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Former President Donald Trump, coming off an assassination attempt that shook America, will soon give what may be the most closely watched political speech of his life.聽How he leverages this moment will shape the trajectory of a turbulent era in U.S. politics.聽

Mr. Trump, a uniquely聽polarizing political figure in recent American history, has become a near-messianic figure to some supporters and a dangerous, despotic presence in the view of his detractors since his unlikely presidential victory in 2016. His narrow escape from a fatal shooting Saturday, which left him bloodied and a rally attendee dead,聽has only magnified some supporters鈥� belief that his candidacy is divine 鈥� and raised the stakes even further for this election.

That makes what Mr. Trump says this week, and for the rest of the campaign, so crucial. If a man famous for incendiary rhetoric leads the way in lowering the political temperature, it could go a long way toward avoiding future political violence. But if he can鈥檛 resist the urge to use聽this moment聽to paint Democrats as the real threats to democracy, that will likely further inflame tensions 鈥� and聽could spark聽more violence.聽

To paraphrase Mr. Trump himself from his 2016 Republican National Convention speech, he alone can fix it.

鈥淭rump, in the wake of a near-death experience, may be seeing the world differently, at least for a little while. How that will manifest itself is unclear, but right now he鈥檚 more conciliatory,鈥� says Carol 鈥淩ollie鈥� Flynn, a 30-year CIA veteran and president emeritus of the Foreign Policy Research Institute who specializes in political violence.

Mr. Trump survived an attempt on his life and got another chance Saturday. This week will begin to show how he uses it.

Will he take the high road?

Taking the high road could pay political dividends. Mr. Trump鈥檚 divisive style is one of his biggest drawbacks politically, and his supporters鈥� violent breach of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, after he spent months trying to overturn his election loss, still haunts his campaign.聽

The former president聽told the Washington Examiner that he鈥檇 completely rewritten his planned convention speech after the assassination attempt.聽鈥淭his is a chance to bring the whole country, even the whole world, together,鈥� he said.

A senior Trump campaign adviser told the Monitor: 鈥淕iven the experience of Saturday, he is looking to not only unify the party, but unify the nation, and make sure that Americans understand his vision for where the country can go.鈥�

But there鈥檚 skepticism that he and his team will exercise the restraint and discipline that this would require 鈥� and signs that they鈥檙e already falling back into old habits.聽After a Trump-appointed judge on Monday dismissed the charges the former president faced in a Florida court聽for mishandling classified documents, Mr. Trump wrote: 鈥淭he Democrat Justice Department coordinated ALL of these Political Attacks, which are an Election Interference conspiracy against Joe Biden鈥檚 Political Opponent, ME. Let us come together to END all Weaponization of our Justice System, and Make America Great Again!鈥澛�

Also on Monday morning, Trump campaign spokesperson Danielle Alvarez blasted 鈥淐rooked Joe Biden,鈥� saying it was 鈥渟hameful鈥� that he鈥檇 turned down an NBC-Telemundo debate offer focused on Hispanic issues, before saying the president was too cobarde (cowardly) to debate.

鈥淭rump has had several opportunities to surprise and go in a different direction that at least to outside observers would seem to be politically in his interest, and in the past he hasn鈥檛 taken those opportunities,鈥� says Peter Feaver, a Duke University professor who served on President George W. Bush鈥檚 National Security Council and has been critical of the former president.

鈥淭he track record shows he doesn鈥檛 stay a unifier for long,鈥� he says, pointing to Mr. Trump鈥檚 reaction to a white supremacist鈥檚 murder of a counterprotester during violence in Charlottesville, Virginia; his martial聽response to the Black Lives Matter protests in Washington, D.C.; and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic rhetorically. 鈥淭heir narrative of 鈥楬e鈥檚 the martyr; everyone is out to get him, and therefore, whatever he does in retaliation is acceptable鈥� 鈥� it鈥檚 very hard for them to go a whole week without that.鈥�

How VP pick, allies also set tone

Another signal is Mr. Trump鈥檚 decision to name Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate Monday, choosing a man with a penchant for sharp-elbowed rhetoric over two rhetorically sunnier options, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

This weekend,聽Senator Vance blamed Democrats for the attempt on Mr. Trump鈥檚 life.

鈥淭oday is not just some isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump鈥檚 attempted assassination,鈥� he posted on X.

Mr. Vance, a聽Marine veteran and Yale Law School graduate聽whose book 鈥淗illbilly Elegy鈥� tells his story of growing up amid poverty and drug abuse in Appalachia,聽is also a former Trump critic. In 2016, he聽warned about where Mr. Trump鈥檚 incendiary rhetoric was leading America.

Trump campaign co-chairs Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles sent an internal memo to staffers warning them not to use 鈥渄angerous rhetoric鈥� after the assassination attempt. 鈥淲e condemn all forms of violence, and will not tolerate dangerous rhetoric on social media,鈥� they wrote, according to Reuters.

Mr. LaCivita himself had posted on X blaming Democrats for the assassination attempt Saturday evening, but quickly deleted it.

But plenty of Mr. Trump鈥檚 other close allies were quick to ramp up the rhetoric after Saturday鈥檚 tragedy.

Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who has a prime-time Monday evening speaking slot at the Republican National Convention, immediately cast blame on President Biden鈥檚 recent rhetoric. 鈥淛ust days ago, Biden said 鈥業t鈥檚 time to put Trump in a bullseye,鈥欌�� she posted on X Saturday evening, in a remark widely cited by Republicans.

(Mr. Biden鈥檚聽fuller remarks聽indicate he was speaking rhetorically about refocusing criticism on Mr. Trump, but on Monday he said that it was a mistake to say he wanted to put a 鈥渂ullseye鈥� on the former president.)

Vivek Ramaswamy, a 2024 rival-turned-Trump acolyte who is also speaking at the convention, characterized the shooting as but the latest in a string of attempts to sideline the presumptive GOP nominee, including suing him and organizing legal challenges to having him on the ballot.

鈥淣o amount of verbiage today changes the toxic national climate that led to this tragedy,鈥� he posted on X after the shooting.

Biden: 鈥淒emocracy is on the ballot鈥�

There鈥檚 no doubt that many Democrats feel that Mr. Trump is an existential threat to democracy, given his own rhetoric and actions as well as a core political message pushed by Mr. Biden and his allies that Mr. Trump鈥檚 reelection could be the end of democracy.

Mr. Trump spent the 2016 campaign leading chants of 鈥淟ock her up鈥� about his political opponent, Hillary Clinton; tried to overturn his election loss in 2020 in efforts that led to the Capitol insurrection; and during the 2022 midterm elections tried (mostly unsuccessfully) to help election-denying allies win positions by which they could control future election results.

鈥淒emocracy is on the ballot. Your freedom is on the ballot,鈥� Mr. Biden said in a major January campaign speech, warning that Mr. Trump is 鈥渨illing to sacrifice democracy to put himself in power.鈥�

Mr. Trump鈥檚 base feels the same about Mr. Biden 鈥� and has been stirred by similar rhetoric from the ex-president.聽鈥淚f we don鈥檛 win this election, I don鈥檛 think you鈥檙e going to have another election in this country,鈥� he said in March.

But Mr. Trump has shown some previously uncharacteristic message discipline during this campaign, most recently following his debate with Mr. Biden in which he kept mostly quiet and instead let the story focus on Democrats鈥� dismay over Mr. Biden鈥檚 performance. The more he can maintain that, the better it might be for him politically 鈥� or at least for the country.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 know if it鈥檚 political advantage,鈥澛燫eince Priebus, chairman of the 2024 Republican National Convention host committee and Mr. Trump鈥檚 first White House chief of staff, told the Monitor. 鈥淚t could be American advantage.鈥�