Joe Biden鈥檚 legacy rests with Kamala Harris. Can he help her win?
For the next 100 days, a sensitive issue for the Harris campaign and the White House is, Where and when should Joe Biden be seen?聽
For the next 100 days, a sensitive issue for the Harris campaign and the White House is, Where and when should Joe Biden be seen?聽
In short order, Joe Biden鈥檚 world has transformed.聽
Less than two weeks ago, the president was pursuing what looked increasingly to be a failing reelection campaign. After a poor debate performance, he was sinking in polls, fundraising had plummeted, and calls from top fellow Democrats to drop out of the race had reached a frenzied pitch.聽
Now an ex-candidate, President Biden is a lame duck. But he鈥檚 also liberated, freed from trying to do two full-time jobs simultaneously 鈥 running for reelection while also serving as president of the United States. In this new reality, he faces both challenges and opportunities.聽
Mr. Biden can spend his remaining time in office focused on two things, political analysts say: cementing the legacy of what Democrats see as a consequential one-term presidency; and helping get聽his vice president, Kamala Harris 鈥 as of Friday, the party鈥檚 formal nominee 鈥 elected聽as his successor. His overarching goal remains the same, preventing Donald Trump from returning to the White House.聽
Thursday鈥檚 massive, multinational prisoner swap with Russia presented Mr. Biden, who has long championed international alliances and the power of diplomacy, with聽a major victory聽on the global stage.聽The swap, which involved cooperation from European allies,聽included the freeing of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich after 16 months in captivity.
Going forward, 鈥淎ny positive news that happens in the real world is something that Biden can now announce without an overt political lens,鈥 says Dan Schnur, a former Republican campaign strategist, now an independent. 鈥淚t won鈥檛 translate in quite as partisan a way as if he were the one actually on the ballot.鈥
Still, it did not go unnoticed that national security adviser Jake Sullivan mentioned Vice President Harris multiple times in discussing the prisoner exchange at the White House briefing Thursday. He credited her with playing a role in the deal by engaging with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the matter in February at the聽Munich Security Conference.
In the evening, Ms. Harris accompanied Mr. Biden to Joint Base Andrews in Maryland to greet the freed Americans, and聽both spoke to reporters聽on the tarmac. Expect to see Ms. Harris playing a more visible role in the weeks to come, with or without Mr. Biden at her side.聽
Even amid questions about Mr. Biden鈥檚 energy level, there was no doubt Thursday that he was engaged 鈥撀燼nd happy to celebrate a triumph of diplomacy.聽Though Mr. Biden鈥檚 public schedule isn鈥檛 nearly as busy now, with a sudden dearth of campaign events, political analysts see ways for him to remain active in public life.聽
鈥淚f he鈥檚 paced properly, if he chooses what he says in public strategically, then I don鈥檛 see why he couldn鈥檛 finish successfully,鈥 says William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former policy adviser in the Clinton White House.
The president has already seen his聽job approval numbers rise聽since dropping out of the race. But his legacy will ride in no small part on whether Ms. Harris wins in November.
From candidate to featured speaker at DNC
In Chicago later this month, instead of accepting his party鈥檚 nomination for a second term, Mr. Biden will be the featured speaker on the first night of the Democratic National Convention.聽
And on the campaign trail, the president can still play a role.聽
鈥淏iden was certainly a weak candidate, but he still did have strengths,鈥 says Mr. Schnur, now聽a professor at the University of Southern California鈥檚 Annenberg school of communications. 鈥淗e can still be of use to the Harris campaign with working-class voters in Rust Belt states and with older voters.鈥澛
And, Mr. Schnur adds, there鈥檚 no reason Mr. Biden shouldn鈥檛 be campaigning in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin 鈥 two key battlegrounds 鈥 closer to Election Day, either at Ms. Harris鈥 side or on his own. He also suggests the campaign could use targeted media featuring Mr. Biden in its outreach to white working-class voters and to seniors, two demographics with which he polls more strongly than Ms. Harris.
The risk is that Mr. Biden is famously gaffe-prone, and he could take her campaign off-message.聽
More broadly, Ms. Harris also owns Mr. Biden鈥檚 record, for better or worse, be it on the economy, immigration, or the escalating war in the Middle East. Ms. Harris is seen as more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause than Mr. Biden, which could help her in battleground Michigan, with its large Arab American community. But Ms. Harris also can鈥檛 risk alienating Democratic supporters of Israel.聽
鈥淚f [Mr. Biden] can accomplish some sort of breakthrough on the Middle East that stabilizes the situation and makes it less of a central issue, that would be helpful to the Democratic ticket,鈥 says Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, in an email. 鈥淢oreover, any major progress on domestic issues, even using executive power, could be beneficial since Harris鈥檚 record is tied to his.鈥
This 鈥渉ighly unusual moment鈥澛燿iffers from 1968
Certainly, the dynamic between Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris is easier than the last time a sitting president, Lyndon B. Johnson, dropped his reelection bid 鈥 in 1968 鈥 and his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, tried to run on his record. Mr. Humphrey saw a late surge in support, but only after crossing President Johnson over Vietnam War policy. He lost anyway.聽
鈥淭his is a highly unusual moment, different than 1968, given how polarized the electorate is, how many people dislike Trump, and how despite being Biden鈥檚 VP,聽[Ms. Harris]聽represents much more than a continuation of the status quo,鈥 Professor Zelizer writes.聽
Indeed, while Mr. Biden鈥檚 decision to drop his reelection campaign, rare in American politics, is often likened to President Johnson鈥檚 shocking decision to quit his reelection bid, a聽better role model for the current incumbent might be President Ronald Reagan.
By the end of his second term, Mr. Reagan was slowing down and ready to pass the torch to his vice president, George H.W. Bush. Mr. Bush won what is sometimes called Mr. Reagan鈥檚 鈥渢hird term.鈥澛
The analogy falters,聽however,聽not only because of聽today鈥檚 intense polarization but also because of Mr. Biden鈥檚 inability to score much above 40% in public approval. Mr. Reagan left office above 60%. But analysts don鈥檛 rule out Mr. Biden鈥檚 ability to shift his political capital to Ms. Harris, particularly with certain key demographic groups, including white working-class voters.聽
Today, Mr. Biden鈥檚 legacy is on the line, and a loss by Ms. Harris would wipe it out, says Mr. Galston, the Brookings scholar. If Mr. Trump retakes the White House, then the Biden presidency would effectively be just an 鈥渋nterregnum鈥 between two Trump terms.
鈥淏iden would be seen as a kind of failed president, in the way that Jimmy Carter is,鈥 Mr. Galston says. 鈥淏iden鈥檚 historical standing is really riding on the outcome of the election.鈥