed to prevent the release of a 鈥渃lient list鈥� that would have exposed prominent people involved with his crimes. Mr. Trump campaigned on a promise to release this list, and later appointed FBI leaders he said would prioritize the issue.

But since the Department of Justice released a two-page memo on July 7 stating that no 鈥渃lient list鈥� exists, Mr. Trump has urged his supporters to move on from the Epstein conspiracy. What has ensued in the days since is a pushback unlike anything the president has seen before from his supporters, who say that Mr. Trump鈥檚 quick pivot on Mr. Epstein has upended their trust.

This unprecedented fracture in the president鈥檚 GOP is so seismic in part because Mr. Trump is now being questioned as part of the same deep state conspiracies that he had promised to root out.

鈥淓ven when we passed the One Big Beautiful Bill, there was some resistance from our fiscal hawks on the far right before they said 鈥楴o, we are going to do this.鈥� But there are going to be people who will not fall in line on this. This could be a reputation breaker,鈥� says Shelley Kais, the former chair of Arizona鈥檚 Pima County GOP and current vice chair of Tucson Republican Women.

鈥淵ou see people saying things like, 鈥楬as Trump finally been bought by the deep state?鈥欌�� says Ms. Kais. 鈥淚t鈥檚 creating suspicion, and with suspicion goes trust.鈥�

Unlike other times in Mr. Trump鈥檚 political career, his supporters aren鈥檛 falling in line. In a Truth Social post over the weekend, in which Mr. Trump reminded his followers that MAGA is on 鈥渙ne Team鈥� and to not waste 鈥淭ime and Energy on Jeffrey Epstein,鈥� the president was uncharacteristically 鈥渞atioed,鈥� meaning that the post has more comments than likes 鈥� a sign that it was not well received.

鈥淭his statement breaks my heart, Mr. President,鈥� wrote one user.

鈥淓veryone I know is upset about this and it will kill MAGA,鈥� wrote another user. 鈥淭his is why we don鈥檛 trust the government.鈥�

The pushback has been so strong that conservative media hosts and Republican officials have broken with the president 鈥� most recently House Speaker Mike Johnson, who told a right wing commentator on Tuesday that he supported the release of the Epstein files. Despite his comments, House Republicans have since blocked two Democratic motions to vote on releasing the files. Later Tuesday, Mr. Trump said Attorney General Pam Bondi should release any 鈥渃redible鈥� information she has, but he questioned why anyone cares about the case.

鈥淭he conspiracy theory about Jeffrey Epstein, which Trump helped to fan, was a big deal, and maybe a bigger deal than many of us on the outside of that theory looking in have realized,鈥� says Matt Dallek, a political historian at George Washington University. 鈥淣ow, because he has hugged his base so closely for the better part of a decade, with so many conspiracy theories and so many promises made, in a way maybe the bill is coming due a little bit.鈥�

A 鈥渢urning point鈥� for Trump and conspiracy theories

Just earlier this month, Mr. Trump had been having a successful summer. The Supreme Court handed him a number of victories, allowing the president to pursue his policies with minimal avenues for legal recourse. And despite tight margins, Congress passed the president鈥檚 tax and spending bill by his self-imposed July 4 deadline. 鈥淭he last two weeks, there鈥檚 never been anything like it, as far as winning, winning, winning,鈥� said Mr. Trump at his celebratory bill signing on the White House South Lawn.

At a moment when Mr. Trump wants the focus to be on his signature legislation, conservative commentators and online influencers have instead been preoccupied with his administration鈥檚 handling of the Epstein case.

Details about Mr. Epstein鈥檚 shadowy personal life first gained prominence in 2005 when he was accused of sexually abusing girls as young as 14, but he avoided federal charges with a plea deal. He was indicted on new charges in 2019 for sex trafficking, which were dropped after he was found unresponsive in his jail cell. The fact that federal prosecutors say Mr. Epstein operated an underground, underage sex trafficking ring in New York, Palm Beach, and on his private Caribbean island, along with the numerous photographs of Mr. Epstein with famous figures like former President Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew, Duke of York, and Mr. Trump, have led some people to believe that Mr. Epstein had famous clients.

Mr. Trump has distanced himself from Mr. Epstein for about two decades, according to some news accounts. Mr. Trump鈥檚 supporters have previously said the client list should be released, not suspecting any sordid details to involve the president. But his recent about-face on the issue has made some voters question if he has been co-opted by the same deep state he promised to expose.

鈥淭his is a turning point where one of the conspiracy theories that have been part of his brand is potentially implicating himself,鈥� says Ryan Neville-Shepard, an expert on the intersection of politics and conspiracy theories at the University of Arkansas. 鈥淲hen he is distancing himself from that brand in a small way, it doesn鈥檛 make sense to people in his coalition who have gone along with him, who now believe there is a deep state in government.鈥�

Former Trump adviser and popular conservative commentator Steve Bannon suggested on his 鈥淲ar Room鈥� podcast on Friday that this issue could lose 鈥�10% of the MAGA movement鈥� and as many as 40 congressional seats in 2026. Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene warned of 鈥渟ignificant鈥� reverberations in the MAGA movement, telling CNN that the Epstein case is 鈥渁 red line鈥� for many voters.

After a group of Mr. Trump鈥檚 most ardent young supporters erupted in boos over the administration鈥檚 handling of the Epstein case at a Turning Point USA Student Action Summit in Tampa over the weekend, Mr. Trump called founder Charlie Kirk, prompting the young conservative to announce Monday that he was 鈥渄one鈥� talking about Mr. Epstein. But on Tuesday, Mr. Kirk clarified that meant he was only done talking about Mr. Epstein for the day, and posted a 10-point action list for the Trump administration on X.

鈥淭here鈥檚 clearly a whole network of influencers on the MAGA right who have exposed millions to the conspiracy theory about Epstein 鈥� conspiracy entrepreneurs who have profited not just financially but in terms of clout and number of followers,鈥� says Mr. Dallek. 鈥淵es, they are loyal to Trump, but they are also loyal to their own brands and their own theories.鈥�

This dynamic has added another layer to the drama, as infighting continues between Ms. Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel and Deputy Director Dan Bongino, all three of whom promised to release revelations in this case once in office. Mr. Patel and Mr. Bongino have faced criticism since stating earlier this year that the evidence they鈥檝e seen confirms that Mr. Epstein killed himself. And Ms. Bondi, who has been under fire since a February event where she handed out thick white binders of declassified Epstein documents with no new information to MAGA influencers, engaged in a back and forth with the leaders at the FBI over who is hampering the investigation. Mr. Bongino, who had made the Epstein list a core component of his radio shows before his appointment to the bureau, didn鈥檛 show up for work on Friday after a falling out with Ms. Bondi.

鈥淭his is a huge deal,鈥� says former Florida Rep. Anthony Sabatini, who is now a Lake County, Florida, commissioner and who attended the Tampa event where the audience seemed to unanimously support releasing the documents.

鈥淲hy would you go out of your way to hide and purposely not release basic information about an issue with major public interest when people want it?鈥� asks Mr. Sabatini, comparing the situation to Democrats鈥� efforts to hide President Joe Biden鈥檚 ailing health. 鈥淚 think it鈥檚 only going to get worse. The administration is losing credibility.鈥�

Trump supporters 鈥渟mell a rat鈥�

Democrats are seeking to capitalize on the wedge forming within MAGA. Congressional Democrats have tried to force several votes on releasing all Epstein-related information, and 2028 presidential hopefuls have questioned why Mr. Trump hasn鈥檛 released any new information despite his promises to do so. Some Democrats, as well as some Republicans, have suggested that Mr. Trump is withholding the Epstein files because he and Mr. Epstein were friends, and the files hold incriminating information about the president. Elon Musk said as much in a now-deleted X post in June.

And while these moves troll Mr. Trump and Republicans, they also serve Democrats鈥� own base of supporters.

A CNN poll released Tuesday found that only 3% of Americans were 鈥渟atisfied鈥� with how the federal government has handled the Epstein investigation, with at least a plurality of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans all voicing dissatisfaction. An Economist/YouGov poll last weekend had similar findings, with 75% of Republicans and 85% of Democrats saying that the government should 鈥渞elease all documents鈥� about Mr. Epstein.

Many Republicans, of course, trust the president that there is nothing further to be released in the case.

The controversy is a media creation intended to find cracks in Mr. Trump鈥檚 鈥渕egacoalition,鈥� says Shawn Steel, a California representative to the Republican National Committee and former chair of the Republican Party of California.

鈥淚t鈥檚 such a strangely different kind of Republican coalition, the left just doesn鈥檛 know what to do with it,鈥� says Mr. Steel. 鈥淪o if they can find something strange and weird to focus in on, I get it. 鈥� This is the wrong area because nobody cares.鈥�

But to many Trump supporters, the Epstein investigation echoes other 鈥渉unches鈥� that MAGA people had which were dismissed as conspiracy theories and later taken seriously, such as COVID-19 lab leak theories and Mr. Biden鈥檚 ailing health. This, along with the circumstantial evidence such as photographs of Mr. Epstein with world leaders, celebrities, and politicians, and the FBI鈥檚 鈥渞aw鈥� video footage outside Mr. Epstein鈥檚 jail cell that has almost three minutes missing, only compounds these frustrations.

鈥淏ad things happen that shouldn鈥檛 have happened and government officials lied about it,鈥� says 海角大神 Forte, chair of the Sacramento County GOP. 鈥淭hey smell a rat here, so the base wants the truth. 鈥� [Trump] campaigned hard on transparency so that鈥檚 why these folks are, like, 鈥楬ey, this is part of that deal.鈥欌��