海角大神

Just days into her nascent 2024 presidential campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris is already facing her first big decision: picking a running mate.听听

The vice-presidential search process 鈥� which typically involves a months-long vetting of several candidates 鈥� is now happening in a fraction of that time. Democrats reportedly are planning to nominate their ticket as soon as August 7, with a virtual roll call vote before the party鈥檚 convention in Chicago later that month.

So far, speculation as to whom Ms. Harris may ask to join the ticket has largely focused on a small group of popular governors and senators from key battleground states. That would be a departure from recent history, in which campaigns have largely discounted vice-presidential candidates鈥� ability to 鈥渄eliver鈥� a state, and the picks have often been driven by other factors, like an impressive r茅sum茅聽or personal chemistry.

鈥淭here are very few examples over the last 60-something years where a presidential candidate has chosen a running mate to carry their home state,鈥� says Joel Goldstein, a professor at Saint Louis University Law School and expert on the vice presidency. But in an election that could come down to a handful of voters in a handful of states, as occurred in the two most recent presidential cycles, the calculus changes. 鈥淚f you find [a good candidate] in one of those states, then maybe [Harris] is more likely to choose them than would have been the case in previous cycles, when the battlefield was larger.鈥�

The Harris campaign also appears to be taking demographic and ideological considerations into account. Most of the candidates who have reportedly been asked to submit vetting documents are moderate, middle-aged white men who might appeal to a different set of voters than a Black, female politician from California. It鈥檚 the same kind of calculation President Joe Biden made, in reverse, when he tapped Ms. Harris in 2020. Above all, the campaign鈥檚 priority will be picking a vice president who鈥檚 ready for primetime and whom America could envision as a plausible president.聽

While it鈥檚 possible a dark-horse candidate could wind up getting the nod, among those reportedly under consideration, three high-profile, swing-state officials are generating the most buzz.聽

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro

Arguably no state is more important for Democrats in November than Pennsylvania, which Mr. Biden won by less than two percentage points in 2020. Two years later, then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro won the governorship by almost 15 points 鈥� albeit against a weak Republican candidate聽鈥撀爏etting a record for the most votes ever received by a gubernatorial candidate in the Keystone State. One poll found Mr. Shapiro to have the highest approval rating among his four immediate predecessors at the one-year mark,聽with almost half of all voters saying he is doing an 鈥渆xcellent鈥� or 鈥済ood鈥� job. Another poll found that 59% of Pennsylvanians聽鈥� including 36% of Republicans 鈥� approved of Mr. Shapiro鈥檚 first year in office.聽

In his short time in office, Mr. Shapiro has been praised for his quick reopening of I-95 after a fire caused a section of the highway to collapse, as well as聽his unifying response to the attempted assassination of Mr. Trump in his state.聽Mr. Shapiro, who would be the first Jewish vice president if chosen and elected, could also help Ms. Harris refute Republican attacks on the Democratic Party as being pro-Hamas. He has said he feels a unique responsibility聽to speak out on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, and he has been critical of Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while also condemning a rise in antisemitism and the protests on college campuses this spring.聽

鈥淚t鈥檚 rare that a vice-presidential nominee can deliver a state, but the thing about Josh Shapiro is that he is popular across party lines,鈥� says Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist based in Pittsburgh who worked with former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf. 鈥淒emocrats like him. Independents like him. A sizable number of Republicans like him.鈥�

The Harris campaign is likely eyeing the 17% of Pennsylvania Republican primary voters who voted for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley over former President Donald Trump in the state鈥檚 GOP primary earlier this year. These anti-Trump Republicans might be open to voting for the Democratic ticket if their own popular governor was the vice-presidential nominee.

鈥淸Shapiro] is a very talented political tactician,鈥� says Mr. Mikus. 鈥淗e always seems to strike the right tone at the right moment.鈥�

Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly

Like Mr. Shapiro, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly has experience running 鈥� and winning 鈥� campaigns against MAGA-aligned candidates.聽

After serving as a U.S. Navy pilot and NASA astronaut, including four trips into space, Mr. Kelly was first elected to the U.S. Senate in a 2020 special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. John McCain. His win marked the first time since the 1950s that Arizona had two Democratic senators. After less than two years in Washington, Mr. Kelly then ran for a full term against venture capitalist Blake Masters, winning by almost 5 points.聽

Mr. Masters, like Mr. Trump鈥檚 newly named vice president, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, was backed by Silicon Valley executive Peter Thiel and leaned into a strong MAGA message on the campaign trail 鈥� an experience that could help Mr. Kelly run against his Republican counterpart if picked, says Tony Cani, a Democratic strategist and 2020 deputy director for the Biden-Harris campaign in Arizona.聽

鈥淲hen you are running to win in states like Arizona, where in recent elections you won by under 11,000 [votes], you are looking for every possible advantage,鈥� says Mr. Cani, referring to Mr. Biden鈥檚 0.3% win over Mr. Trump in 2020. Thus far in polls, Mr. Trump has been running ahead in many of the states that Mr. Biden flipped in 2020, including Arizona.

On the other hand, if Mr. Kelly were selected, Democrats would risk losing a Senate seat. Arizona Democrats would have to find another candidate to run in what would likely be a close campaign, several years earlier than expected.聽

Still, Mr. Kelly could help Ms. Harris on the issue of immigration, which the Trump campaign has already telegraphed will be a main line of attack. The Arizona senator has publicly urged his party to take a tougher approach on border security, and he has criticized Republicans for rejecting solutions like the bipartisan bill that was proposed earlier this year. On the issue of guns, Mr. Kelly offers a nuanced perspective: a gun owner himself, Mr. Kelly has pushed for 鈥渃ommon sense鈥� gun laws after the 2011 attempted assassination of his wife, then-Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. In the years since, Mr. Kelly and Ms. Giffords have run one of the most successful 鈥済un safety鈥� advocacy organizations.聽

鈥淰oters of all ages react well to knowing the love and conviction he has for his wife, who was also a massive figure in Arizona when the shooting happened,鈥� says Mr. Cani. 鈥淚n this time when political rhetoric is so overheated, having someone who has consistently stood up against that because of his own experience and offered common-sense solutions, I think that is something that voters will appreciate on the national stage.鈥澛�

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper

Like Mr. Shapiro and Mr. Kelly, Mr. Cooper is reportedly being closely considered for the VP spot. A stalwart of North Carolina Democratic politics for almost 40 years, Mr. Cooper began his political career in both state houses before being elected attorney general and then governor in 2017. Like Mr. Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Mr. Cooper has a favorability rating that鈥檚聽ahead of Mr. Biden鈥檚聽by double digits in North Carolina. And he could give Democrats a leg up in one of the seven closest states from 2020, where current polling shows them running well behind.聽

Mr. Cooper can also point to successes working across the aisle. After taking office in early 2017, he set about trying to persuade North Carolina鈥檚 GOP legislature to join a majority of U.S. states in opting into a Medicaid expansion program through the Affordable Care Act, which covers Americans who make too much money to qualify for traditional Medicaid but not enough to afford private health insurance. His persistence paid off: Last year the Republican-controlled General Assembly passed legislation approving of the expansion, and Mr. Cooper signed it into law. So far, more than聽500,000 North Carolinians聽have enrolled.

During Governor Cooper鈥檚 tenure, North Carolina has been rated 鈥淏est for Business鈥� by CNBC聽two years in a row.聽A former Sunday School teacher聽who has聽never lost an election,聽Mr. Cooper,聽who was raised in聽rural聽Nash County,聽could also help Ms. Harris expand her southern and rural support, a useful counter to her own West Coast biography.

When picking a vice president, 鈥淵ou鈥檙e trying to compliment your own strength or address your perceived weaknesses,鈥� says Mr. Goldstein. 鈥淏ut you鈥檙e also sending messages that you 鈥榞et it.鈥� You鈥檙e saying, 鈥楾his matters to me.鈥欌��

Other names in the mix听听

Several other officials have reportedly been asked to provide information to the Harris campaign, including Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat from a deep-red state whom voters praised for his reassuring nightly briefings during the early days of the COVID-19 lockdown. Although Kentucky won鈥檛 be a competitive state for Democrats in the presidential election, Mr. Beshear speaks easily to rural and religious voters, often mentioning his own 海角大神 faith, which could help the Democratic ticket elsewhere.聽

Illinois also isn鈥檛 considered up for grabs this November 鈥� Democrats should win the state handily 鈥� but its governor, JB Pritzker, is also reportedly being considered. Many Democrats have taken note of his sharp, fearless jabs at Mr. Trump over the years. There鈥檚 also his personal fortune 鈥� Mr. Pritzker is a billionaire 鈥� which could be useful in what鈥檚 sure to be an expensive race.聽

Other names in the mix include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who ran for president in 2020 and has impressed many Democrats with his deft media appearances, including on Fox News. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has been on a book tour promoting a new memoir, has refuted reports that the Harris campaign has asked her to provide vetting materials. She has reiterated that she plans to finish out the next two and half years of her term as governor. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on the other hand, whose name was not on many original short lists, has drawn attention in recent days for strong cable news hits. The former high school teacher has been making the case for Ms. Harris鈥� candidacy, leading Mr. Trump to criticize Fox News for inviting Mr. Walz on as a guest. He鈥檚 also been joking聽on social media about how he came to lack a full head of hair.听听

With the exception of Ms. Whitmer, however, none of these candidates could help deliver a swing state.

鈥淲e鈥檝e got some really compelling people who have won difficult races,鈥� says Mr. Cani. 鈥淲hen you have so many good options, you鈥檒l still consider the geography question even if it鈥檚 not the primary one.鈥�