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鈥淭rump 2028.鈥�

Suggestions that President Donald Trump could run for a third term seem to be everywhere: On signs behind the president as he addressed a Michigan rally last week marking the first 100 days of his second term, with the crowd chanting 鈥淭hree! Three! Three!鈥� On baseball caps selling for $50 via the retail site of his company, the Trump Organization. In the rhetoric of supporters, aides 鈥� and the president himself.

The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution explicitly prohibits election to more than two terms as president, but that hasn鈥檛 stopped the speculation. Perhaps, supporters say, President Trump can find a loophole.

Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon has regularly floated the idea of a Trump third term. Last month, he told HBO talk show host Bill Maher that 鈥渢he 22nd Amendment is open to interpretation.鈥�

鈥淥n the afternoon of January 20th of 2029,鈥� Mr. Bannon declared, Mr. Trump is 鈥済oing to be president of the United States.鈥�

Of course, Mr. Trump may be kidding when he publicly toys with the idea of a third term. Until recently, that鈥檚 how such comments were largely perceived by both the media and congressional Republicans. But in late March, when asked on a phone call to NBC News to clarify if he really might try to run for a third term, he insisted 鈥渢here are methods which you could do it,鈥� and added: 鈥淚鈥檓 not joking.鈥�

On Sunday, however, Mr. Trump reversed course. 鈥淚鈥檒l be an eight-year president,鈥� he said on NBC鈥檚 鈥淢eet the Press.鈥� Seeking a third term, he said, is 鈥渟omething that, to the best of my knowledge, you鈥檙e not allowed to do.鈥�

Mr. Trump is already the oldest president to be inaugurated; he would be 82 in 2028. Still, observers say even his latest denial seems unlikely to completely shut down the third-term talk.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a political weapon,鈥� says a Republican strategist with ties to the Trump orbit, speaking not for attribution so as to speak freely. 鈥淗e wants that conversation to go forever, because otherwise he鈥檚 a lame duck.鈥�

Talk of a third term is one way of eclipsing discussion of a 2028 GOP presidential field. Besides, the Republican strategist says, the president just enjoys seeing the reaction.

鈥淭rump brings it up to watch people鈥檚 heads explode,鈥� the GOP operative says.

Julia Azari, a political scientist at Marquette University in Wisconsin, echoes this view: 鈥淎 lot of it is about getting attention, and creating a frenzy.鈥�

The third term chatter has particularly unsettled Mr. Trump's opponents, given the ways in which he has been testing the limits of presidential power in his second term. And of course, Mr. Trump tried to hold onto power in 2020, claiming without evidence that the election had been stolen.

For Democrats, it鈥檚 another reason to paint Mr. Trump as a wannabe autocrat, in the vein of Russia鈥檚 Vladimir Putin, China鈥檚 Xi Jinping, and Hungary鈥檚 Viktor Orban, who all blew through two-term limits and are now effectively 鈥渓eaders for life鈥� of their respective countries.

Could there actually be a 鈥渓oophole鈥�?

The 22nd Amendment starts by saying: 鈥淣o person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.鈥� One commonly suggested 鈥渨ork-around鈥� is to have Vice President JD Vance run for president, and Mr. Trump run for vice president. Then, if they win, Mr. Vance steps aside, and Mr. Trump becomes president.

But the 12th Amendment to the Constitution prevents such a scenario. It states that 鈥渘o person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.鈥� Having already been elected president twice, therefore, Mr. Trump is ineligible to run for VP.

What about amending the Constitution to repeal the two-term limit? That would be a mighty steep climb, experts say, especially given the close margins of control in Congress and today鈥檚 highly polarized politics. A constitutional amendment requires two-thirds approval from both the House and Senate, plus the approval of three-quarters of state legislatures.

Here鈥檚 another loophole scenario: The Republicans put up a winning ticket for president and VP, win a majority in the House of Representatives, and elect Mr. Trump as speaker. The president and VP resign, and the speaker, as second in the line of succession, becomes president. (The speakership of the House does not require eligibility for the presidency.)

鈥淭heoretically, that would be legal,鈥� writes Jeremy Paul, a constitutional law professor at Northeastern University in Boston, in an email. 鈥淏ut it would make for a deeply confusing campaign for voters.鈥�

And, he adds, the GOP would likely need a bigger cushion in their majority, as not every member would go along.

Why there鈥檚 a two-term limit

Among the nation鈥檚 Founding Fathers, who rebelled against monarchy, there was no consensus on term limits for the presidency.

鈥淭hose who did not favor them wanted to preserve, among other things, the possibility of a good president serving a long tenure, especially during a time of crisis,鈥� writes Michael Korzi, author of a book on presidential term limits, in an email.

Others saw long tenures as inviting corruption and abuse of power, adds Professor Korzi, political science chair at Towson University in Maryland.

George Washington, the first president, was trusted to serve as many terms as he wished, and opted for two. Thomas Jefferson, the third president, always had anti-Federalist leanings, Mr. Korzi notes, and was explicit in his view that a president should serve no more than two terms. When he stepped down, he deliberately linked his decision to the principle of 鈥渞otation.鈥� His immediate successors followed that model, establishing the two-term tradition.

That tradition held until the mid-20th century, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt ran for and won four terms, amid economic depression and war. He died in 1945, soon after the start of his fourth term, having concealed his poor health from voters. The 22nd Amendment formally establishing a two-term limit was ratified in 1951.

Mr. Trump famously enjoys flouting norms and traditions, but most experts believe getting around the 22nd Amendment to serve a third term would be all but impossible.

鈥淣ever say never, I suppose,鈥� Mr. Korzi says, 鈥渂ut the case against a third term is constitutionally very strong. One might even say ironclad.鈥�